Every crypto founder thinks they need to time their token launch around bull markets. I always tell them they're wrong, launch timing doesn't matter. They never believe me.
Well, I built a tool with Claude Code to analyze every token listing announced on the Binance blog to settle this once and for all.
Here's what I found:
Headline result: there is no statistically significant difference between tokens launched in bull vs bear markets (Mann-Whitney p = 0.81), meaning differences between bull and bear market tokens are indistinguishable from noise.
It doesn't matter when you launch your token.
How can I be sure of that?
First, you have to be careful how you answer this question: people believe that it's better to launch tokens in bull markets, and there's more funding in bull markets, so there are many more tokens launched in bull markets. Because of this sample bias, you can't naively look at the proportion of top 100 tokens that were launched in bull markets.
To correct for this, you need a clean selection criterion to compare the populations. The best dataset I found was looking at the Binance listings blog. Take every announced listing, tag them as during bull markets, bear markets, or neutral markets, and benchmark the relative performance of the bull vs bear populations. Filter out tokens that aren't independently priced (RWAs, stablecoins, LSTs etc.), and this gets you a total of ~200 tokens to benchmark.
See the website below to explore the data & methodology in more detail. This finding is robust to almost any way you slice and dice the data.
Now, if you're a founder, this analysis might not be the end of the story. Even if launching in a bear market doesn't predict long-term token performance, there are other advantages to launching in a bear market: less competition for talent, service providers are cheaper, exchange listings are less competitive. On the flipside, if you're doing a simultaneous token sale, you're likely to get more demand in a bull market.
But on the whole, these things are probably a wash. The main thing is to just get your product out there and build something valuable.
The example I always bring up to founders is that Solana launched 4 days after the COVID crash in 2020, when Bitcoin wicked down to $4K.
It doesn't matter that much when you launch. Just launch.
Clavicular is post-cancelled in the sense that they tried to cancel him for associating with Fuentes and Tate and he didn’t apologize for it yet it didn’t stop his ascent; and he is dissident in the sense that he doesn’t subscribe to progressive censorship rules, instead following personal values and free association. I proposed Clav to walk the NYFW show as part of our collab with Elena specifically for this reason, he’s the first new figure with cross-over appeal to push past an high profile attempted cancel, getting him into an institutional culture space like NYFW is a coup; besides his conceptual and aesthetic relevancy to our sustained engagement with dissident online subcultures and specifically looksmaxxing being the perfect intervention on fashion. Elena is one of the few seriously forward thinking designers in fashion and was fully into the suggestion immediately where almost anyone else would have balked at the idea, but I’m sure it was still a fight on her end to make happen, her and her team took real risks to cast him, and got hate from the still very conservatively leftist fashion world for it. You can argue Clav breaking into fashion modeling would have happened regardless but I’m doubtful, his casting, especially to close an opening show for NYFW, was a radical, controversial gesture for Elena to do and required her active advocacy to push through, likely even among some of her team and collaborators. The culture industries have been much more conservative in sticking to progressive censorship than general pop culture, you have to respect the risks people are taking to break it through. The rule is supposed to be if you talk to Fuentes, talk to Tate, etc. you’re cancelled, and now anyone that works with you will be cancelled too, like a virus isolating you from the culture industry; the rule getting broken breaks that spell. You can see in these caps, they’re also pissed we cast Dasha in the lookbook film for the collection, who was supposed to have had her career ended when they got her dropped from her agency, because she talked to Alex Jones or BAP or Fuentes or whatever else. She was supposed to be buried like Clav was supposed to be buried, but it’s not working anymore. Every example of a post-cancelled figure demonstrating immunity to cancel censorship undermines their ability to make others fear cancel by association. If they had the power they would blacklist Clav, Elena and Remilia permanently from fashion for this, just like they tried to do Dasha, and right now there are many running around trying everything they can to make it happen for Elena’s transgression. But there are thousands of more watching quietly trying to decide whether or not it’s yet safe to finally abandon the gestapo and join the resistance movement, knowing though they’ll get cancelled for it, too. It starts with those willing to take risks.
🚨 Quantum FUD is everywhere.
Bitcoin developers say the threat is theoretical, decades away, and solvable. No emergency. No panic.
Bitcoin has time. #Bitcoin can adapt. @nic_carter @fanquake @pwuille @achow101
@graminitha1 breaks it down👇
AI is mimicking your left brain not your right brain.
Your right brain holds the power of getting deeper insights, and intuitions.
Your right brain makes you feel more emotionally connected with the act.
Your right brain makes you feel more human.
Check which part of your brain is active now?
Right or left?
It’s very simply to identify that.
Place your fingers just below your nostrils, and try to observe the direction air on fingers, if you’re observing that it’s coming from left side of nostril than your right side of brain is active right now if not than your left side of brain is active right now.
you should ideally do creative work, travel and involve in any kind of human experience when your right brain is active, it will optimise your overall connection with the action, and that would also optimize the whole experience and its outcome.
(Lack of) Privacy may the missing link for crypto payments adoption.
Imagine, a company pays employees in crypto on-chain. With the current state of crypto, you can pretty much see how much everyone in the company is paid (by clicking the from address). 🤷♂️
