Notes

StableStock 上已有480多只可交易的股票和 ETF,今日新增标的: $UAL $DAL $AAL $AAOI $XYZ $RBLX
$UAL $DAL $AAL $AAOI $XYZ
-0.63%
$RBLX
14
美股崩盘真相撕开:AAOI和RKLB逆势暴涨,把99%投资者不愿承认的秘密暴露了 市场在跪,它们在飞。 崩盘现场:90% 股票血流成河,2 只却逆势暴涨 今日美股因中东紧张、油价狂飙、就业数据拉胯,道指重挫几百点,科技股集体"跪地"。但就在全场哀嚎时,两只股票却飘红坚挺: $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics)上涨 3.77%, $RKLB (Rocket Lab)上涨 2.43%。这不是"抗跌",这是彻底脱周期。 机构比你想的鸡贼多了 他们不需要裁员式甩卖周期股,只需要悄悄把钱砸进两个"永远不招人、只扩产"的超级刚需:一是 AI 基础设施,光模块就是数据高速公路;二是太空国防,小卫星加快速发射等于新冷战军备竞赛。成本更低、麻烦更少、回报指数级。 你寒窗苦读 K 线,它们在印钞 防御股(消费、金融、能源)在大跌中直接砍掉 14% 以上,看 GDP 脸色,经济衰退税拉胯。而 AI/太空双王在三个月内证明自己是"铁饭碗",连 GDP 脸色都不用交。讽刺的是:AI 能写代码、做分析、画图、建万卡集群,但端盘子、炒股、放贷款这些"老本行"在衰退里照样趴窝。 真相一:AAOI——AI 算力的"数据高速公路",不是可选,是必买 它不是什么概念股:全球少数能稳定量产 800G/1.6T 光模块的公司,直接卖给谷歌、Meta、微软这些超级云厂。为什么最硬?因为光模块是 10 万张 H100 显卡之间的"神经",没有它 AI 训练直接瘫痪;AI 资本开支是国家战略级投资,不是可砍的消费。数据说话:2025 全年营收 4.55 亿美元,2026 年第一季度指引 1.5-1.65 亿美元,全年目标 10 亿美金(数据中心占 70%)。机构鸡贼的地方在于,他们不等你反应,已经把 AAOI 当"管道卖家"锁仓了——管道永远比水更值钱。 真相二:RKLB——太空国防的"私人 SpaceX",订单铁板钉钉 它是什么?全球第二大商业发射公司。Electron 火箭一年发射 21 次,Neutron 中型火箭预计 2026 年底首飞,还自己造卫星、建地面站,闭环完成。为什么最硬?因为 90% 订单来自 NASA、太空发展局、五角大楼。刚签了 8.16 亿美金导弹跟踪卫星大单,这是国会预算,不是企业心情。中东越乱、台海越紧,国防预算越铁。机构又鸡贼了:他们不赌 SpaceX 一家独大,而是押注 RKLB"错位竞争"——小卫星加快速响应发射,SpaceX 忙不过来的,他们全吃。 小白最该醒悟的 3 个战略级认知 第一,趋势永远打败周期。传统股随 GDP 呼吸,而 AI 算力和太空经济是指数级增长。麦肯锡预测:太空经济 2035 年破 1 万亿美元,AI 投资 2026 到 2030 年复合增速 50% 以上。大跌只是噪音,趋势才是命。 第二,不对称回报就在眼前。上涨逻辑是订单加技术落地(真金白银),下跌逻辑却是散户恐慌(情绪垃圾)。情绪一修复,涨幅往往是指数级的。RKLB 过去一年涨 174%,AAOI 多次翻倍。 第三,地缘冲突反而是加速器。油价涨、通胀升,美国只会更狠推"技术自主加国防自主"。AAOI 本土产能、RKLB 政府合同,直接躺赢。 市场崩盘时,99% 的散户在恐慌抛售,1% 的战略玩家在悄悄捡"未来之王"。 $AAOI 和 $RKLB 今天站出来,不是运气,而是它们早就站在 AI 与太空两大文明新纪元的风口上。对于我们中文用户来说,这不是两只美股,而是一堂用美元资产对冲全球趋势的活教材。记住:真正的硬实力,从来不是 K 线多绿,而是底层逻辑多狠。把这份研报存下来,下次再跌就打开——你会发现,小白变老手,只需要一次真相撕开。
$AAOI $RKLB
10
$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell
$AAOI
10
1. 重点关注人工智能供应链中的活跃瓶颈 2. 然后重点关注资本轮动至台湾、日本、韩国
$NVDA
+5.46%
$AXTI $EWY
+1.41%
$XLU $MU
-18.09%
$SNDK
+2.35%
$LITE $TSM
-8.8%
$IQE $SIMO $COHR $AAOI $AMKR $ONTO $CAMT
-0.52%
$KLIC $FORM
-6.64%
$AEHR $EWJ
+1.4%
$HOOD
+0.85%
26
$AAOI +45% ✅
$AAOI
16
I gave you: $FORM +33% $ACMR +28% $CRDO +23% 084370 +18% $CAMT +18% $AAOI +16% $EME +16% $PBAB +14% $RMBS +8% $NVMI +4% $COHU +3% $CRML -15% time for stocks round 2?
$FORM
-6.64%
$ACMR $CRDO $CAMT
-0.52%
$AAOI $EME $PBAB $RMBS $NVMI $COHU $CRML
30
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024 • $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14 • $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40) • $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33 • $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105) • $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68) • $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183 • $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60) • $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80 • $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68) • $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50) • $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650 • $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29 • $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267 • $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41) • $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13) • $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16) • $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164
$AAOI $BIOA $BSIG $CARM $CCI $CNC
+1.02%
$DHI $EBAY $FAF
-2.84%
$IAC $IREN $MLM $MTG $PGR $PINS
+0.61%
$PTVE $RKT $TOL
46
#Upgrades - Sep 03, 2024 $BAC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $45 $WFC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $65 $DB: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight $V: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $325 $BAK: Bradesco BBI Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $8.50 $XPEV: Macquarie Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $10 $KOF: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $113.70 (from $108.30) $ADSK: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $299 (from $242) $IFF: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $120 (from $109) $RDFN: B.Riley Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $13 (from $7.50) $NCNO: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $38 $AAOI: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $17 $MTB: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $215 (from $183) $CPAY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform $ADSK: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $295 (from $225) $NTAP: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $150 (from $121) $U: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $22 $FRGE: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $3
$BAC
+16.09%
$WFC $DB $V
-9.69%
$BAK $XPEV $KOF $ADSK $IFF $RDFN $NCNO $AAOI $MTB $CPAY $NTAP $U
+0%
$FRGE
62
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