IRAN: WAR WITH US WILL BE A LESSON FOR TRUMP
Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, warned Sunday that any US attack on Iran would become “a lesson” for US President Donald Trump.
Speaking at a ceremony, Mousavi questioned Washington’s mixed messaging: “If Trump intends to go to war, why talk about negotiations?” He dismissed the president’s remarks as frivolous and said any confrontation would halt what he called US efforts to cause further instability.
A WEAKER DOLLAR WON’T DERAIL STOCKS, SAYS JPMORGAN
Investors worry that currency swings could hit equities. But analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. argue the opposite: a softer U.S. dollar should support stocks, not hurt them.
Despite recent volatility in commodities, bonds and crowded trades, economic momentum remains solid. Fed futures now price in roughly 55 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, reinforcing a supportive backdrop for risk assets.
The bank takes a bearish view on the dollar. Historically, dollar weakness has aligned with stronger equities — especially in emerging markets, where stocks tend to move closely with FX. JPMorgan is maintaining its bullish call on EM and commodity equities, advising investors to buy dips in metals.
In Europe, a stronger euro can weigh on earnings translation, since about 25% of revenues are dollar-based. However, JPMorgan notes that stronger growth during euro appreciation has often offset that drag. Cyclical sectors, in particular, have typically risen alongside the euro.
Bottom line: a softer dollar is more tailwind than threat for global equities.
WALL STREET BANKS ARE PAYING THEIR CEOS LIKE IT’S 2006 AGAIN
Top U.S. bank CEOs are earning $40 million or more again — the richest payouts since before the 2008 crisis.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon led the group at $47 million. Citigroup Inc. raised Jane Fraser’s pay to $42 million, and Bank of America Corp. lifted Brian Moynihan’s to $41 million.
The surge follows a banner year for banks, with strong profits from trading, lending and dealmaking. Unlike 2007 — when firms like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed — today’s payouts come under tighter rules shaped by the Dodd-Frank Act.
TRUTH SOCIAL FILES FOR TWO CRYPTO ETFs
Trump Media’s Truth Social Funds filed with the SEC for two cryptocurrency ETFs. One, the Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF, targets CRO plus staking rewards; the other, the Bitcoin and Ether ETF, tracks BTC and ETH plus Ether staking.
Crypto .com will handle custody, liquidity, and staking, while Yorkville America Equities advises the funds with a 0.95% fee. SEC approval is required before the ETFs can launch.
DETROIT AUTOMAKERS TAKE $50B HIT AS EV FRENZY FIZZLES
U.S. automakers are facing major losses as electric-vehicle hype fades. The Detroit Big Three—GM, Ford, and Stellantis—announced over $50 billion in EV-related write-downs after Q4 sales fell 30% following the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax credit.
GM continues scaled-back EV production, while Ford pivots to a single low-cost EV pickup by 2027. Stellantis offloaded its battery stake, citing a misjudged pace of the energy transition.
Federal tax credit cuts and relaxed efficiency mandates, combined with weak demand, have forced project cancellations, layoffs, and a shift back to gas-powered vehicles. Meanwhile, EV markets grow abroad: China’s BYD delivered over one million vehicles internationally, surpassing Tesla.
$AMZN - AMAZON FACES LONGEST SLUMP SINCE 2006
Amazon shares are on track for their longest losing streak in nearly 20 years, down 0.8% Friday and nine days in a row. The stock has lost 18%, erasing $470 billion in value, as investors fret over $200 billion in planned 2026 spending on data centers, chips, and AI.
“Negative cash flow at this scale is a major red flag,” says Ameriprise strategist Anthony Saglimbene. Big tech’s $650 billion AI spend next year also fuels concerns. Amazon is down 17% this month, its worst since April 2022, with the Nasdaq 100 down 3.2%.
🚨SCOTUS MAY ISSUE TARIFF OPINION FEB. 20
The U.S. Supreme Court has scheduled Feb. 20 for opinions, raising the possibility of a ruling on a high-profile tariffs case. Additional opinion days are set for Feb. 24 and 25, keeping markets and policymakers alert for potential guidance on trade policy.
Kalshi traders now give just 28.8% chance that the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs
Check live:
https://t.co/51TLy8sqI1
US EASES SANCTIONS ON VENEZUELA ENERGY
The U.S. Treasury Department issued two new licenses allowing companies to resume operations and make new investments in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector.
Authorized firms include Chevron ( $CVX), BP ( $BP.L), ENI ( $ENI.MI), Repsol ( $REP.MC), and Shell.
Transactions by companies based in Russia, Iran, or China remain prohibited, and new investments require separate Treasury permits.
BITCOIN’S $60K LEVEL SEEN AS LIQUIDATION TRIGGER
Bitcoin faces a key test at $60,000, with options and loans suggesting a breach could spark forced selling and sharp volatility.
Deribit data shows the largest cluster of put options pays off below $60K, near the 200-week moving average at $58K — a crucial technical support. Loans tied to Bitcoin would automatically liquidate collateral if prices dip, potentially triggering a cascade of deleveraging.
Bitcoin traded around $67,000 on Friday, down ~47% from its October peak. Analysts warn a break below $60K could push it toward $50K, where the second-highest put open interest lies. Open interest in $60K puts totals $1.24B.
Market sentiment is heavily bearish. Experts say a sustained drop below $60K/$58K could fuel another 20% correction, while any relief rallies remain fragile.
MARKETS PRICE 50% CHANCE OF THIRD FED CUT
US Treasuries jumped as core CPI rose 0.3% in January, in line with expectations, easing inflation concerns and boosting bets on further Fed rate cuts.
Yields on two-year notes fell to 3.40%, the lowest since October. Traders now see roughly 50% odds of a third 25-basis-point cut by year-end, down slightly from earlier expectations.
Economists note the inflation print is encouraging but caution the Fed remains focused on the labor market after strong January jobs data. While a couple more cuts seem reasonable, some warn the market may be overestimating easing this year.
PENTAGON TARGETS CHINESE COMPANIES SUPPORTING MILITARY
The Pentagon has added several Chinese firms to its list of companies aiding the military:
Alibaba ( $BABA)
BYD ( $BYDDY)
Baidu ( $BIDU)
COSCO ( https://t.co/G9gsxivi0B)
Huawei (private)
NIO Inc ( $NIO)