$CVX: Reaching TP1 with confirmed bullflag breakout. I spoke about it a month ago and shared the buy set up. Since then it moved up 23% and there is no stop in sight, Chevron is the big winner of the Oil crisis.
#DUBAI: EXPOSING "PANICSELLING" WEBSITE
Its time to expose all the lies that are being spread about the UAE real estate market. I am going to expose them one by one and leave absolutely no room for any kind of FUD by presenting proof and real data. Exposing the news website PANICSELLING: this person is a grandiose manipulator, feeding lies to the sheep and the intellectually lazy crowd. To understand the manipulation you first need to understand how this so-called system works. This AI tool simply scans existing listings and triggers a “distress” or “panic sell” alert once a seller reduces his asking price. But anyone with even basic understanding of Dubai luxury real estate knows that asking prices are almost always 10–15% above the latest transaction prices.
Thanks to Dubai's real estate transparency we can directly compare the last recorded transactions with current listings. So for example, if a unit in the same building with the same view last transacted around 8.5M AED, the next seller might list his unit for 10M AED, roughly 17% higher than the previous transaction, which is completely normal especially when the market previously favored buyers. Now sellers see a wave of negative news and FUD circulating, so those who genuinely want to sell start adjusting their asking price closer to the last transaction level of 8.5M. The moment this happens the fake news AI flags it as a 15% “price drop” and the panic narrative begins spreading. In reality the seller simply adjusted an inflated asking price back toward the last transaction level, but the AI calculates it as a crash. It is completely normal to see listings 10–15% above recent transactions. I will prove this point clearly. I am not someone throwing empty words into the air, I let the data speak. And to make it absolutely fair I am not cherry-picking anything. I am taking the top three examples from his own website, the exact listings he labels as “panic sells”, and exposing the manipulation step by step.
Example 1, ranked as first on his website:
The first listing is an off-plan villa in Maha, Expo Valleys with a 13,000 sqft plot. The original asking price was an INSANE INFLATED 26.5M AED and the seller reduced it by 15.4% down to 22.4M AED. Now let’s compare this to the actual transactions of the same villa type in the same community with very similar plot sizes. Al Maha in Expo Valleys shows transactions ranging between 13.8M and 18.166M AED depending on plot size, with all recorded transactions coming from 2023 and 2024. There are no transactions in 2025 or 2026 because the project is still under construction and not even completed yet. Despite that, the seller is still asking around 22.4M AED which is roughly 40% higher than the average of the last transactions. So I ask a simple question: where exactly is the distress here?
Example 2, ranked second on his website:
The second listing on his website is a villa in Jumeirah Park District 6. The website screams about a 21% price drop. The seller initially listed the villa for 18.5M AED, an absolutely insane price, and later came back to reality and reduced it to 14.5M AED. The bot instantly flags this as a 20% market crash. But look at the real data. In the same district 6 with identical plot sizes between 10–13k sqft only four comparable villas were sold. The most recent transaction happened in January 2026 for 11.375M AED. Even after the so-called “panic drop” the seller is still asking 14.5M AED, which is roughly 27% higher than the most recent transaction just two months ago. Other units with almost identical plots in the same area sold between 9M and 10M over the past three years. Again, where exactly is the distress?
Example 3, ranked third on his website:
Now let’s continue with another example just below it. This same website claims a massive 35% price drop for a 2BR unit in Dubai Hills. Once again the manipulation is obvious. The seller originally listed the apartment at a ridiculous 8.5M AED. Meanwhile recent transactions in the exact same building show prices between 3.5M AED for back-view units and around 4.5M AED for park-view units. Since this unit is a park view, the seller eventually reduced his unrealistic asking price by 35% from 8.5M AED to 5.5M AED. The website proudly calls this a market crash. But even after the “drop” the seller is still asking 5.5M AED which is about 22% higher than the most recent transactions that happened even one month ago in February, and sold around 4.5M AED for the same park view units. So I ask you a very simple question: is the website insane, or are the people blindly believing this narrative insane? One thing is certain, my words are based on real transaction data, not manipulated AI headlines. And if needed I can continue exposing these examples until tomorrow.
There are many more FAKE NEWS stories spreading right now. Another very famous one is the chart that supposedly shows the Dubai real estate market crashing. Do you want me to expose that one as well?
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know🚩
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: In last Month’s Sunday report at 65K, I made it very clear that a new box is forming. I expect Bitcoin to move sideways between 57k and 87k, a 33% range, as already stated. This sideways phase is not bullish, it is the preparation for whats coming in the next months. I expect a leg down after this phase, with a breakdown from the box toward lower targets in the coming months of 44-50k region. One year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year moving inside a box between 58k and 74k. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this box had three main purposes. The most important one was the drawing of future reference lines for the next bear market. I said many times that the 2024 box would play a key role again during the 2026 bear market, in the same price areas. That is exactly what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone where it previously consolidated for an entire year before breaking higher toward 100k. In a bear market context, this same zone is not support, it is structure, and structure eventually breaks. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown below the box.
Bitcoin is entering the phase of relief phase, means sideway move for several weeks with potential bullish moves as shown in the upside potential box. Please compare the charts with 2022, we are repeating the exact move of 2022 in which BTC went down 52% from its ATH, beofre it went up 44% from its low, before the next and strong leg down. Exaclty as what we saw right now! An exact repeat of 2022! Both went down exactly 52% from ATH, and now is the time to start the sideway move. This means Bitcoin that is following the same fractal and has strong upside potential for the coming months before continue going down lower than 60k. The market psycology supports this idea as well as everyone is now scared and the fear and greed is at absolute extreme fear. Before the new leg down happens we need to create additional liquidity in the downside and take the liquidity that was built to the upside. Remember, markets are mainly all about liquidity taking and now is a good time for market makers to send BTC into a relief mode, before the bear market continues.
Current Plan and Range Logic: I am expecting a large sideways movement between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. A buy order was hit few weeks ago at 60k and most recently I have bought at 68k. It is critical to understand that the bottom of the box does not mean the final bottom for Bitcoin. It means the bottom of the current phase. I buy 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for the long term plan as I usually do.
As an example, Bitcoin is already up roughly 12% up from the 60k buy entry I shared a few weeks ago, and 2% down from the recent 68k buy order. Does this mean 88k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two simple things. First, Bitcoin between 57k and 60k is in a recovery and bounce phase, which usually includes sideways action. Second, the highest level I expect Bitcoin could reach during this phase is around 88k, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows a visit to the 88k area, I am open to adding more to my existing shorts that were opened between 115k and 125k and are still fully held.
Positioning and Execution: Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it is very simple. I am holding shorts from 115k–125k. At the same time, I placed multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k, in addition to the recent 68k buy order. I plan to hold these gains because I expect continued sideways action and no immediate further downside in the coming weeks. I consider 57k–60k the local bottom, not the macro bottom, and I expect this area to be tested multiple times. That is exactly why buying there makes sense to me. There is no reason to sell while upside potential remains. When the moment to sell comes, I will metion once I sold or planning to sell.
Bitcoin will move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower, between the 50k level and into the low 40s. That is where I will re-enter with serious size for the next cycle, while taking profits from the 115k–125k short, and thats the area I believe Bitcoin will be finally bottomed out. This area is expected to be hit in September-October as my calculations show, in the meantime? A long and boring sideway as mentioned exactly one month ago.
Why I am Buying Now in a Bear Market? Some ask why I am buying now if I expect Bitcoin to eventually bottom below 50k. The answer is simple: markets do not move in straight lines. Even in bear markets, there are powerful counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k almost without pause. Then, within two months, it rallied from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% move, before continuing down to the final bottom at 16k. This is how markets work. We are in a bear market. The bounces are temporary and exist to build liquidity for further downside. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, in the 40s area. That is where my largest positions will be built. Until then, my short from 115k–125k remains fully open. I am not longing with leverage. I am buying spot between 57k and 60k while keeping the short open.
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#Bitcoin: The crowd’s average IQ on this platform is shockingly low. I bought at 68k for a quick gain and made it crystal clear that my short from 125k remains fully open. Those are two completely different positions. Anyone with a functioning brain should understand that.
Second: I never said I longed at 68k. I said I bought spot using available stablecoins to secure some percentage gains. That is not the same as opening a leveraged long. The fact that this needs to be explained shows exactly the level of understanding we are dealing with.
Yesterday I posted about the Great Financial Crisis starting. That is a long-term macro view. It has absolutely nothing to do with short-term price action or a temporary spot position taken at 60k–68k.
Yet people immediately panic and scream: “But yesterday you said you longed at 68k.”
No. You simply cannot read.
It was never a long, it was spot accumulation for a short-term move, and I explained this very clearly. I also said that after this short-term bullish trap / relief rally, the bear market continues. If that basic market structure already overwhelms you, trading is probably not the field you should be in. We are within a strong bear market for Bitcoin but for the short term there is a lot of upside potential and potential to reach even 88k. I will not sit out on this opportunity and grabbing a spot position while the big short position from 125k remains fully open and untouched.
#Dubai: Jealousy is a very bad thing and I see many sub humans cheering and are happy for what’s happening in Dubai. Let me remind you that even WITH the war, Dubai remains more safe than most of European cities!
A friend called me today and was upset that he can’t be back here because of the closed airspace. He just went for few weeks to Europe and can’t take it anymore. He told me the second the airspace is open again, he will book a flight and be back right away
You can’t understand it from the outside. It’s something you have to experience yourself. Everyone who actually lives here knows what I mean. The energy, the mindset, the way things work, it’s just different. I’ve been to many places, and the UAE has a feeling that’s hard to put into words.
Stay safe, everyone. We are all human our blood is the same color. Don’t act superior or hate others for their success. Stay a loser if you must, but don’t wish for others’ destruction.
I warned @saylor many times that constantly buying Bitcoin nonstop and backing it with his own company shares is playing with fire. I tried to be a helpful friend, tried to help him see the risk, he decided to ignore and backfire on my warnings by calling my warnings nothing but crap, which is something I want to recall now:
Since those warnings, Strategy is down around 75% from its highs and Bitcoin dropped about 52% from its peak. His reported average BTC entry is around $76k and with BTC currently near $66k that puts the position roughly 13% below cost. Since they started buying in 2020, they never realized meaningful profits, never made serious strategic selling decisions, and since 2020 they are overall -13% in loss. Meanwhile their stock is in a non stop continued downside move and reached -75% so far. MSTR investors are suffering the volatility. Saylor was already one of the biggest losers of the dot-com bubble in 2000. I even told him that with the current AI bubble he risks repeating history in 2026. Instead of reducing exposure, he doubled down and kept buying more BTC while ignoring warning signs. I truly wish MSTR and Saylor the best, but I cannot understand how reckless this trading approach is in such a late-cycle environment. Markets reward discipline, not blind believe in Bitcoin. There is always time to buy and time to sell. I hope he will listen next time instead of mocking my warnings.
Best regards, DrProfit.
#Bitcoin – Special Weekly Report:
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 out of 6 in the current bear market: These six stages are my own framework, developed through direct observation of every major Bitcoin bull and bear market so far. The structure repeats because the underlying drivers repeat: liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and predictable human behavior under stress and current panic.
Stage 1: Euphoric market and insane buying appetite:
This is what happened between 115k and 125k. The first stage mainly ends with extended sideways movement at euphoric levels, often biased in one direction, or with sudden spikes to the upside after a long consolidation despite extreme bullish sentiment. On the surface, everything looks strong, but in reality the market is overloaded and overleveraged, with late entrants who believe risk has disappeared. Insane price predictions happen here, and people reach the highest level of greed.
Stage 2: Breakdown of a highly important psychological level:
This stage begins once we drop below an important psychological mark, which in this cycle was 100k. The psychological level is extremely important because its loss stresses short-term investors and flushes out leverage traders, giving them the first warning signs that their euphoric dream from Stage 1 is over. The speed of the second move is noticeable and intentional. It happens very quickly and does not allow investors to rethink, recalculate, or properly manage their positions. The market acts before they can react. It front-runs them, and many lose control here. The best example was the fast crash on the 10th of October, which caused the largest liquidation event in crypto history. It happened within a few hours.
Stage 3: The fastest and most brutal move + bear market confirmation:
After Stage 2, the market needs to move even faster. Market makers cannot allow retail to realize what is happening; the speed needs to be maintained, so an even more brutal downside move follows. Stage 3 is the fastest of all phases and fully confirms the bear market with an extreme and rapid downside move, typically exceeding a 50% drawdown from the all-time high, which has been the case. In this scenario, investors are in deep depression and strong panic. They had no time to recalculate, hedge correctly, or reduce leverage. They are sitting on losses they never prepared for. I consider Stage 3 the most brutal phase of a bear market. It happens very fast and removes reaction time. The move from 97k in January to 60k in February, a crash of 50% within only 30 days, reflects that brutality. Many have not realized that nearly 50% of BTC’s market cap was wiped out within 30 days. The most violent mechanical repricing is likely behind us, and we have now entered Stage 4, which brings retail into psychological torture.
Stage 4: Dehydration, depression, and perfect liquidity creation:
This is where we are now. Stage 4 is not very violent or volatile, but it is extremely exhausting. The price moves sideways for a long period, often several months, within its own defined region. This is why I defined the current sideways structure and drew the “box,” showing clear upside and downside boundaries. You could also describe this as a weak-hands selling zone. A sideways move allows market makers to generate liquidity on both the upside and downside by trapping breakout traders and breakdown sellers. Sideways does not mean nothing is happening in the market, that is what retail sees when markets move sideways for a long time, but the message is much bigger. It means the market is preparing to exhaust participants fully while creating a large cluster of liquidity below the current zone, an area defined as the future capitulation region. This phase creates dehydration, frustration, regret, and anxiety. Retail traders start saying, “Bitcoin will drop another 30–40%; it’s better to sell here.” Many think the same way. Most short-term holder capitulation happens in Stage 4. Retail traders exit here because they missed selling in Stage 1, failed to sell in Stage 2, and had no time to react in Stage 3. Now they sell at a loss, as on-chain data confirms. Based on the data I see, the breakdown below the box that will bring us into Stage 5 is more likely to happen in a few months, not in the coming weeks. For the short term, I have placed buy orders between 57–60k within the current sideways structure and expect a bounce in the short to mid term. This does not change my broader outlook of lower targets.
Stage 5: Total fear, drama, and capitulation:
This is the true capitulation phase. It is not always the fastest move, but it is the most emotional one. Fear turns into panic, and panic turns into forced selling, even among experienced long-term holders. This stage is often connected with the collapse of a large player, an exchange failure, or a black swan event. It is remarkable to see panic selling after an asset is already down 50–70% from its all-time high, yet this phenomenon repeats every cycle. Originally, I projected the bottom between 50–60k when BTC was trading at 120k. In January, I adjusted this to 40–50k. With current macro data and visible stress in global markets, including the REPO and liquidity markets, I now consider 35–45k as the ultimate bottom scenario. That implies another significant downside from current levels, where the final capitulation is likely to play out.
Stage 6: Stabilization and structural reversal:
This final stage is a mix of total fear, volatility, and continued sideways movement. Selling pressure gradually disappears, and the market begins building the foundation for the next bullish cycle. Structurally, market makers prepare for recovery. This is the moment when large players begin accumulating heavily during capitulation, while retail investors scream for lower and lower prices, calling for extreme targets such as 10k or below. Retail becomes greedy again for lower prices and ultimately misses the bottom, a perfect repeat of every cycle in which retail investors buy high and sell low.
Right now, we are in Stage 4. The worst in terms of high-speed mechanical downside is likely behind us, but the real psychological damage phase has just begun. Regret increases. People rethink their decisions. They calculate exit plans that come too late. This is the reason why we have seen the largest short-term holder capitulation in the last few days. The key lesson remains simple: never let the market trade you; you trade the market. When price moves fast, reaction time disappears. When price moves slowly, discipline disappears. Understanding these stages allows you to operate structurally rather than emotionally. My heavy accumulation will begin between Stage 5 and Stage 6, not before. This pattern has repeated across every Bitcoin cycle so far. Human behavior is an architecture repeating under different market conditions, but the architecture itself always remains the same.
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#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Psychological Breakdown
In last week’s Sunday report at 78k, I made it very clear that a new box is forming. I expect Bitcoin to move sideways between 57k and 87k, a 33% range, as already stated. This sideways phase is not bullish, it is the preparation for whats coming in the next months. I expect a leg down after this phase, with a breakdown from the box toward lower targets in the coming weeks or months of 44-50k region.
One year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year moving inside a box between 58k and 74k. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this box had three main purposes. The most important one was the drawing of future reference lines for the next bear market. I said many times that the 2024 box would play a key role again during the 2026 bear market, in the same price areas. That is exactly what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone where it previously consolidated for an entire year before breaking higher toward 100k. In a bear market context, this same zone is not support, it is structure, and structure eventually breaks. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown below the box.
Current Plan and Range Logic
I am expecting a large sideways movement between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. It is critical to understand that the bottom of the box does not mean the final bottom for Bitcoin. It means the bottom of the current phase. I buy 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for the long term plan as I usually do. As an example, Bitcoin is already up roughly 16% from the 60k buy entry I shared a few days ago.
Does this mean 87k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two simple things. First, Bitcoin between 57k and 60k is in a recovery and bounce phase, which usually includes sideways action. Second, the highest level I expect Bitcoin could reach during this phase is around 87k, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows a visit to the 87k area, I am open to adding more to my existing shorts that were opened between 115k and 125k and are still fully held.
Positioning and Execution
Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it is very simple. I am holding shorts from 115k–125k. At the same time, I placed multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k. Some of these orders were triggered around 60k and are already up around 16%. I plan to hold these gains because I expect continued sideways action and no immediate further downside in the coming weeks. I consider 57k–60k the local bottom, not the macro bottom, and I expect this area to be tested multiple times. That is exactly why buying there makes sense to me. There is no reason to sell while upside potential remains. When the moment to sell comes, I will metion once I sold or planning to sell. Bitcoin will move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower, between the 50k level and into the low 40s. That is where I will re-enter with serious size for the next cycle, while taking profits from the 115k–125k short, and thats the area I believe Bitcoin will be finally bottomed out. This area is expected to be hit in September-October as my calculations show, in the meantime? A long and boring sideway as mentioned above.
Why I am Buying Now in a Bear Market
Some ask why I am buying now if I expect Bitcoin to eventually bottom around 54k–44k. The answer is simple: markets do not move in straight lines. Even in bear markets, there are powerful counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k almost without pause. Then, within two months, it rallied from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% move, before continuing down to the final bottom at 16k. This is how markets work.
We are in a bear market. The bounces are temporary and exist to build liquidity for further downside. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, in the 40s area. That is where my largest positions will be built. Until then, my short from 115k–125k remains fully open. I am not longing with leverage. I am buying spot between 57k and 60k while keeping the short open.
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#Bitcoin - Preparing buy orders
Already in 2024, I said that the box plays a central role during bull market phases. At the same time the box is created, it is designed and drawn forward-looking by the market makers, with a clear view toward 2026. The purpose of the box is the creation of renewable liquidity, which is needed for every cycle, whether bull or bear. The new box spans 33%, from 87k down to 57k. For some, this may sound large, but in 2024 Bitcoin moved for an entire year within a 27% range. It’s not important to understand the range but to understand its borders and move at the outskirts of the trades, not within.
The direction of the lines is irrelevant. These support zones are purely imaginary, designed to trigger breakouts above and below renewable liquidity, allowing both major clusters to be hit over the cycle.
In other words:
Placing buy orders between: 57–60k: BIG BUY, planning to hold for 2–3 months if market allows to visit, not interested to buy higher than that! I consider 57-60k as great entry to make money for the short term and gain some serious % before we continue going down. Because of this, I keep my Bitcoin short from 115-125k fully open! The markets remain very bearish and we are in front of the great financial crisis I have spoken about in September 2025! Keeping the trade short term only as its playing with fire, but risk reward looks worth it from my perspective. My orders are set!
Welcome to $70,000
Exactly as predicted ✅
THE BIG SHORT – OVERVIEW
This overview shows ALL Big Short trades taken so far. Nothing is hidden. The list includes every single position, whether it is still open or already closed via stop loss, whether shared in public or in the premium membership only. In total, the Big Short consists of 14 trades. Out of those, 9 trades are currently in profit, while 5 trades are in small to medium drawdown.
Overall performance is very strong. Some positions delivered exceptional returns, such as +240% on the MicroStrategy short, +215% on Coinbase, +150% on Palantir, and +170% on Bitcoin.
The losing trades are limited and well controlled, especially when compared to the size of the winning trades. This is exactly how a strong short strategy is supposed to work: small losses, big wins. Keeping the shorts on stock open!
$CVX (Chevron Corporation Stock):
Since 2022, this stock has been trading in a sideways accumulation range, not a normal range, but one forming a gigantic bull flag. This bull flag broke out this week. All eyes are now on this stock. I have bought some. High potential to turn into a golden stock in the coming weeks. Let’s see where the party goes. Mid-risk trade, no financial advice. Despite my very bearish stance, there are still some stocks that can perform for many reasons this is one of them. I bought it.
This signal was shared in Premium a week ago at $166. It is already up 7% since I bought and shared it with Premium members. Whoever is not in premium is and will always regret!
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Two weeks ago in the Sunday report at 95k I said the following: “Bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways consolidation, which is still bearish, and it is only a matter of time before we visit targets below 80k. For now, we remain in this sideways phase exactly as predicted in November when I said the sideways phase is going to start, but the next leg down is inevitable.” This is what was said two weeks ago at 95k, and it played out perfectly. BTC is now below 80k as promised, and with this move Bitcoin did something HIGHLY important this week. Of course, once again most people are sleeping on it, but Bitcoin just lost the MA100 Weekly, the key indicator that confirms whether we are in a bull or bear market. Bitcoin was holding strong above the purple line which is the MA100 Weekly, but lost it this week! As seen on the chart, in October 2023 we got the first confirmation of the bull market when BTC broke above the MA100 weekly (purple line). However, now, two years later and perfectly aligning with the BTC bull cycle, Bitcoin has lost this extremely important level, confirming a move into a bear market. Another great confirmation for Bitcoin bear market theory is the confirmation of the death cross which is currently unfolding right in front of us. (Read the Death cross report here: https://t.co/3bTqQm0Qep). This aligns perfectly with the 2021–2022 cycle top and its aftermath. Yet most people completely ignore it. This has been my personal observation and long-term view, which I already shared months ago at ATH levels between 115–125k, where I repeatedly warned that the bear market had started. Now you understand why.
It is insane to see how Bitcoin broke below this level with such violence. This breakdown is also the confirmed breakout from the bearish flag I mentioned repeatedly over the last 2–6 weeks. I am more than confident that Bitcoin will also close the coming week below the purple line (MA100 Weekly), begin another consolidation phase, and then continue with the next leg down toward my 70k target. The 70k target is not the bottom, as I already mentioned months ago my bottom theory between 50–60k, which I first shared at 115–125k. That theory has proven correct, but I now need to make a crucial update to my bottom prediction.
Back in September, at the 115–125k region, I stated that I expected BTC to bottom around 50–60k for this cycle. However, after recalculating and updating my models, I am now spotting even lower prices. My new bottom zone aligns with all my current data and gives a clear and clean outcome: the true bottom is likely between 54–44k, which is insane considering today’s sentiment and price levels.
Another important point: BTC has now fallen below MicroStrategy’s average entry price, which sits around $76,000. Expect fear and panic to intensify in the coming weeks. I warned Michael Saylor publicly to sell Bitcoin in time and take profits on the phenomenal gains he refused, stating he would never sell BTC. I seriously question how this is possible in a credit-based system, considering a large portion of MSTR’s BTC was acquired using leverage, while their stock, used as collateral, continues to devalue. With BTC now sitting below their average entry, stabilizing the stock becomes MUCH more difficult. Since MSTR started buying BTC in 2020, their total BTC position is now roughly +/- 0% on a full profit and loss basis. Even the worst ETF would have performed better, and even holding cash in a bank would have generated yield. MSTR never took profits, ever. This means we cannot even argue that their BTC position was funded by realized BTC gains. This will become a major lesson for Saylor, just as he already experienced during the dot-com bubble, where he suffered one of the largest losses of that era. I warned him multiple times, and he ignored every warning. Now expect fear and FUD to escalate further.
Additional panic will also emerge from the release of the Epstein files and rumors linking Epstein to Bitcoin in some way. Personally, I doubt that even if such claims were true they would materially impact Bitcoin, but the masses will run with this narrative regardless, adding more FUD and emotional selling. Overall, I remain extremely bearish and expect continued downside, fully confirming the Bitcoin bear market and validating the theory I shared at 115–125k that the top was already in. With these confirmations, there is no doubt that Bitcoin is in a bear market, and the existing outlook remains fully valid. To understand why Bitcoin is in a bear market, revisit the October report: https://t.co/xwgdhlWIqR
Summary:
- BTC lost the MA100 Weekly, EXTREME critical market indicator, another confirmation about the bear market
- Bottom expectations revised lower: new projected cycle low sits in the 54k–44k region in my opinion
- BTC falling below MSTR’s ~$76k average entry adds risk, fear, and continued downside pressure
- Overall outlook remains extremely bearish, fully validating the 115–125k cycle-top call and ongoing downside
-Keeping the short from 115-125k fully open, not thinking to take any profits at all.
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#SILVER - WHAT HAPPENED TODAY?
The reason for the sharp fall was nothing more than extreme sized short positions that entered the futures market, pressuring the price down sharply. Coming to this conclusion is pretty simple by watching the futures volume, but to verify further its important to watch, and I noticed some very interesting pattern, the pattern that confirms my thesis that some shorts needed an exit. And it was given to them today in both markets, Shanghai and COMEX:
What exactly happened today? As per Shanghai, I did not see large physical silver withdrawals worth mentioning, meaning no physical silver changed hands during today’s downside move. So what happened?
First, the silver price was heavily pressured down by empty paper shorts. Even in Shanghai, the futures market is backed by paper rather than physical, something many tend to miss. SGE1!, however, is 100% backed by physical silver bars. However, NON PHYSICAL silver did change hands today: (531 tonnes) of silver contracts were traded in Shanghai. This reflects short positions being closed and transferred to new long holders, with buyers stepping in as sellers exited their shorts at lower prices 10-15% below daily open. No physical silver left vaults today, this is not a bearish sign at all. This was a paper / spot-deferred position transfer, not a physical delivery many would fear.
Again, this is active movement in the derivative market. So the structure of what happened was: first, heavy paper pressure, second, shorts used the drop to exit, third, buyers absorbed everything, and fourth very important: no confirmed physical liquidation. In my opinion, what happened today was a paper-driven shakeout with continued accumulation. The COMEX data is always published one business day later, so expect the data on Monday, while we have Shanghai report already and it speaks a clear language.
Also, it is very interesting timing to see the same manipulation repeatedly happening at month-end, just like last month on December 31, when silver dropped around 15% in one day before continuing its run. Guess what happened on that same day as well: the Standing Repo handed out record amounts of USD to banks. Again, guess what those banks are actively involved in heavy silver shorts. The data is public for everyone to see on FRED and CME. There is a strong relationship between end-of-month lending for balance-sheet purposes and the ability to enter large-sized price suppressions at month-end. This pattern is very obvious and aligns with my theory that banks are in extreme and serious trouble, not only because of tight liquidity, but because the next risk is coming from Silver. One of the major reasons for the expected financial crisis and stock market crash I am predicting and shorting since several months with great profits on several trades posted such as PLTR, NFLX, MSFT, COIN, MSTR and many more, open since several months already.. (Only posted in premium: https://t.co/TvHxOtJJRL)
Nothing changes the fact that physical silver remains very bullish and highly demanded. I am not willing to sell at $85, and I don’t know anyone who is willing to sell their rare metal at such a price. Monday will be a very interesting day for many reasons. The U.S. market closed at $84, while Shanghai closed near $122. We are talking about a historic gap of 44%. On Monday, dealers around the world will need to decide at what price they are willing to sell physical ounces. Let me remind you that physical silver was sold at $120–$130 in recent weeks, reaching $150 in Tokyo as well, and it is sold out at most dealers, so why should the dealers lower their prices if demand remains same or even higher?
Shanghai and COMEX needed a safe exit from their short positions and thats what its all about, and I believe the coming weeks will show us why. This brings me to the conclusion: the purpose of this move was clear, the market understands that silver is in a strong bull run and shorts have started to capitulate. I remain very bullish, as I was at $20. We hit my target of $100, and I personally expect $130-150 in a matter of time.
Reference for above data provided by Shanghai market: https://t.co/BGUqL1o27Z)
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
VERY IMPORTANT CHART 🚨
I have shared this $GOLD/ $BTC chart almost a year ago, pointing out that once 0.02 Bitcoin equal 1 gold ounce, it should be considered the top for BTC, and 0.11 BTC equal 1 gold ounce should be considered the bottom for BTC! This happened in 2021 during the Bitcoin top, and during the Bitcoin bottom in 2022. Again, my analysis proved right this year by calling the Bitcoin top at $125,000 at a price of 0,02 BTC for one Gold ounce! Will we see the Bitcoin bottom again at 0.11 BTC for one Gold ounce ?
If we do the math, 1 BTC = $5,500 (gold price) / 0.11 ≈ $50,000, which matches my analysis of Bitcoin’s bottom for this cycle between $50k–$60k. It is playing out exactly as expected. If we calculate with a gold price of $7,000, the equivalent BTC bottom comes in around $63,000, which also aligns with my bottom target. In my opinion, Gold will continue to outperform BTC in the coming months.
This is no financial advice and educational content only
