Had a great debate with @arjunsethi from Kraken at NEARCON about when AI agents will actually be ready to manage real capital.
My take: agent reliability is a step function.
At 90% accuracy, it's a cool demo, but doesn't really change anything. Even at 98%, it's not good enough. But at 99.8%, it changes everything.
Right now we're still around 90%, which puts us in the "cool experiment" territory, but you can see it starting to poke through. That's why everyone's excited; we're rapidly ascending the reliability curve. But we're not there yet.
Think self-driving cars circa 2017. Small pockets of places willing to try them, frequent failures, high risk tolerance, human drivers as guardrails. That's where we are right now with "self-driving wallets."
Arjun says he'd put 100% of his crypto into an AI agent within 6-12 months. I don't believe it. 2 years, maybe. But I'll be checking back in 12 months!
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