The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).
I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt. After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above 65k and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly.
BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling.
Most Bitcoiners think BTC is a safe haven asset but the truth is nuanced.
It has the properties of a safe haven asset. In times of war you can take your seed phrase, cross borders and start afresh without losing your wealth.
It should be independent of the system and thrive if it collapses. These are the properties you’d expect of a safe haven.
BTC has the properties of a safe haven but to this day, in times of uncertainty and war it trades like a risk asset, very sensitive to uncertainty.
This is because the large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested. Hence it trades like the NASDAQ.
It’ll take another decade for it to gain market acceptance as a safe haven, maybe longer. When it does, it’ll give gold market cap a run for its money.
Gold has 15-20 yrs left before technology rugs its scarcity.
BTC has 5-10 yrs to get past post quantum after that it has no challengers.
I could see a future where BTC trades sideways for 8-12 yrs remaining 5-6 figures, then 12-16 yrs out a god candle to multiple 7 figures.
Live in 5 mins
I'm seeing crypto folk falling into the trough of dispair after an abysmal bull market with mainly losers and BTC outperforming their "beta".
Let me tell you a story that tells you why you got screwed. It starts with the end of FTX.
When the bankruptcy folk came in to liquidate FTX assets their mandate was to sell everything. This included vast quantities of locked SOL.
They inadvertently invented something new, selling an asset that was locked up on-chain through the magic of a legal sale agreement (pay me now, I deliver later).
The deal got passed around the ecosystem, fund managers bought up the locked SOL at more than 60% discount to compensate for being locked up and exposed to the token price.
Many hedge funds bought the deal. They knew they could hedge the token price on futures markets by shorting SOL pocketing 70-80% yield at near zero risk (staking + basis yield + token discount).
They liked it and asked where can we get more of this?
Herein lies your PROBLEM as a crypto investor in 2023-2025.
Every crypto project has backers (and a foundation) who has great wads locked tokens that have been sold to hedge funds and dumped on you immediately through futures markets.
All your alpha went to market neutral hedge funds pocketing risk free yield.
THAT IS WHY CRYPTO IN 2023-2025 UNDER PERFORMED
You got dumped on prematurely.
On the bright side many of these projects, even though they have "locked up tokens ready to dump" on paper, in reality they have been sold already, so they will logically perform without the expected sell pressure in the next bull market given they have effectively been sold.
Not that I recommend buying crypto, you need to be an insider to get an edge, it works like a casino, the house will take your money. The house in 2023-2025 were the people who understood this trade. Just buy BTC and get on with your life.
We'll do a free market briefing tomorrow.
Wednesday 5pm ET.
Fundamentals continue their local strength which opens the door to mid-80s, which is the cost basis of short term holders.
Futures markets have been powering this move, these are shorter term buyers. This type of liquidity has draw backs, including whipsaw price movements to hunt liquidations.
Beware this will be a bull trap, the bottom structure has not formed yet.
From the liquidity picture I'm looking at we are around 1/3 of the way through the bear market.
Despite a local rejection of mid-70s, investor flows have been in consistent recovery since mid-Feb. Meanwhile expected volatility (VIX) on equities is hinting for a switch to "risk on" in coming weeks.
BTC sold off WAY TOO FAST in this early bear market and current conditions are setting up to test mid-80s which is the cost basis of short term investors.
This is NOT me saying the bottom is in. BTC is solidly in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long range liquidity. Typically, after fast downward flushes like we have had BTC likes to go sideways and mount a rally where resistance is tested.
Bull trap forming.
This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.
This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. I've never seen BTC rally when both sources of liquidity are bearish.
If I was to make an educated guess, I'd say Q4 would be good timing for the end of the bearish trend and Q1 or Q2 2027 for bullish momentum to return,.
~45k would be a typical bear market bottom.
BTC has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market 2009-2026. If global macro breaks down, then 30k is the fall back level of support, 16k as the final line to maintain BTC's bull trend.
I gave a data supported warning of a high risk zone of a BTC cycle top to our subscribers back in November and even an early warning mid 2025.
Some say my bearishness came late, thats because you missed our live briefings. The next one is free to all.
I have BAD NEWS for the perma bulls.
BTC is still strengthening its bear trend.
Volatility is a key metric used by quants to detect trends.
BTC entered its bear market when vol spiked upwards quickly. Vol then continues to climb, meaning the bear trend is strengthening. Then vol finds a peak in the mid to late phase bear market... that's when the bear trend starts to weaken.
We usually see a second or third smaller peak at the macro bottom, these peaks reflect capitulation.
PSA to @bitcoinvector and Bitcoin Vector Lite (Substack) subscribers, please check your inboxes, we'll be live in 3hrs to cover the markets from BTC to Global Macro with @Negentropic_ and @HenrikZeberg
I think the entities buying gold (sovereigns, particularly China) have a very long time horizon and it's the right move for a 5-15 year forward facing "end of the long term debt cycle" scenario.
Meanwhile it's really hard to convince sovereigns and fiduciary institutions to buy a nascent asset like BTC with 17 years of history (which is less than a retail home mortgage). Then think about their perspective on quantum uncertainty over the next 5-15 years.
IMO fixing BTC's quantum issue is the single most important thing for BTC development and it's urgent due to the current scale of buyers.
I think the excuse of "it's 20 years away" does not cut it. The investors looking to allocate think in exactly these time horizons. So time to get our ducks in a row.
Where the world is heading into, the world needs BTC for what it was designed for, Gold becomes the fallback that's in a state of readiness (for 6000 years) and they are buying.
But to the question at hand on the shorter term, I'm on the side of a large global macro bear market coming, so yeah, maybe we get a sharp pull back in Gold due to a flight to safety before the safehaven trade resumes. (See the last one: 2008-2012)
My hope is BTC's quantum issue resolves quickly to play a part in the macro geopolitics of our time. It was built for this.
Once a blocks reach 95% fill rate, fees go exponential (2017 real world congestion data), there’s no problems with security budget. I thought bigger segwit blocks were a mistake for this reason. In any regards, BTC will certainly add quantum resistant signatures which are significantly bigger and will produce the congestion that is needed.
I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026.
This is a data informed opinion which I hold lightly.
Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to express itself in price, arguably this is taking place now (only held back by very short term overbuying on technical oscillators).
Also promising is that paper based liquidity (futures markets) is coming back in after dying for months, just like it did mid 2021 which lead to a second top in the last cycle.
So 98-100k needs contesting. Then if we get past that it’s a wait and see how ATH resistance fairs.
But I remain bearish 2026 because in the broader picture liquidity flows have been waning relative to price momentum since Jan 2025. We are in the hot zone right now for the final stages when momentum has insufficient supporting liquidity.
What would change my mind would be a massive influx of spot (I.e. longer term) liquidity in coming months to break the waning down trend.
Worth keeping in mind a confirmed a bear market is not yet in place, which would be seen as increasingly negative flows out of BTC (a laggy indicator to a cycle top).
Japanese will have more incentive to buy BTC.
Classifying as a financial product means the tax rate on BTC gains (or trading) goes to 20% instead of being the marginal income tax rate (43-55% if you earn >57k USD per year.
Metaplanet will lose its tax arbitrage advantage over self custody BTC.
Around 110 cryptos are also included, staking gains are taxed at the marginal rate.
