Notes
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
AUTOS:
🔸 GM & Ford drop as Trump imposes 25% import tax on foreign cars (effective April 3); European & Asian automakers also down.
🔸 S&P Changes: Cava ( $CAVA) replaces Altair ( $ALTR) in S&P MidCap 400 (March 31) after Siemens acquires Altair.
🔸 Crypto: GameStop ( $GME) plans $1.3B convertible notes offering to buy Bitcoin.
EARNINGS:
🔸 MillerKnoll ( $MLKN): Q3 EPS $0.44 in line, revenue $876.2M (miss); Q4 guide below estimates.
🔸 Nio ( $NIO): Raises $450M via share placement for EV development.
🔸 Petco ( $WOOF): Q4 EBITDA beats, but weak Q1 & FY guidance.
🔸 Steelcase ( $SCS): Q4 EPS beats; Q1 revenue & EPS guidance above estimates.
INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS:
🔸 Chemours ( $CC) upgraded at Mizuho;
🔸 Liberty Energy ( $LBRT) upgraded at Morgan Stanley.
🔸 HB Fuller ( $FUL) beats Q1 EPS, guides FY revenue lower.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Jefferies ( $JEF) Q4 EPS misses; cites challenging capital markets.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Medicaid overpaid insurers ( $CI, $HUM, $UNH, $ELV), per WSJ.
🔸 Nkarta ( $NKTX): Q4 EPS beats, cash runway to 2029.
🔸 Soleno ( $SLNO): FDA approves Vykat XR for genetic disorder.
🔸 Zentalis ( $ZNTL): Files mixed shelf offering up to $250M.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $AMD downgraded at Jefferies (AI concerns, competition).
🔸 S&P Changes: Angi ( $ANGI) replaces ODP in SmallCap 600.
🔸 3D Systems ( $DDD): Q4 EPS misses, weak FY guidance.
🔸 Concentrix ( $CNXC): Q1 EPS & revenue beat, reiterates FY outlook.
🔸 OpenAI nears $40B funding at $300B valuation (Bloomberg).
🔸 Verint ( $VRNT): Q4 EPS & revenue miss, weak FY guidance.
MORNING BID
🔸 $ACMR: Raises 2024 revenue forecast to $755M-$770M from $725M-$745M; sees 2025 at $850M-$950M vs. consensus $902.95M.
🔸 $APLD: Shares up 30% after Macquarie's $5B investment for 15% stake in AI data centers.
🔸 $AVGO: Secures $7.5B five-year credit facility.
🔸 $IAC: To spin off $ANGI stake to shareholders; Joey Levin steps down as CEO.
🔸 $TTAN: Q3 revenue $199.3M; Q4 expected at $199M-$201M vs. consensus $193.58M; FY25 revenue projected at $761.6M-$763.6M vs. consensus $755.37M.
🔸 $DHR: Q4 revenue expected to rise by low single digits year-over-year.
🔸 $INGN: Q4 revenue forecast at $79.0M-$80.0M, above $73.9M estimate; FY24 revenue guidance raised to $334.5M-$335.5M from $329M-$331M, vs. $329.62M consensus.
🔸 $KIDS: Q4 revenue at $52.7M vs. $50.73M estimate; FY25 revenue guidance $235-242M vs. $239.95M estimate, adjusted EBITDA $15-17M vs. $20.14M forecast.
🔸 $RGNX: Stock up after deal with Nippon Shinyaku for gene therapies; $110M upfront and potential $700M in milestones.
🔸 $TDOC: New partnership with $AMZN to broaden access to chronic care programs.
🔸 $RILY: Shares rise after Q2 2024 report showing a $14.35 per share net loss, delayed due to Franchise Group issues; expects normal filing schedule in 2025.
🔸 $AB: AUM fell to $792B in December 2024 from $813B, a 2.6% drop due to market and outflow issues.
🔸 $IVZ: AUM dropped to $1,846B, down 0.6% with $12.6B in net long-term inflows but $42B reduction from market returns.
🔸 $VRTS: Total client assets at $177.3B in December 2024, down due to outflows and market performance.
🔸 $URI: Acquiring $HEES for $92/share, valuing the deal at $4.8B including debt.
Insurance Industry: LA wildfires might cost insurers over $30B, with significant damage from Palisades and Eaton fires.
🔸 $AVAV: Secures $55.3M order for Switchblade Systems under U.S. Army's LUS program.
🔸 $CE: Upgraded to Buy from Underperform by Bank of America on valuation.
🔸 $FANG: Q4 unhedged prices at $69.48/bbl oil, $0.48/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs; hedged prices at $68.72/bbl oil, $0.82/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs.
🔸 $WAB: Agrees to purchase Evident's inspection tech division for $1.78B.
🔸 $KBH: Q4 EPS $2.52 vs. $2.45 est., revenue $1.999B vs. $2.008B est.; FY25 housing revenue guidance $7.00-7.50B, avg selling price $488-498K.
🔸 $NOMD: 2025 organic revenue growth expected at 1%-3%; confident in meeting 2024 guidance.
🔸 $SIG: Q4 adj. operating income forecast at $337M-$347M, below previous $397M-$427M; sales expected at $2.32B-$2.34B, under prior $2.38B-$2.46B.
🔸 $ADM: Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Bank America.
🔸 $LVS: Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley.
#Downgrades - Dec 18, 2024
• $AM: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $16
• $ANGI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight
• $AXTA: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $41 (from $45)
• $AXTA: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $41 (from $45)
• $EA: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $167
• $EMN: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $104 (from $118)
• $EMN: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $104 (from $118)
• $EPD: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $35
• $FLNC: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $20 (from $24)
• $FLR: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $58 (from $54)
• $GETY: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral
• $HAL: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $33 (from $43)
• $MTCH: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $33 (from $40)
• $MYPS: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral
• $OII: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $26 (from $22)
• $OKE: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $107
• $PAA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $20
• $PAGP: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $20
• $PBA: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight
• $PTVE: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $18 (from $15)
• $RIVN: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $16 (from $18)
• $RNR: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $282 (from $304)
• $SBAC: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $230 (from $260)
• $VAL: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $49 (from $59)
#Downgrades - Nov 13, 2024
• $AE: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $38 (from $45)
• $ANGI: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2.50 (from $3.25)
• $ANGI: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $3.25)
• $ARCH: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $165 (from $155)
• $BCAB: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CAT: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $365 (from $321)
• $CCLD: Roth/MKM Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $3.50 (from $5)
• $COTY: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8.50 (from $11)
• $CPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $121 (from $120)
• $DOCS: Canaccord Genuity Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $60 (from $40)
• $ESAB: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $122 (from $102)
• $ETN: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $389 (from $333)
• $IP: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $48.20
• $ITW: Evercore ISI Downgrades to Underperform from In Line - PT $255 (from $246)
• $MASS: Leerink Partners Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4
• $PGNY: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $19 (from $26)
• $RAPT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2 (from $7)
• $SBUX: Redburn-Atlantic Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $77 (from $84)
• $SHOP: ATB Capital Markets Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform
• $SOUN: Ladenburg Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $7
• $SPOT: Phillip Securities Downgrades to Accumulate from Buy - PT $485 (from $420)
• $SVRA: Evercore ISI Downgrades to In Line from Outperform - PT $5 (from $7)
• $SYRS: Brookline Capital Markets Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $SYRS: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades at Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $6)
• $SYRS: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $SYRS: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $TNK: BofA Securities Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $46 (from $51)
• $WMS: Stephens Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $135