Notes
MORNING BID
🔸 $CWAN acquires $ENFN for $11.25/share, totaling $1.5B, including $30M to end Enfusion's tax agreement.
🔸 $NVDA and $AMD drop due to new U.S. AI chip export controls, effective in 120 days.
🔸 $UNH, $CI, $CVS, $HUM up after U.S. proposes 2.2% increase in 2026 Medicare Advantage payments.
🔸 $SAGE confirms $BIIB $7.22/share acquisition proposal.
🔸 $EXAS reports Q4 revenue $713M, FY24 $2.76B; plans three new cancer tests in 2025.
🔸 $HOLX Q1 revenue $1.022B, slightly below expectations due to currency impact.
🔸 $JNJ to buy $ITCI for $132/share, valuing deal at $14.6B.
🔸 $NTRA Q4 revenue $472M, FY24 guidance $1.7B.
🔸 $RXST FY25 revenue guidance $185M-$197M, gross margin 71%-73%.
🔸 $BEN AUM dropped to $1.58T in Dec '24 from $1.65T in Nov '24 due to market downturn and $18.9B net outflows.
🔸 $LZ upgraded by JPMorgan to Overweight from Underweight, price target raised to $9 from $8.
🔸 $CLMT secured a $1.44B DOE loan to expand its Montana Renewables facility.
🔸 Biden admin delayed Nippon Steel's (NPSCY) $14.9B bid for $X to June, after blocking it on Jan. 3 for national security.
🔸 $ASO highlighted by Barron's for recovery potential in 2025 despite recent sales dips.
🔸 $BNED files for a $100M mixed shelf offering.
🔸 BMW saw sales decline due to China demand drop and recalls.
🔸 $BOOT Q3 EPS $2.43 vs. $2.05 est., revenue $608.2M vs. $593.45M, with 8.6% same-store sales growth.
🔸 $HSY CEO Michele Buck to retire by June 30, 2026.
🔸 $KSS to close San Bernardino EFC and 27 stores by April 2025, incurring $60M-$80M in charges.
🔸 $LULU ups Q4 EPS to $5.81-$5.85, revenue to $3.56B-$3.58B, with gross margin up 30 bps.
🔸 $JWN reports 4.9% net sales, 5.8% comp sales growth for holiday, expects 2.5%-3.5% comp sales growth for FY24.
Stock Gainers Brief:
• $CVS: +3%; added four new board members, including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital, expanding to 16 members; upgraded by Wells Fargo.
• $FOUR: +4%; to join S&P MidCap 400 in place of RCM on November 20.
• $HOOD: +6%; upgraded to Buy by Needham due to expected benefits from Trump's policy changes at SEC.
• $LBRT: +2%; stock up with Chris Wright, a fracking advocate, nominated for Energy Secretary.
• $MBI: +10%; upgraded to Outperform by KBW with a new $9 target after favorable legal and earnings news.
• $SMCI: +9%; plans to meet Nasdaq compliance requirements for continued listing.
• $TSLA: +8%; due to Trump team's interest in autonomous vehicle regulations.
• $WOLF: +5%; CEO Gregg Lowe ousted, Thomas Werner steps in as Executive Chairman during CEO search.
Stock Laggards Brief:
• $BIIB: -1%; downgraded to Hold by Needham, with no expected upside in the next year.
• $CMAX: -55%; filed for bankruptcy with $693M in debt, $390M in assets.
• $LLY: -4%; continues to decline with other obesity/healthcare stocks.
• $MARA: -6%; issuing $700M in convertible notes.
• $NGNE: -35%; halted development of high-dose gene therapy due to serious side effect.
• $PLTR: -9%; despite being a top S&P performer YTD, sees significant drop.
• $UBER & $LYFT: -6%; both affected by news of potential regulations for autonomous vehicles.
#Downgrades - Nov 18, 2024
• $ANTX: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $BIIB: Needham Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $CAR: Northcoast Research Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CR: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $176
• $CRL: CLSA Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $164
• $CW: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $370
• $EOG: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $149 (from $147)
• $ESAB: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $130
• $EYEN: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2
• $EYEN: Ladenburg Thalmann Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $FBK: Hovde Group Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $60
• $FTV: Argus Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $IR: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $107
• $LBTYA: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $13 (from $23)
• $MATX: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $NBHC: Hovde Group Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $55
• $PH: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $691
• $PNFP: Hovde Group Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $135
• $PNW: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $91 (from $93)
• $RDFN: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $6.50 (from $6)
• $SPRO: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy
MORNING RECAP
• $TSLA +8% pre-market on report of Trump's team prioritizing self-driving vehicle regulations.
• $BG approved $500M more for stock buybacks.
• $F faces recall investigation for 112,567 vehicles due to seat belt issues.
• $GIS prepares for mixed securities offering.
• $SAVE files for bankruptcy due to financial losses.
• $LBRT shares up as Chris Wright, its CEO and fracking advocate, is named Energy Secretary by Trump.
• Trump's efficiency drive to slash federal contractor rates, led by Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk.
• Oil prices decline due to ample global supply and weak demand outlook from China.
• Manulife's CEO Roy Gori to retire in May 2025.
• $MARA plans to offer $700M in convertible notes.
• $HOODupgraded to Buy by Needham, target $40.
• Shift4 Payments to join S&P MidCap 400, replacing RCM, effective Nov 20. R1 RCM acquisition by TowerBrook and CD&R set for Nov 19.
• $BIIB downgraded to Hold by Needham with no expected upside in the next year.
• $CVS upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo, target price now $66.
• $CVS to add four new board members including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital.
• $NVDA faces overheating issues with its Blackwell GPUs in server setups.
• $ALAB gets Buy rating from Citigroup with $120 target.
• $MPWR upgraded to Buy after stock drop.
• $SMCI aims to submit Nasdaq compliance plan.
• $WBD settles NBA lawsuit, extends partnership for 10+ years.
$BIIB F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Sees ADJ EPS $16.10 to $16.60, saw $15.75 to $16.25
RESULTS: Q3
🔸 ADJ EPS $4.08 vs. $4.36 y/y
🔸 Revenue $2.47B, -2.5% y/y, EST $2.43B
🔸 Multiple sclerosis revenue $1.05B, EST $1.06B
🔸 Total Fumarate rev. $390.9M, -3.5% y/y, EST $348.2M
🔸 Tecfidera revenue $232.8M, -2.8% y/y, EST $229.5M
🔸 Vumerity rev. $158.1M, -4.5% y/y, EST $169.9M
🔸 Total Interferon rev. $237.5M, EST $245.5M
🔸 Avonex revenue $176.2M, -17% y/y, EST $178.4M
🔸 Plegridy revenue $61.3M, EST $62.9M
🔸 Tysabri revenue $406.1M, -11% y/y, EST $409.6M
🔸 Fampyra rev. $19.4M, -3% y/y, EST $19.8M
🔸 Spinraza revenue $381.4M, -15% y/y, EST $435.4M
🔸 Benepali rev. $118.1M, +4.7% y/y, EST $112.5M
🔸 Imraldi rev. $54.1M, -0.6% y/y, EST $53.9M
🔸 Flixabi Rev. $16.2M, -20% y/y, EST $16.2M
🔸 Byooviz revenue $8M, +16% y/y, EST $14.2M,
🔸 ADJ net income $595.7M, -6.3% y/y