Notes
Analyst Price Target Updates:
🔻 Cuts:
🔸 $ACVA: Jefferies $25 ($27), Needham $25 ($28)
🔸 $ALB: Piper Sandler $85 ($90)
🔸 $AMGN: Bernstein $350 ($380)
🔸 $CE: Jefferies $55 ($70), JPM $54 ($92), RBC $56 ($84), Downgraded to Sector Perform
🔸 $ETSY: BTIG $60 ($65), Canaccord $76 ($105), Guggenheim $70 ($80)
🔸 $EXAS: Jefferies $80 ($85), Leerink $85 ($95)
🔸 $WST: Jefferies $240 ($393)
🔸 $WING: Benchmark $325, Bernstein $330 ($380), Jefferies $270 ($280), TD Cowen $305 ($365)
🔸 $ZTS: Jefferies $190 ($200)
🔺 Raises:
🔸 $AMPL: Baird $17 ($12), Outperform; Piper Sandler $17 ($15)
🔸 $ADI: JPM $300 ($280), Oppenheimer $270 ($245), Piper Sandler $240 ($220), TD Cowen $280 ($260)
🔸 $AIZ: KBW $230 ($212), Upgraded to Outperform
🔸 $AXSM: H.C. Wainwright $200 ($190)
🔸 $BELFA: Needham $100 ($95)
🔸 $BMRN: Scotiabank $80 ($78)
🔸 $CVNA: D.A. Davidson $260 ($220), Jefferies $265 ($225), Needham $340 ($330), RBC $320 ($280)
🔸 $CRL: JPM $165 ($175)
🔸 $CAKE: Citigroup $67 ($66), Jefferies $63 ($58)
🔸 $CWAN: Piper Sandler $36 ($28), Upgraded to Overweight
🔸 $CVS: Bernstein $71 ($52)
🔸 $DVN: Bernstein $48 ($50), JPM $48 ($45)
🔸 $EQT: JPM $58 ($53)
🔸 $GTLB: Wells Fargo $85 ($80)
🔸 $IFF: Citigroup $99 ($100)
🔸 $KVYO: Barclays $51 ($47), Benchmark $54 ($51), Needham $56 ($46), Piper Sandler $53 ($50)
🔸 $LRCX: Susquehanna $125 ($75), Upgraded to Positive
🔸 $MTDR: JPM $76 ($75)
🔸 $RBA: CIBC $116 ($108)
🔸 $RELY: JPM $30 ($21)
🔸 $ROKU: Jefferies $100 ($55), Upgraded to Hold
🔸 $TOST: JPM $42 ($36), KBW $42 ($40)
🔸 $TNL: Jefferies $70 ($62)
🔸 $VRTX: RBC $408 ($407)
🆕 Coverage Initiations:
🔸 $SEI: Piper Sandler Overweight, PT $37
🔸 $ORA: Jefferies Buy (from Hold), PT $78 ($73)
🚨 MORNING BID 🚨
🔸 Bumble ( $BMBL):
Q4 rev -4.4% YoY to $261.6M (est. $260.5M).
Q1 guide: $242M-$248M (below $256.9M est.), follows weak MTCH outlook.
🔸 Canadian Tire: Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands ( $KTB) for C$1.28B ($901.2M).
🔸 IFF ( $IFF):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.97 (est. $0.81), adj. EBITDA $471M (est. $458M) on $2.8B sales (est. $2.677B).
FY guide: sales $10.6B-$10.9B (est. $11.158B), adj. EBITDA $2.0B-$2.15B (est. $2.213B).
🔸 La-Z-Boy ( $LZB):
Q3 adj. EPS $0.68 (in-line), sales $522M (est. $516.54M).
Q4 guide: sales $545M-$565M (est. $565.47M), adj. op margin 8.5%-9.5%.
🔸 Toll Brothers ( $TOL):
Q1 EPS $1.75 (est. $2.04), revs $1.86B (est. $1.906B).
Q2 guide: deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg. price $940K-$960K. FY deliveries 11,200-11,600, avg. price $945K-$965K.
🔸 TrueCar ( $TRUE):
Q4 loss (-$0.07) vs. est. (-$0.02), revs $46.2M (est. $47.3M).
Expects Q1 rev growth in high single digits, Q1 adj. EBITDA loss ~$5M, but strong Q2-Q4 outlook w/ growing OEM incentives.
🔸 Wolverine ( $WWW):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.42 (in-line), revs $494.7M (est. $485.74M).
Gross margin up on lower costs, inventory down 35.6% YoY to $241M.
🔸 Devon Energy ( $DVN):
Q4 EPS $1.16 (est. $1.00), revs $4.4B (est. $4.25B). Q4 oil production 398K bpd.
FY25 capex $3.8B-$4.0B (50% to Delaware Basin). FY25 prod. 805K-825K boe/d, Q1 oil 380K-386K bpd.
🔸 EQT Corp. ( $EQT):
Q4 EPS $0.69 (est. $0.49), adj. EBITDA $1.41B (est. $1.2B), revs $1.62B (est. $1.77B).
FY25 FCF $2.6B-$3.3B, net debt ~$7B.
🔸 Magnolia Oil & Gas ( $MGY):
Q4 EPS $0.44 (est. $0.45), adj. EBITDA $235.8M (est. $230.1M), revs $326.6M (est. $325.2M).
FY25 capex $460M-$490M, production +5-7%.
🔸 Matador ( $MTDR):
Q4 EPS $1.83 (est. $1.75); raises div. 25% to $1.25 annually.
Record oil production 99.8K bpd (+32% YoY).
FY25 oil prod. 120K-124K boe/d, nat gas 492M-504M cf/d.
🔸 Occidental ( $OXY):
Q4 EPS $0.80 (est. $0.70), revs $6.76B (est. $7.14B).
Hikes div. 9% to $0.24/share. Q1 prod. 1.37M-1.41M boe/d, FY25 1.385M-1.445M boe/d. Focus on debt reduction.
🔸 Shift4 ( $FOUR):
Acquiring Global Blue (GB) for $7.50/share (15% premium, ~$2.5B EV).
Q4 EPS $1.35 (est. $1.14), revs $887M (est. $1.006B).
FY25 adj. EBITDA guide: $830M-$855M (est. $864.2M).
🔸 Compass ( $COMP):
Q4 loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.07), revs $1.38B (est. $1.32B).
Q1 revs $1.35B-$1.475B (est. $1.34B), Q1 adj. EBITDA $11M-$25M.
🔸 CoStar ( $CSGP):
Q4 EPS $0.15 (est. $0.23), revs $709M (est. $703M).
FY rev +11% YoY, Q4 net income +13%, EBITDA +43%.
Approved $500M stock buyback.
🔸 XP Inc. ( $XP):
Q4 EPS $2.23 (est. $2.20), revs $4.49B (est. $4.45B).
Adj. ROAE 23.4%, adj. ROTE 29.2%.
🔸 Halozyme ( $HALO):
Q4 EPS $1.06 (est. $1.16), revs $298M (est. $288.2M).
FY25 revs $1.15B-$1.225B (est. $1.188B), adj. EBITDA $755M-$805M (est. $772.4M), adj. EPS $4.95-$5.35 (est. $4.90).
🔸 Penumbra ( $PEN):
Q4 EPS $0.97 (est. $0.90), revs $315.5M (est. $311.5M).
FY25 revs $1.34B-$1.36B (est. $1.362B), gross margin +100bps, op margin 13%-14%.
🔸 Petco ( $WOOF):
Announced three new execs to drive operational improvements, naming Sabrina Simmons as CFO.
🔸 Supernus ( $SUPN):
Shares drop after SPN-820 Phase 2b trial for treatment-resistant depression failed to meet primary endpoint.
🔸 Celanese ( $CE):
Q4 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.20), revs $2.4B (est. $2.36B).
Q1 EPS guide $0.25-$0.50 (est. $1.65) due to non-recurring costs.
Sees continued demand/pricing weakness in key markets.
🔸 Element Solutions ( $ESI):
Q4 EPS $0.35 (in-line), revs $624.2M (est. $595.8M).
🔸 Flowserve ( $FLS):
Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.77), revs $1.18B (est. $1.21B)
bookings $1.2B, adj. gross margin 32.8%. Guides FY sales +5-7% (est. +8.57%)
EPS $3.10-$3.30 (est. $3.25).
🔸 Sonoco ( $SON):
Q4 EPS $1.00 (est. $1.20), revs $1.36B (est. $1.67B).
FY25 EPS $6.00-$6.20 (est. $6.40), adj. EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B.
🔸 Arista Networks ( $ANET):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.65 (est. $0.57), revs $1.93B (est. $1.904B)
adj. gross margin 64.2%. Guides Q1 revs $1.93B-$1.97B (est. $1.907B)
adj. gross margin ~63%, adj. op margin ~44%.
🔸 Cadence Design Systems ( $CDNS):
Q4 adj. EPS $1.88 (est. $1.82), revs $1.356B (est. $1.35B).
FY25 adj. EPS $6.65-$6.75 (below est. $6.82), revs $5.14B-$5.22B (est. $5.25B)
Q4 op margin 46.0% (vs. 42.9% YoY).
🔸 MicroStrategy ( $MSTR): Offering $2B in convertible bonds due 2030 for general purposes, including Bitcoin acquisition.
🔸 Unisys ( $UIS): Q4 EPS $0.33 (est. $0.30), revs $545.4M (est. $550.93M)
Sees 2025 rev growth 0.5%-2.5%, non-GAAP op margin 6.5%-8.5%.
🔸 NetEase ( $NTES): Fears of unloading all its overseas U.S. game holdings due to rising costs, coinciding with China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 Waystar ( $WAY): Files to sell 18M shares of common stock.
MORNING BID
🔸 $ACMR: Raises 2024 revenue forecast to $755M-$770M from $725M-$745M; sees 2025 at $850M-$950M vs. consensus $902.95M.
🔸 $APLD: Shares up 30% after Macquarie's $5B investment for 15% stake in AI data centers.
🔸 $AVGO: Secures $7.5B five-year credit facility.
🔸 $IAC: To spin off $ANGI stake to shareholders; Joey Levin steps down as CEO.
🔸 $TTAN: Q3 revenue $199.3M; Q4 expected at $199M-$201M vs. consensus $193.58M; FY25 revenue projected at $761.6M-$763.6M vs. consensus $755.37M.
🔸 $DHR: Q4 revenue expected to rise by low single digits year-over-year.
🔸 $INGN: Q4 revenue forecast at $79.0M-$80.0M, above $73.9M estimate; FY24 revenue guidance raised to $334.5M-$335.5M from $329M-$331M, vs. $329.62M consensus.
🔸 $KIDS: Q4 revenue at $52.7M vs. $50.73M estimate; FY25 revenue guidance $235-242M vs. $239.95M estimate, adjusted EBITDA $15-17M vs. $20.14M forecast.
🔸 $RGNX: Stock up after deal with Nippon Shinyaku for gene therapies; $110M upfront and potential $700M in milestones.
🔸 $TDOC: New partnership with $AMZN to broaden access to chronic care programs.
🔸 $RILY: Shares rise after Q2 2024 report showing a $14.35 per share net loss, delayed due to Franchise Group issues; expects normal filing schedule in 2025.
🔸 $AB: AUM fell to $792B in December 2024 from $813B, a 2.6% drop due to market and outflow issues.
🔸 $IVZ: AUM dropped to $1,846B, down 0.6% with $12.6B in net long-term inflows but $42B reduction from market returns.
🔸 $VRTS: Total client assets at $177.3B in December 2024, down due to outflows and market performance.
🔸 $URI: Acquiring $HEES for $92/share, valuing the deal at $4.8B including debt.
Insurance Industry: LA wildfires might cost insurers over $30B, with significant damage from Palisades and Eaton fires.
🔸 $AVAV: Secures $55.3M order for Switchblade Systems under U.S. Army's LUS program.
🔸 $CE: Upgraded to Buy from Underperform by Bank of America on valuation.
🔸 $FANG: Q4 unhedged prices at $69.48/bbl oil, $0.48/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs; hedged prices at $68.72/bbl oil, $0.82/mcf gas, $19.27/bbl NGLs.
🔸 $WAB: Agrees to purchase Evident's inspection tech division for $1.78B.
🔸 $KBH: Q4 EPS $2.52 vs. $2.45 est., revenue $1.999B vs. $2.008B est.; FY25 housing revenue guidance $7.00-7.50B, avg selling price $488-498K.
🔸 $NOMD: 2025 organic revenue growth expected at 1%-3%; confident in meeting 2024 guidance.
🔸 $SIG: Q4 adj. operating income forecast at $337M-$347M, below previous $397M-$427M; sales expected at $2.32B-$2.34B, under prior $2.38B-$2.46B.
🔸 $ADM: Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Bank America.
🔸 $LVS: Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley.
MORNING RECAP
❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition.
❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%.
❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60.
❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain.
❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%.
❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M.
❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues.
❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025.
❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030.
❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M.
❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences.
❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share.
❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows.
❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation.
❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share.
❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient.
❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B.
❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B.
❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M.
❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M.
❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities.
❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns.
❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
#Downgrades - Nov 11, 2024
• $AGL: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
• $ALTM: Scotiabank Downgrades to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform - PT $5.85
• $ARDX: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $5.50
• $ATMU: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $45 (from $42)
• $BLMN: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $CBT: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $105
• $CE: BMO Capital Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $76 (from $138)
• $CE: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $97 (from $161)
• $GCMG: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $15.50
• $IMCR: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $38 (from $72)
• $MRK: Daiwa Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform
• $NOV: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $21)
• $NRDY: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral
• $NVR: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $PRA: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $18
• $RVTY: Nephron Downgrades to Sell from Sell - PT $105
• $SMAR: Guggenheim Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $TDW: Raymond James Downgrades to Outperform from Strong Buy - PT $102 (from $131)
• $TEM: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65 (from $45)
• $VALE: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $11.50 (from $14)
• $WHF: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform - PT $12 (from $14)
• $XERS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $3
#Downgrades - Sep 05, 2024
$AZUL: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2.70 (from $9.90)
$CE: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $150 (from $180)
$DLTR: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $68 (from $130)
$DLTR: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65
$EVTC: Susquehanna Downgrades to Negative from Neutral - PT $28 (from $38)
$INTC: Erste Group Downgrades to Sell from Hold
$KBH: RBC Capital Downgrades to Underperform from Sector Perform - PT $70
$KO: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $72
$NVS: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $121 (from $119)
$PAGS: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $6.50 (from $14)
$STNE: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $7 (from $16.50)
$TRNO: Mizuho Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $62