Notes
Almost 100% in this $CRM flow
All data provided by @unusual_whales
MORNING BID
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA):
• Q4 adj. EPS $0.89 (est. $0.84)
• revs $39.33B (est. $38.05B)
• Data center revs $35.6B (+93%)
• Auto $570M (+103%)
• Gaming $2.5B (-11%)
• Q1 revs $43B ±2% (est. $41.78B).
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Debuted Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip.
🔸 Snowflake ( $SNOW):
• Q4 EPS $0.30 (est. $0.18)
• revs $986.8M (+28%, est. $956.26M)
• Q1 product revs guidance $955M-$960M (est. $962.6M); expanded Microsoft partnership.
🔸 Salesforce ( $CRM)
• Q4 adj. EPS $2.78 (est. $2.61)
• revs $9.99B (missed est. $10.04B)
• Q1 guidance below consensus: EPS $2.53-$2.55, revs $9.71B-$9.76B.
🔸 https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI):
• Q3 EPS -$0.12 (est. -$0.25)
• revs $98.8M (+26%, est. $98.1M)
• Q4 revs guidance $103.6M-$113.6M (est. $108.6M).
🔸 Magnite ( $MGNI)
Q4 adj. EPS $0.34 (est. $0.36)
revs $194M (est. $184.3M)
FY adj. EBITDA guidance mid-teens % (est. +12.8%).
🔸 Nutanix ( $NTNX)
Q2 adj. EPS $0.56 (est. $0.47)
revs $654.7M (est. $641.86M)
Q3 revs guidance $620M-$630M (est. $594.39M).
🔸 eBay ( $EBAY)
Q4 adj. EPS $1.25 (est. $1.20)
revs $2.6B (est. $2.58B)
GMV $19.3B (+4%)
Q1 adj. EPS guidance $1.32-$1.36 (est. $1.33)
revs $2.52B-$2.56B (est. $2.59B)
GMV $18.3B-$18.6B.
🔸 Paramount ( $PARA): Q4 revs $7.98B (est. $8.1B); Paramount+ added 5.6M subs (est. 2.58M).
🔸 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): Q4 EPS $0.45 (est. $0.42), revs $879.8M (est. $869.19M); FY revs guidance $3.515B (est. $3.52B).
🔸 Synopsys ( $SNPS): Q1 EPS $3.03 (est. $2.79), revs $1.46B (est. $1.45B); FY EPS guidance $14.88-$14.96 (est. $14.89).
🔸 TaskUs ( $TASK): Q4 EPS $0.31 (est. $0.34), revs $274.2M (est. $268.8M); FY adj. EBITDA margin ~21%.
🔸 TKO Group ( $TKO): Q4 EPS $0.28 (est. $0.21), revs $642.2M (est. $604M); FY adj. EBITDA $1.35B-$1.39B (FY24: $1.25B).
🔸 Norwegian Cruise Line ( $NCLH): Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.11), revs $2.11B (in line); Q1 Net Yield expected to rise ~0.5% y/y (constant currency).
🔸 Urban Outfitters ( $URBN): Q4 adj. EPS $1.04 (est. $0.94), revs $1.64B (+10%, est. $1.61B); Retail segment sales +6.3%, driven by digital and store growth.
🔸 Agilent ( $A): Q1 adj. EPS $1.31 (est. $1.27), revs $1.68B (est. $1.67B); Q2 guidance below estimates; FY25 revs cut to $6.68B-$6.76B (est. $6.82B).
🔸 CareDx ( $CDNA): Q4 adj. EPS $0.18 (est. $0.15), revs $86.6M (est. $84.56M); FY25 revs guidance $365M-$375M (est. $370.02M); Testing services revs +37% y/y.
🔸 Catalyst Pharma ( $CPRX): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.55), revs $141.8M (+28%, est. $134.2M); FY revs guidance $545M-$565M (est. $558.1M).
🔸 Outset Medical ( $OM): Filed $100M mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Sarepta ( $SRPT): Q4 adj. EPS $1.90 (in line), revs $658.4M (est. $627.58M).
🔸 Teladoc ( $TDOC): Q4 EPS -$0.28 (est. -$0.24), revs $640.49M (est. $639.55M); FY revs and EBITDA guidance below estimates.
🔸 Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM): Q4 EPS $0.01 (est. -$0.23), revs $282.6M (est. $251.98M); FY revs guidance $997M-$1.007B (est. $1.008B).
🔸 Universal Health ( $UHS): Q4 adj. EPS $4.92 (est. $4.18), revs $4.11B (est. $4.01B); FY revs and EBITDA guidance above estimates.
MORNING BID
🔸 $NET: Upgraded to Buy by Citigroup, target price to $145 from $95, expecting 27%-30% annual revenue growth.
🔸 Citigroup: Positive 90-day watchlist for $OKTA, negative for $CRWD.
🔸 $WDC: Q2 revenue expected at $4.30B (below consensus $4.24B, EPS at $1.75-$2.05; CFO Jabre resigning.
🔸 $CRM: Upgraded to Buy from Hold by TD Cowen.
🔸 TikTok: Trump's advisor supports keeping app if deal viable; Schumer urges Biden to extend shutdown deadline by 90 days.
🔸 $OZK: Q4 EPS $1.56 vs. est. $1.44; NII $379-398M; book value up 11.5% to $47.30/share.
🔸 $CFG: Q4 EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.83; revenue $1.99B; NIM 2.87%; provisions $162M.
🔸 $INDB: Q4 adj. EPS $1.21 vs. est. $1.16; NIM 3.33%; Q3 pre-tax profit $62.93M.
🔸 $RC: Announces $150M share buyback.
🔸 $RF: Q4 EPS $0.56 vs. est. $0.55; revenue $1.845B; Q1 NII to decline; NIM 3.55%; provisions $120M.
🔸 $WULF: Files for mixed shelf offering, size undisclosed.
🔸 $TFC: Q4 EPS $0.91 vs. est. $0.88; revenue $5.11B; tangible book value $30.01/share; CET1 ratio 11.5%; provisions $471M; Q1 revenue down 2% Q/Q; FY revenue up 3-3.5%.
🔸 $JBHT: Q4 EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.61; revenue down 5% to $3.15B, due to declines in various segments including Intermodal (down 2%).
🔸 $DD and $AXTA: Upgraded to Outperform by Wolfe Research.
🔸 $OTIS: Authorizes $2B share repurchase program.
🔸 Shield AI: In talks to raise significant funding from $PLTR and $LMT, per The Information.
🔸 $CROX: Downgraded to Hold from Buy by Williams Trading due to weakening trends.
🔸 $RIVN: Finalizes $6.6B loan agreement with U.S. DOE for Georgia manufacturing.
Fisker: U.S. auto safety probe closed on 6,971 Ocean SUVs, no further investigation expected post-bankruptcy.
#Upgrades - Dec 13, 2024
• $CAH: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $127 (from $101)
• $CCS: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $97 (from $110)
• $CIEN: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $95 (from $70)
• $CNC: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $79)
• $CRM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $440
• $GIS: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $78)
• $GLPI: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $54 (from $49)
• $NCLH: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $32 (from $28)
• $PENN: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $27 (from $19)
• $PTCT: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $67
• $PTEN: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $10
• $PYPL: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $107
• $RHI: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $90
• $SGMO: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $7
• $SRE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $98 (from $85)
• $TASK: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $21 (from $18)
• $UPBD: Stephens Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $38
• $UPST: Needham Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $100
• $VAC: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $116 (from $97)
• $VNOM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $62
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
#Upgrades - Oct 02, 2024
$PARR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $30 (from $36)
$CVBF: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $22 (from $20)
$TMP: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $68 (from $59)
$BOH: KBW Upgrades to Market Perform from Underperform - PT $67 (from $60)
$HAFC: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $22 (from $20)
$TOWN: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $40 (from $35)
$RIO: Berenberg Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $79 (from $71)
$MTB: Evercore Upgrades to Outperform from In Line - PT $210 (from $187)
$HD: Gordon Haskett Upgrades to Buy from Accumulate - PT $450
$BAH: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $170 (from $150)
$SAIC: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $170 (from $150)
$FANG: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $210
$RRC: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $34
$DQ: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $29.30
$SPHR: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $60
$ULTA: UBS Upgrades to Buy from - PT $505
$CRM: Northland Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $400
#Upgrades - Sep 24, 2024
$BANC: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $18 (from $14)
$BNTX: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $145 (from $93)
$CMA: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $75 (from $52)
$CNH: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $14
$COLB: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $31 (from $28)
$CRM: Piper Sandler Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $325 (from $268)
$LOW: Oppenheimer Upgrades to Outperform from Perform - PT $305 (from $230)
$PB: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $90 (from $75)
$RF: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $28 (from $23)
$RYAN: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $75 (from $65)
$WMT: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $89 (from $76)
#Downgrades - Sep 11, 2024
$ACET: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$ANIP: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $60 (from $80)
$CRM: Erste Group Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$MS: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $105 (from $113)
$NVS: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $130 (from $135)
$SUPN: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)