Notes
MARKET UPDATES:
CONSUMER:
🔸 $DG upgraded to Overweight (BofA).
🔸 Macau casinos ($WYNN, $LVS, $MLCO, $MGM): Gaming revenue +0.8% YoY.
🔸 $LI: March deliveries 36,674 (+26.5% YoY).
🔸 $NIO: March deliveries 15,039 (+14% MoM).
🔸 $PVH: Q4 EPS $3.27 (beat), revenue -4.8% YoY.
🔸 $TSLA: Denmark sales -65.6% YoY.
🔸 $ULTA: Upgraded to Buy, price target raised to $423.
ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS:
🔸 $AAL, $DAL, $LUV: Downgraded (Jefferies).
🔸 Oil: Brent stabilizes after Trump’s Russia comments.
🔸 $CVX: Sells East Texas gas assets ($1.2B+ value).
🔸 $EE: 7M-share secondary offering priced at $26.50.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 $LPLA: 4.7M-share secondary offering at $320.
🔸 $V: $375M escrow deposit, reducing Class B shares.
🔸 $WRB: Downgraded (BofA).
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 $JNJ: $10B talc settlement rejected by U.S. judge.
🔸 Drugmakers: Lobby Trump to phase in pharma tariffs.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $LYV, $SEAT: Fall after Trump’s executive order on ticket pricing.
🔸 $PRGS: Q1 EPS $1.31 (beat), raises full-year guidance.
🔸 $SPIR: Q4 EPS loss ($2.21), weak Q1 outlook.
Good morning to everyone:
Good night to everyone:
BREAKING: Look at this.
A trader put $1,500,000 on a Delta, $DAL, $53P 03/21/2025 last Thursday.
Delta, $DAL, later cut outlook given economic uncertainty.
What makes this EXTRA unusual is that there was another trade, very similar.
A $1.9 million put debit spread was placed 1 hour before a -10% after-hours drop, and the news of economic cut.
9,000 contracts of 45P 03/14/2025 sold and 10,000 49P 03/14/2025 bought.
The trader made millions.
Someone always knows.




MORNING BID
Baidu ( $BIDU) Q4 Revenue: ¥34.12B (-2% y/y, Est. ¥33.32B) 📉
🔹 Ad revenue down 7% to ¥17.9B, offset by AI Cloud growth (+26% y/y).
Broadcom ( $AVGO) & Intel ( $INTC):
🔹 Broadcom held informal talks on acquiring Intel’s chip-design unit (WSJ).
🔹 No formal offer yet; deal uncertain.
Roku ( $ROKU): Files mixed securities shelf.
Alcohol Industry Struggles:
🔹 Younger consumers opt for moderation/abstinence, hurting alcohol sales.
🔹 Underperforming stocks: TAP, DEO, BF/B, BUD.
🔹 Winners: Nonalcoholic brands like Athletic Brewing & Ritual Zero Proof thrive.
🔹 Anglo American ( $NGLOY): Selling nickel unit to MMG Ltd for up to $500M, refocusing on copper & iron ore.
🔹 Delta ( $DAL): Regional jet flipped on landing in Toronto amid high winds; 18 injured.
🔹 Diamondback ( $FANG): Acquires Double Eagle units for 6.9M shares + $3B cash to expand Midland Basin.
🔹 Entergy ( $ETR): Q4 adj. EPS $0.66 (Est. $0.63); FY25 guidance: $3.75-$3.95 (Est. $3.92).
🔹 H&E ( $HEES): Accepts Herc Rentals' $5.3B bid, rejecting United Rentals' offer (FT).
🔹 Sealed Air ( $SEE): CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach appointed; FY24 outlook reaffirmed.
🔹 Capital One ( $COF): Jan. net charge-offs 6.12% (vs. 5.71% y/y); delinquencies 4.61% (vs. 4.78% y/y).
🔹 Discover ( $DFS): Jan. credit card delinquency 1.80%, charge-off 2.63% (SEC filing).
🔹 JPMorgan ( $JPM): Jan. credit card delinquency 0.88%, charge-off 1.64% (SEC filing).
🔹 Janus Henderson ( $JHG): Expanding into Saudi Arabia to grow Middle East presence (Bloomberg).
🔹 KKR ( $KKR): Buying 5% more of Eni’s (E) Enilive biofuel unit for €587.5M, raising stake to 30%.
🔹 Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ): Faces court decision today on $10B settlement over baby powder litigation; Judge Lopez to decide on Chapter 11 filing.
🔹 Medtronic ( $MDT): Q3 adj. EPS $1.39 (Est. $1.36); Q3 revs +2.5% y/y to $8.29B (Est. $8.33B); maintains full-year guidance.
🔹 Oculis ( $OCS): 5M share secondary priced at $20.00 per share.
$DAL GUIDANCE: Q1
🔸 Sees ADJ EPS $0.70 to $1.00, EST $0.76
F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Sees ADJ EPS above $7.35, EST $7.45
RESULTS: Q4
🔸 ADJ EPS $1.85 vs. $1.28 y/y, EST $1.76
🔸 EPS $1.29 vs. $3.16 y/y
🔸 ADJ revenue $14.44B, +5.7% y/y, EST $14.16B
🔸 Passenger revenue $12.82B, +5.3% y/y, EST $12.62B
🔸 Cargo revenue $249M, +32% y/y, EST $204.3M
🔸 Passenger load factor 84% vs. 84% y/y, EST 84.7%
🔸 Available seat miles 72.04B, +5.2% y/y, EST 71.12B
🔸 Revenue passenger miles 60.39B, +4.7% y/y, EST 60.27B
🔸 ADJ net income $1.20B, +46% y/y, EST $1.15B
🔸 Yield per passenger mile $21.22, +0.5% y/y
MORNING RECAP
• Target Corp. ( $TGT): Shares fell after Q3 results missed expectations; EPS $1.85 vs. $2.30 est., sales up 0.9% to $25.23B missing $25.74B est., and operating margin at 4.6% vs. 5.6% est. FY EPS guidance lowered to $8.30-$8.90 from $9-$9.70.
• Azek Company ( $AZEK): Beat Q4 expectations with EPS at $0.29 vs. $0.27 est., adjusted EBITDA $91.8M vs. $88.1M, and sales at $348.22M. FY25 guidance: revenue $1.51B-$1.54B, adjusted EBITDA $400M-$415M.
• Chewy ( $CHWY): Upgraded to 'Buy' by Bank America with price target raised to $40 from $24.
• Delta Air Lines ( $DAL): Projects mid-single digit revenue growth for 2025, with capacity expansion up to 4%.
• La-Z-Boy ( $LZB): Q2 EPS $0.71 vs. $0.64 est., sales up 1.9% to $521M, Q3 guidance provided, dividend raised to $0.22.
• Uber ( $UBER): Launched Uber XXL for airport travel in 60+ airports and new reservation features with flight tracking.
• AeroVironment ( $AVAV): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies.
• DT Midstream ( $DTM): Acquires three pipelines from Oneok for $1.2B, spanning 1,300 miles across seven Midwest states.
• Dycom ( $DY): Q3 EPS $2.68 vs. $2.26 est., revenue $1.27B vs. $1.22B est.; anticipates mid- to high single-digit revenue growth in Q4.
• Patrick Industries ( $PATK): Announces a 3-for-2 stock split.
• Powell Industries ( $POWL): Q4 revenue up 32.1% to $275.1M, but missed $284.3M est.; EPS $3.77 vs. $3.55 est.; orders up 56% to $267M, backlog steady at $1.3B, expects strong FY25.
• SolarEdge ( $SEDG): Upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Guggenheim, previous $10 price target dropped.
• Forestar Group ( $FOR): Files for potential sale of up to $300M in common stock.
• JPMorgan ( $JPM): Downgraded to Perform from Outperform by Oppenheimer due to valuation.
• Lemonade ( $LMND): Upgraded to equal weight from underweight by Morgan Stanley post-investor day.
• StoneX Group ( $SNEX): Q4 EPS $2.32 vs $2.05 est., net revenue $454.8M vs $462.98M est.
• XP Inc. ( $XP): Launches a buyback program up to R$1.0B; Q3 EPS as expected at 2.18, revenue slightly below at 4.319B; active clients increased to 4.7M.
• Concentra Group Holdings Inc. ( $CON) will replace Myers Industries Inc. (MYE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 on November 27, following a distribution by Select Medical Holdings Corp. (SEM).
• Pfizer ( $PFE) appointed Chris Boshoff as its R&D chief starting January 1. It also received EC approval for Hympavzi for hemophilia treatment.
• Sangamo Therapeutics ( $SGMO) received FDA clearance for ST-503 human trials, with enrollment planned for mid-2025.
• Varex Imaging ( $VREX) reported Q4 EPS at $0.19, beating the $0.09 estimate, but revenue dropped 10% to $205.7M. Forecasts Q1 revenue between $195M-$215M.
• Viking Therapeutics ( $VKTX) shared positive mid-stage trial results for VK2809, showing significant improvement in liver fibrosis over placebo.
• Comcast Corp. ( $CMCSA) is set to spin off cable channels like MSNBC, CNBC, and USA to reduce exposure to declining viewership and ad revenue, keeping NBC and Peacock, per WSJ.
• Dolby Labs ( $DLB) Q4 EPS $0.81 vs. $0.70 est., revenue slightly below at $305M. Forecasts Q1 revenue $330-360M and FY revenue $1.33-1.39B.
• Flex Ltd ( $FLEX) will replace Azenta Inc. ( $AZTA) in S&P MidCap 400, with Azenta moving to S&P SmallCap 600, effective November 25.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q4 EPS $1.65 vs. $1.57 est., revenue at $1.287B. Q1 guidance: revenue $1.265-1.285B, EPS $1.65-1.71.
• https://t.co/jK5z8CZLV2 ( $WIX) Q3 EPS $1.62 vs. $1.51 est., revenue $444.67M vs. $457.9M est. Increases FY24 revenue and bookings forecasts.
• ZoomInfo Technologies ( $ZI) Chairman Schuck purchased 492,500 shares at $10.25 each on November 15, transaction worth $5,049,750.
$DAL GUIDANCE: Q4
🔸 Sees ADJ EPS $1.60 to $1.85, EST $1.78
RESULTS: Q3
🔸ADJ EPS $1.50 vs. $2.03 y/y, EST $1.52
🔸EPS $1.97 vs. $1.72 y/y
🔸ADJ revenue $14.59B, EST $14.65B
🔸Passenger revenue $13.11B vs. $13.12B y/y, EST $13.17B
🔸Cargo revenue $196M, +27% y/y, EST $177.6M
🔸Passenger load factor 87% vs. 88% y/y, EST 87.2%
🔸Available seat miles 76.16B, +4% y/y, EST 76.30B
🔸Revenue passenger miles 66.31B, +3.5% y/y, EST 66.53B
🔸ADJ net income $971M, -26% y/y, EST $980.8M
🔸Yield per passenger mile $19.77, -3.4% y/y