Notes
Wells Fargo's Q2 2025 Tactical Ideas list includes 10 stocks with key catalysts.
Overweight: $CHKP, $COF, $CPRI, $DLTR, $KKR, $LLY, $PTCT, $ROKU, $RYTM.
Underweight: $TSLA, citing weak auto fundamentals and overvaluation vs. the Magnificent 7. Notes Cybercab launch in June as unlikely due to limited testing.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 GameStop ( $GME): Q4 EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.08; sales $1.28B (miss); adding Bitcoin to treasury.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA): Hosting launch event in Saudi Arabia on April 10.
🔸 Advance Auto Parts ( $AAP): Finished store closures; plans 30 new US stores in 2025, 100+ by 2027.
🔸 https://t.co/mNJtOGZiLg ( $PRTS): Q4 loss -$0.71 vs -$0.15 y/y; sales -15% to $133.5M; no 2025 guidance, exploring strategic options.
🔸 Dollar Tree ( $DLTR): Selling Family Dollar for $1.007B; Q4 adj. EPS $2.11 (miss), sales -42% to $4.99B; guides Q1 sales $4.5–$4.6B.
ENERGY/INDUSTRIALS/MATERIALS:
🔸 Compass Minerals ( $CMP): Cutting 10% of workforce, ending fire retardant biz; expects $11M–$13M cost savings.
🔸 Glencore (GLNCY): Declared force majeure on Chilean copper shipments.
🔸 JinkoSolar ( $JKS): Q4 loss -$0.32; sales -3.9% to $2.83B; Q1 module shipments guided at 16–18 GW.
🔸 Phillips 66 ( $PSX): Adding two board directors amid proxy fight with Elliott.
🔸 Range Resources ( $RRC): Upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
🔸 Westlake Chemical ( $WLK): Downgraded to Neutral at Piper; target cut to $120.
🔸 Worthington ( $WOR): Q3 EPS $0.79 (beat); revs -4% to $304.5M; EBITDA up 10%.
🔸 US copper import tariffs may come in weeks (Bloomberg).
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Invesco Mortgage ( $IVR): Cuts dividend to $0.34 from $0.40.
🔸 PaySign ( $PAYS): Q4 EPS $0.02; guides FY revenue $68.5M–$70M.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Corvus Pharma ( $CRVS): Q4 loss -$0.18; cash runway into Q1 2026.
🔸 Guardant Health ( $GH): VA now covers Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening.
🔸 Verastem ( $VSTM): Will present data at AACR 2025 in Chicago.
TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM:
🔸 Apple ( $AAPL): iPhone 16 available in Indonesia April 11.
🔸 GCT Semiconductor ( $GCTS): Q4 net loss $5M on $1.8M sales.
🔸 Qualcomm ( $QCOM): Filed antitrust complaints against Arm in US, EU, Korea.
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
$DLTR RESULTS: Q3
• ADJ EPS $1.12 vs. $0.97 y/y, EST $1.08
• EPS $1.08 vs. $0.97 y/y, EST $1.08
• Enterprise comparable sales +1.8% vs. +3.9% y/y, EST +1.34%
• Family Dollar comparable sales +1.9% vs. +2% y/y, EST +0.98%
• Dollar Tree Segment comparable sales +1.8% vs. +5.4% y/y, EST +1.66%
• Net sales $7.56B, +3.5% y/y, EST $7.47B
• Dollar Tree net sales $4.34B, +8.3% y/y, EST $4.27B
• Family Dollar net sales $3.22B, -2.5% y/y, EST $3.2B
• Gross profit margin 30.9% vs. 29.7% y/y, EST 30.6%
• Dollar Tree gross margin 35.4% vs. 34.8% y/y, EST 35%
• Total location count 16,590, -0.2% y/y, EST 16,534
• Dollar Tree Locations 8,868, +7.2% y/y, EST 8,482
• Family Dollar locations 7,722, -7.5% y/y, EST 8,001
• Dollar Tree forecasts Q4 adj EPS $2.10 to $2.30, est. $2.26
• Dollar Tree forecasts Q4 net sales $8.1B to $8.3B, est. $8.29B
#Downgrades - Sep 05, 2024
$AZUL: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2.70 (from $9.90)
$CE: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $150 (from $180)
$DLTR: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $68 (from $130)
$DLTR: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65
$EVTC: Susquehanna Downgrades to Negative from Neutral - PT $28 (from $38)
$INTC: Erste Group Downgrades to Sell from Hold
$KBH: RBC Capital Downgrades to Underperform from Sector Perform - PT $70
$KO: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $72
$NVS: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $121 (from $119)
$PAGS: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $6.50 (from $14)
$STNE: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $7 (from $16.50)
$TRNO: Mizuho Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $62