Notes

Wells Fargo's Q2 2025 Tactical Ideas list includes 10 stocks with key catalysts. Overweight: $CHKP, $COF, $CPRI, $DLTR, $KKR, $LLY, $PTCT, $ROKU, $RYTM. Underweight: $TSLA, citing weak auto fundamentals and overvaluation vs. the Magnificent 7. Notes Cybercab launch in June as unlikely due to limited testing.
$CHKP $COF $CPRI $DLTR $KKR $LLY $PTCT $ROKU $RYTM $TSLA
-16.31%
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY: CONSUMER: 🔸 GameStop ( $GME): Q4 EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.08; sales $1.28B (miss); adding Bitcoin to treasury. 🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA): Hosting launch event in Saudi Arabia on April 10. 🔸 Advance Auto Parts ( $AAP): Finished store closures; plans 30 new US stores in 2025, 100+ by 2027. 🔸 https://t.co/mNJtOGZiLg ( $PRTS): Q4 loss -$0.71 vs -$0.15 y/y; sales -15% to $133.5M; no 2025 guidance, exploring strategic options. 🔸 Dollar Tree ( $DLTR): Selling Family Dollar for $1.007B; Q4 adj. EPS $2.11 (miss), sales -42% to $4.99B; guides Q1 sales $4.5–$4.6B. ENERGY/INDUSTRIALS/MATERIALS: 🔸 Compass Minerals ( $CMP): Cutting 10% of workforce, ending fire retardant biz; expects $11M–$13M cost savings. 🔸 Glencore (GLNCY): Declared force majeure on Chilean copper shipments. 🔸 JinkoSolar ( $JKS): Q4 loss -$0.32; sales -3.9% to $2.83B; Q1 module shipments guided at 16–18 GW. 🔸 Phillips 66 ( $PSX): Adding two board directors amid proxy fight with Elliott. 🔸 Range Resources ( $RRC): Upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. 🔸 Westlake Chemical ( $WLK): Downgraded to Neutral at Piper; target cut to $120. 🔸 Worthington ( $WOR): Q3 EPS $0.79 (beat); revs -4% to $304.5M; EBITDA up 10%. 🔸 US copper import tariffs may come in weeks (Bloomberg). FINANCIALS: 🔸 Invesco Mortgage ( $IVR): Cuts dividend to $0.34 from $0.40. 🔸 PaySign ( $PAYS): Q4 EPS $0.02; guides FY revenue $68.5M–$70M. HEALTHCARE: 🔸 Corvus Pharma ( $CRVS): Q4 loss -$0.18; cash runway into Q1 2026. 🔸 Guardant Health ( $GH): VA now covers Shield blood test for colorectal cancer screening. 🔸 Verastem ( $VSTM): Will present data at AACR 2025 in Chicago. TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM: 🔸 Apple ( $AAPL): iPhone 16 available in Indonesia April 11. 🔸 GCT Semiconductor ( $GCTS): Q4 net loss $5M on $1.8M sales. 🔸 Qualcomm ( $QCOM): Filed antitrust complaints against Arm in US, EU, Korea.
$GME
-4.88%
$TSLA
-16.31%
$AAP $PRTS $DLTR $CMP $JKS $PSX $RRC $WLK $WOR
+13.29%
$IVR $PAYS $CRVS $GH $VSTM $AAPL $GCTS $QCOM
MORNING RECAP Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04) ╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M) ╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8% ╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B ╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08) ╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M) ╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate) ╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70 ╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5% ╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8% General Motors ( $GM): ╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV: ╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B ╌Reduced value: $2.7B Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04) ╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M) ╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M) ╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M ╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M Volkswagen ( $VWAGY): ╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk. Crescent Energy ( $CRGY): ╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments. Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR): ╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each. Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance: ╌LTL tons/day: -8% ╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8% ╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2% XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics: ╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year. ╌Shipments/day down 4.2%. ╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%. Goldman Sachs ( $GS): ╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share. Iris Energy ( $IREN): ╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030. Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF): ╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase. ╌Increases dividend to $0.50. Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4: ╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65) ╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B) ╌Dividend raised by 4.2%. Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO): ╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss. Novavax ( $NVAX): ╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction. Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD): ╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each. Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44) ╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B) ╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B ╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65) ╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11) Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3: ╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M) ╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q ╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70 ╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08)) ╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M) ╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41) ╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B) ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05 ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B) Okta Inc. ( $OKTA): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58) ╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74 ╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B ╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M ╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): ╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
$DLTR $FL $GM
+22.26%
$CURV $VWAGY $CRGY $LUNR $ODFL $XPO $GS $IREN $RJF $RY $LLY $NVO $NVAX $RVMD $CRM $BOX
-14.25%
$BASE
-8.56%
$MRVL $OKTA $PSTG $NXPI $TSM
-8.8%
$DLTR RESULTS: Q3 • ADJ EPS $1.12 vs. $0.97 y/y, EST $1.08 • EPS $1.08 vs. $0.97 y/y, EST $1.08 • Enterprise comparable sales +1.8% vs. +3.9% y/y, EST +1.34% • Family Dollar comparable sales +1.9% vs. +2% y/y, EST +0.98% • Dollar Tree Segment comparable sales +1.8% vs. +5.4% y/y, EST +1.66% • Net sales $7.56B, +3.5% y/y, EST $7.47B • Dollar Tree net sales $4.34B, +8.3% y/y, EST $4.27B • Family Dollar net sales $3.22B, -2.5% y/y, EST $3.2B • Gross profit margin 30.9% vs. 29.7% y/y, EST 30.6% • Dollar Tree gross margin 35.4% vs. 34.8% y/y, EST 35% • Total location count 16,590, -0.2% y/y, EST 16,534 • Dollar Tree Locations 8,868, +7.2% y/y, EST 8,482 • Family Dollar locations 7,722, -7.5% y/y, EST 8,001 • Dollar Tree forecasts Q4 adj EPS $2.10 to $2.30, est. $2.26 • Dollar Tree forecasts Q4 net sales $8.1B to $8.3B, est. $8.29B
$DLTR
#Downgrades - Sep 05, 2024 $AZUL: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $2.70 (from $9.90) $CE: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $150 (from $180) $DLTR: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $68 (from $130) $DLTR: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65 $EVTC: Susquehanna Downgrades to Negative from Neutral - PT $28 (from $38) $INTC: Erste Group Downgrades to Sell from Hold $KBH: RBC Capital Downgrades to Underperform from Sector Perform - PT $70 $KO: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $72 $NVS: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $121 (from $119) $PAGS: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $6.50 (from $14) $STNE: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $7 (from $16.50) $TRNO: Mizuho Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $62
$AZUL $CE $DLTR $EVTC $INTC $KBH $KO $NVS $PAGS $STNE $TRNO
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