Notes
Analyst Price Target Updates:
🔻 Cuts:
🔸 $ACVA: Jefferies $25 ($27), Needham $25 ($28)
🔸 $ALB: Piper Sandler $85 ($90)
🔸 $AMGN: Bernstein $350 ($380)
🔸 $CE: Jefferies $55 ($70), JPM $54 ($92), RBC $56 ($84), Downgraded to Sector Perform
🔸 $ETSY: BTIG $60 ($65), Canaccord $76 ($105), Guggenheim $70 ($80)
🔸 $EXAS: Jefferies $80 ($85), Leerink $85 ($95)
🔸 $WST: Jefferies $240 ($393)
🔸 $WING: Benchmark $325, Bernstein $330 ($380), Jefferies $270 ($280), TD Cowen $305 ($365)
🔸 $ZTS: Jefferies $190 ($200)
🔺 Raises:
🔸 $AMPL: Baird $17 ($12), Outperform; Piper Sandler $17 ($15)
🔸 $ADI: JPM $300 ($280), Oppenheimer $270 ($245), Piper Sandler $240 ($220), TD Cowen $280 ($260)
🔸 $AIZ: KBW $230 ($212), Upgraded to Outperform
🔸 $AXSM: H.C. Wainwright $200 ($190)
🔸 $BELFA: Needham $100 ($95)
🔸 $BMRN: Scotiabank $80 ($78)
🔸 $CVNA: D.A. Davidson $260 ($220), Jefferies $265 ($225), Needham $340 ($330), RBC $320 ($280)
🔸 $CRL: JPM $165 ($175)
🔸 $CAKE: Citigroup $67 ($66), Jefferies $63 ($58)
🔸 $CWAN: Piper Sandler $36 ($28), Upgraded to Overweight
🔸 $CVS: Bernstein $71 ($52)
🔸 $DVN: Bernstein $48 ($50), JPM $48 ($45)
🔸 $EQT: JPM $58 ($53)
🔸 $GTLB: Wells Fargo $85 ($80)
🔸 $IFF: Citigroup $99 ($100)
🔸 $KVYO: Barclays $51 ($47), Benchmark $54 ($51), Needham $56 ($46), Piper Sandler $53 ($50)
🔸 $LRCX: Susquehanna $125 ($75), Upgraded to Positive
🔸 $MTDR: JPM $76 ($75)
🔸 $RBA: CIBC $116 ($108)
🔸 $RELY: JPM $30 ($21)
🔸 $ROKU: Jefferies $100 ($55), Upgraded to Hold
🔸 $TOST: JPM $42 ($36), KBW $42 ($40)
🔸 $TNL: Jefferies $70 ($62)
🔸 $VRTX: RBC $408 ($407)
🆕 Coverage Initiations:
🔸 $SEI: Piper Sandler Overweight, PT $37
🔸 $ORA: Jefferies Buy (from Hold), PT $78 ($73)
🚨 MORNING BID 🚨
🔸 Bumble ( $BMBL):
Q4 rev -4.4% YoY to $261.6M (est. $260.5M).
Q1 guide: $242M-$248M (below $256.9M est.), follows weak MTCH outlook.
🔸 Canadian Tire: Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands ( $KTB) for C$1.28B ($901.2M).
🔸 IFF ( $IFF):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.97 (est. $0.81), adj. EBITDA $471M (est. $458M) on $2.8B sales (est. $2.677B).
FY guide: sales $10.6B-$10.9B (est. $11.158B), adj. EBITDA $2.0B-$2.15B (est. $2.213B).
🔸 La-Z-Boy ( $LZB):
Q3 adj. EPS $0.68 (in-line), sales $522M (est. $516.54M).
Q4 guide: sales $545M-$565M (est. $565.47M), adj. op margin 8.5%-9.5%.
🔸 Toll Brothers ( $TOL):
Q1 EPS $1.75 (est. $2.04), revs $1.86B (est. $1.906B).
Q2 guide: deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg. price $940K-$960K. FY deliveries 11,200-11,600, avg. price $945K-$965K.
🔸 TrueCar ( $TRUE):
Q4 loss (-$0.07) vs. est. (-$0.02), revs $46.2M (est. $47.3M).
Expects Q1 rev growth in high single digits, Q1 adj. EBITDA loss ~$5M, but strong Q2-Q4 outlook w/ growing OEM incentives.
🔸 Wolverine ( $WWW):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.42 (in-line), revs $494.7M (est. $485.74M).
Gross margin up on lower costs, inventory down 35.6% YoY to $241M.
🔸 Devon Energy ( $DVN):
Q4 EPS $1.16 (est. $1.00), revs $4.4B (est. $4.25B). Q4 oil production 398K bpd.
FY25 capex $3.8B-$4.0B (50% to Delaware Basin). FY25 prod. 805K-825K boe/d, Q1 oil 380K-386K bpd.
🔸 EQT Corp. ( $EQT):
Q4 EPS $0.69 (est. $0.49), adj. EBITDA $1.41B (est. $1.2B), revs $1.62B (est. $1.77B).
FY25 FCF $2.6B-$3.3B, net debt ~$7B.
🔸 Magnolia Oil & Gas ( $MGY):
Q4 EPS $0.44 (est. $0.45), adj. EBITDA $235.8M (est. $230.1M), revs $326.6M (est. $325.2M).
FY25 capex $460M-$490M, production +5-7%.
🔸 Matador ( $MTDR):
Q4 EPS $1.83 (est. $1.75); raises div. 25% to $1.25 annually.
Record oil production 99.8K bpd (+32% YoY).
FY25 oil prod. 120K-124K boe/d, nat gas 492M-504M cf/d.
🔸 Occidental ( $OXY):
Q4 EPS $0.80 (est. $0.70), revs $6.76B (est. $7.14B).
Hikes div. 9% to $0.24/share. Q1 prod. 1.37M-1.41M boe/d, FY25 1.385M-1.445M boe/d. Focus on debt reduction.
🔸 Shift4 ( $FOUR):
Acquiring Global Blue (GB) for $7.50/share (15% premium, ~$2.5B EV).
Q4 EPS $1.35 (est. $1.14), revs $887M (est. $1.006B).
FY25 adj. EBITDA guide: $830M-$855M (est. $864.2M).
🔸 Compass ( $COMP):
Q4 loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.07), revs $1.38B (est. $1.32B).
Q1 revs $1.35B-$1.475B (est. $1.34B), Q1 adj. EBITDA $11M-$25M.
🔸 CoStar ( $CSGP):
Q4 EPS $0.15 (est. $0.23), revs $709M (est. $703M).
FY rev +11% YoY, Q4 net income +13%, EBITDA +43%.
Approved $500M stock buyback.
🔸 XP Inc. ( $XP):
Q4 EPS $2.23 (est. $2.20), revs $4.49B (est. $4.45B).
Adj. ROAE 23.4%, adj. ROTE 29.2%.
🔸 Halozyme ( $HALO):
Q4 EPS $1.06 (est. $1.16), revs $298M (est. $288.2M).
FY25 revs $1.15B-$1.225B (est. $1.188B), adj. EBITDA $755M-$805M (est. $772.4M), adj. EPS $4.95-$5.35 (est. $4.90).
🔸 Penumbra ( $PEN):
Q4 EPS $0.97 (est. $0.90), revs $315.5M (est. $311.5M).
FY25 revs $1.34B-$1.36B (est. $1.362B), gross margin +100bps, op margin 13%-14%.
🔸 Petco ( $WOOF):
Announced three new execs to drive operational improvements, naming Sabrina Simmons as CFO.
🔸 Supernus ( $SUPN):
Shares drop after SPN-820 Phase 2b trial for treatment-resistant depression failed to meet primary endpoint.
🔸 Celanese ( $CE):
Q4 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.20), revs $2.4B (est. $2.36B).
Q1 EPS guide $0.25-$0.50 (est. $1.65) due to non-recurring costs.
Sees continued demand/pricing weakness in key markets.
🔸 Element Solutions ( $ESI):
Q4 EPS $0.35 (in-line), revs $624.2M (est. $595.8M).
🔸 Flowserve ( $FLS):
Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.77), revs $1.18B (est. $1.21B)
bookings $1.2B, adj. gross margin 32.8%. Guides FY sales +5-7% (est. +8.57%)
EPS $3.10-$3.30 (est. $3.25).
🔸 Sonoco ( $SON):
Q4 EPS $1.00 (est. $1.20), revs $1.36B (est. $1.67B).
FY25 EPS $6.00-$6.20 (est. $6.40), adj. EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B.
🔸 Arista Networks ( $ANET):
Q4 adj. EPS $0.65 (est. $0.57), revs $1.93B (est. $1.904B)
adj. gross margin 64.2%. Guides Q1 revs $1.93B-$1.97B (est. $1.907B)
adj. gross margin ~63%, adj. op margin ~44%.
🔸 Cadence Design Systems ( $CDNS):
Q4 adj. EPS $1.88 (est. $1.82), revs $1.356B (est. $1.35B).
FY25 adj. EPS $6.65-$6.75 (below est. $6.82), revs $5.14B-$5.22B (est. $5.25B)
Q4 op margin 46.0% (vs. 42.9% YoY).
🔸 MicroStrategy ( $MSTR): Offering $2B in convertible bonds due 2030 for general purposes, including Bitcoin acquisition.
🔸 Unisys ( $UIS): Q4 EPS $0.33 (est. $0.30), revs $545.4M (est. $550.93M)
Sees 2025 rev growth 0.5%-2.5%, non-GAAP op margin 6.5%-8.5%.
🔸 NetEase ( $NTES): Fears of unloading all its overseas U.S. game holdings due to rising costs, coinciding with China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 Waystar ( $WAY): Files to sell 18M shares of common stock.
#Downgrades - Dec 05, 2024
• $ABBV: Daiwa Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $180
• $AEO: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $23 (from $27)
• $ALLY: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $AMAT: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $164 (from $179)
• $CHWY: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $30
• $CNX: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $37 (from $31)
• $DVN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $191
• $F: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Underperform from Peerperform
• $FOUR: Benchmark Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $FWONA: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $GRAB: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.50 (from $4.25)
• $MRVI : Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $4.25 (from $7)
• $NAUT: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $1.75 (from $2.25)
• $NCNO: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $38
• $OTIS: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $94
• $PB: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $PFG: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $80 (from $86)
• $RLMD: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $1 (from $23)
• $ROP: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Overweight - PT $569 (from $625)
• $SBRA: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $20
• $SM: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $16 (from $15)
• $VCYT: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $37 (from $38)