Notes

Analyst Price Target Updates: 🔻 Cuts: 🔸 $ACVA: Jefferies $25 ($27), Needham $25 ($28) 🔸 $ALB: Piper Sandler $85 ($90) 🔸 $AMGN: Bernstein $350 ($380) 🔸 $CE: Jefferies $55 ($70), JPM $54 ($92), RBC $56 ($84), Downgraded to Sector Perform 🔸 $ETSY: BTIG $60 ($65), Canaccord $76 ($105), Guggenheim $70 ($80) 🔸 $EXAS: Jefferies $80 ($85), Leerink $85 ($95) 🔸 $WST: Jefferies $240 ($393) 🔸 $WING: Benchmark $325, Bernstein $330 ($380), Jefferies $270 ($280), TD Cowen $305 ($365) 🔸 $ZTS: Jefferies $190 ($200) 🔺 Raises: 🔸 $AMPL: Baird $17 ($12), Outperform; Piper Sandler $17 ($15) 🔸 $ADI: JPM $300 ($280), Oppenheimer $270 ($245), Piper Sandler $240 ($220), TD Cowen $280 ($260) 🔸 $AIZ: KBW $230 ($212), Upgraded to Outperform 🔸 $AXSM: H.C. Wainwright $200 ($190) 🔸 $BELFA: Needham $100 ($95) 🔸 $BMRN: Scotiabank $80 ($78) 🔸 $CVNA: D.A. Davidson $260 ($220), Jefferies $265 ($225), Needham $340 ($330), RBC $320 ($280) 🔸 $CRL: JPM $165 ($175) 🔸 $CAKE: Citigroup $67 ($66), Jefferies $63 ($58) 🔸 $CWAN: Piper Sandler $36 ($28), Upgraded to Overweight 🔸 $CVS: Bernstein $71 ($52) 🔸 $DVN: Bernstein $48 ($50), JPM $48 ($45) 🔸 $EQT: JPM $58 ($53) 🔸 $GTLB: Wells Fargo $85 ($80) 🔸 $IFF: Citigroup $99 ($100) 🔸 $KVYO: Barclays $51 ($47), Benchmark $54 ($51), Needham $56 ($46), Piper Sandler $53 ($50) 🔸 $LRCX: Susquehanna $125 ($75), Upgraded to Positive 🔸 $MTDR: JPM $76 ($75) 🔸 $RBA: CIBC $116 ($108) 🔸 $RELY: JPM $30 ($21) 🔸 $ROKU: Jefferies $100 ($55), Upgraded to Hold 🔸 $TOST: JPM $42 ($36), KBW $42 ($40) 🔸 $TNL: Jefferies $70 ($62) 🔸 $VRTX: RBC $408 ($407) 🆕 Coverage Initiations: 🔸 $SEI: Piper Sandler Overweight, PT $37 🔸 $ORA: Jefferies Buy (from Hold), PT $78 ($73)
$ACVA $ALB
-3.28%
$AMGN $CE $ETSY $EXAS $WST $WING
-15.37%
$ZTS $AMPL $ADI $AIZ $AXSM $BELFA $BMRN $CVNA $CRL $CAKE
-1.5%
$CWAN $CVS $DVN $EQT $GTLB $IFF $KVYO $LRCX $MTDR $RBA $RELY $ROKU $TOST $TNL $VRTX
-68.05%
$SEI
+0.57%
$ORA
+1.22%
🚨 MORNING BID 🚨 🔸 Bumble ( $BMBL): Q4 rev -4.4% YoY to $261.6M (est. $260.5M). Q1 guide: $242M-$248M (below $256.9M est.), follows weak MTCH outlook. 🔸 Canadian Tire: Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands ( $KTB) for C$1.28B ($901.2M). 🔸 IFF ( $IFF): Q4 adj. EPS $0.97 (est. $0.81), adj. EBITDA $471M (est. $458M) on $2.8B sales (est. $2.677B). FY guide: sales $10.6B-$10.9B (est. $11.158B), adj. EBITDA $2.0B-$2.15B (est. $2.213B). 🔸 La-Z-Boy ( $LZB): Q3 adj. EPS $0.68 (in-line), sales $522M (est. $516.54M). Q4 guide: sales $545M-$565M (est. $565.47M), adj. op margin 8.5%-9.5%. 🔸 Toll Brothers ( $TOL): Q1 EPS $1.75 (est. $2.04), revs $1.86B (est. $1.906B). Q2 guide: deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg. price $940K-$960K. FY deliveries 11,200-11,600, avg. price $945K-$965K. 🔸 TrueCar ( $TRUE): Q4 loss (-$0.07) vs. est. (-$0.02), revs $46.2M (est. $47.3M). Expects Q1 rev growth in high single digits, Q1 adj. EBITDA loss ~$5M, but strong Q2-Q4 outlook w/ growing OEM incentives. 🔸 Wolverine ( $WWW): Q4 adj. EPS $0.42 (in-line), revs $494.7M (est. $485.74M). Gross margin up on lower costs, inventory down 35.6% YoY to $241M. 🔸 Devon Energy ( $DVN): Q4 EPS $1.16 (est. $1.00), revs $4.4B (est. $4.25B). Q4 oil production 398K bpd. FY25 capex $3.8B-$4.0B (50% to Delaware Basin). FY25 prod. 805K-825K boe/d, Q1 oil 380K-386K bpd. 🔸 EQT Corp. ( $EQT): Q4 EPS $0.69 (est. $0.49), adj. EBITDA $1.41B (est. $1.2B), revs $1.62B (est. $1.77B). FY25 FCF $2.6B-$3.3B, net debt ~$7B. 🔸 Magnolia Oil & Gas ( $MGY): Q4 EPS $0.44 (est. $0.45), adj. EBITDA $235.8M (est. $230.1M), revs $326.6M (est. $325.2M). FY25 capex $460M-$490M, production +5-7%. 🔸 Matador ( $MTDR): Q4 EPS $1.83 (est. $1.75); raises div. 25% to $1.25 annually. Record oil production 99.8K bpd (+32% YoY). FY25 oil prod. 120K-124K boe/d, nat gas 492M-504M cf/d. 🔸 Occidental ( $OXY): Q4 EPS $0.80 (est. $0.70), revs $6.76B (est. $7.14B). Hikes div. 9% to $0.24/share. Q1 prod. 1.37M-1.41M boe/d, FY25 1.385M-1.445M boe/d. Focus on debt reduction. 🔸 Shift4 ( $FOUR): Acquiring Global Blue (GB) for $7.50/share (15% premium, ~$2.5B EV). Q4 EPS $1.35 (est. $1.14), revs $887M (est. $1.006B). FY25 adj. EBITDA guide: $830M-$855M (est. $864.2M). 🔸 Compass ( $COMP): Q4 loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.07), revs $1.38B (est. $1.32B). Q1 revs $1.35B-$1.475B (est. $1.34B), Q1 adj. EBITDA $11M-$25M. 🔸 CoStar ( $CSGP): Q4 EPS $0.15 (est. $0.23), revs $709M (est. $703M). FY rev +11% YoY, Q4 net income +13%, EBITDA +43%. Approved $500M stock buyback. 🔸 XP Inc. ( $XP): Q4 EPS $2.23 (est. $2.20), revs $4.49B (est. $4.45B). Adj. ROAE 23.4%, adj. ROTE 29.2%. 🔸 Halozyme ( $HALO): Q4 EPS $1.06 (est. $1.16), revs $298M (est. $288.2M). FY25 revs $1.15B-$1.225B (est. $1.188B), adj. EBITDA $755M-$805M (est. $772.4M), adj. EPS $4.95-$5.35 (est. $4.90). 🔸 Penumbra ( $PEN): Q4 EPS $0.97 (est. $0.90), revs $315.5M (est. $311.5M). FY25 revs $1.34B-$1.36B (est. $1.362B), gross margin +100bps, op margin 13%-14%. 🔸 Petco ( $WOOF): Announced three new execs to drive operational improvements, naming Sabrina Simmons as CFO. 🔸 Supernus ( $SUPN): Shares drop after SPN-820 Phase 2b trial for treatment-resistant depression failed to meet primary endpoint. 🔸 Celanese ( $CE): Q4 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.20), revs $2.4B (est. $2.36B). Q1 EPS guide $0.25-$0.50 (est. $1.65) due to non-recurring costs. Sees continued demand/pricing weakness in key markets. 🔸 Element Solutions ( $ESI): Q4 EPS $0.35 (in-line), revs $624.2M (est. $595.8M). 🔸 Flowserve ( $FLS): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.77), revs $1.18B (est. $1.21B) bookings $1.2B, adj. gross margin 32.8%. Guides FY sales +5-7% (est. +8.57%) EPS $3.10-$3.30 (est. $3.25). 🔸 Sonoco ( $SON): Q4 EPS $1.00 (est. $1.20), revs $1.36B (est. $1.67B). FY25 EPS $6.00-$6.20 (est. $6.40), adj. EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B. 🔸 Arista Networks ( $ANET): Q4 adj. EPS $0.65 (est. $0.57), revs $1.93B (est. $1.904B) adj. gross margin 64.2%. Guides Q1 revs $1.93B-$1.97B (est. $1.907B) adj. gross margin ~63%, adj. op margin ~44%. 🔸 Cadence Design Systems ( $CDNS): Q4 adj. EPS $1.88 (est. $1.82), revs $1.356B (est. $1.35B). FY25 adj. EPS $6.65-$6.75 (below est. $6.82), revs $5.14B-$5.22B (est. $5.25B) Q4 op margin 46.0% (vs. 42.9% YoY). 🔸 MicroStrategy ( $MSTR): Offering $2B in convertible bonds due 2030 for general purposes, including Bitcoin acquisition. 🔸 Unisys ( $UIS): Q4 EPS $0.33 (est. $0.30), revs $545.4M (est. $550.93M) Sees 2025 rev growth 0.5%-2.5%, non-GAAP op margin 6.5%-8.5%. 🔸 NetEase ( $NTES): Fears of unloading all its overseas U.S. game holdings due to rising costs, coinciding with China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs. 🔸 Waystar ( $WAY): Files to sell 18M shares of common stock.
$BMBL $KTB $IFF $LZB $TOL $TRUE
-0.07%
$WWW
-4.57%
$DVN $EQT $MGY $MTDR $OXY $FOUR
+1.09%
$COMP
-1.8%
$CSGP $XP
-0.44%
$HALO $PEN
+2.54%
$WOOF
+0.56%
$SUPN $CE $ESI $FLS
+17.77%
$SON
+1.95%
$ANET $CDNS $MSTR
-99.97%
$UIS $NTES $WAY
#Downgrades - Dec 05, 2024 • $ABBV: Daiwa Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $180 • $AEO: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $23 (from $27) • $ALLY: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform • $AMAT: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $164 (from $179) • $CHWY: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $30 • $CNX: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $37 (from $31) • $DVN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $191 • $F: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Underperform from Peerperform • $FOUR: Benchmark Downgrades to Hold from Buy • $FWONA: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $GRAB: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.50 (from $4.25) • $MRVI : Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $4.25 (from $7) • $NAUT: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $1.75 (from $2.25) • $NCNO: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $38 • $OTIS: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $94 • $PB: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform • $PFG: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $80 (from $86) • $RLMD: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $1 (from $23) • $ROP: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Overweight - PT $569 (from $625) • $SBRA: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $20 • $SM: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $16 (from $15) • $VCYT: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $37 (from $38)
$ABBV $AEO $ALLY $AMAT $CHWY
+15.63%
$CNX $DVN $F
+15.46%
$FOUR
+1.09%
$FWONA $GRAB
-1.51%
$MRVI $NAUT $NCNO $OTIS $PB $PFG $RLMD $ROP
+1.91%
$SBRA $SM $VCYT
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