Notes
MORNING BID
Amazon ( $AMZN):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.86 (Est. $1.49)
🔸 Operating Income: $21.2B (Est. $19.145B)
🔸 Sales: $187.8B (Est. $187.299B)
Q1 Guidance:
🔸 Sales $151-155B (Est. $158.45B)
🔸 Operating Income $14-18B (Est. $18.347B)
🔸 AWS Sales: $107.6B
Tesla ( $TSLA):
🔸 China EV Sales in Jan: 63,238 units (-11.5% YoY, -32.6% MoM)
🔸 BYD Sales: 296,446 units (+47.5% YoY, -41.8% MoM)
Boyd Gaming ( $BYD):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.96 (Est. $1.79)
🔸 Revenue: $1.04B (Est. $1B)
🔸 Strong growth in Online segment
Elf Beauty ( $ELF):
🔸 Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76)
🔸 Revenue: $355.3M (Est. $330.39M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance:
🔸 EPS $3.27-$3.32 (from $3.47-$3.53)
🔸 Sales $1.3B-$1.31B (from $1.315B-$1.335B)
Expedia ( $EXPE):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $2.39 (Est. $2.04)
🔸 Adjusted EBITDA: $643M (Est. $570.9M)
🔸 Revenue: $3.184B (Est. $3.07B)
🔸 Gross Bookings: $24.422B
🔸 Dividend reinstated
Mohawk Industries ( $MHK):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.95 (Est. $1.85)
🔸 Revenue: $2.64B (Est. $2.54B)
🔸 Global Ceramic Sales: +1.5% reported, Flooring ROW Sales: -2.1% reported
🔸 Hurricane impact: ~$10M
Nikola ( $NKLA):
🔸 Shares decline on reports of potential sale, restructuring, or bankruptcy
Skechers ( $SKX):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.75)
🔸 Sales: $2.212B (Est. $2.22B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Sales $2.4-2.43B (Est. $2.486B), EPS $1.10-1.15 (Est. $1.55)
Bill Holdings ( $BILL):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.47)
🔸 Revenue: $362.6M (+14% YoY, Est. $359.99M)
🔸 Q3 Guidance: EPS $0.35-$0.38 (Est. $0.34)
🔸 Revenue $352.5M-$357.5M (Est. $360.37M)
Cloudflare ( $NET):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.19 (Est. $0.18)
🔸 Revenue: $459.9M (Est. $452.12M)
🔸 Added 55 customers spending >$1M/year in 2024
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Adj EPS $0.79-$0.80 (Est. $0.85), Revenue $2.09B-$2.094B (Est. $2.1B)
GoPro ( $GPRO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: -$0.09 (Est. -$0.12)
🔸 Revenue: $200.88M (Est. $196.5M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: EPS loss -$0.13 to -$0.03 (Est. -$0.08)
🔸 Revenue $115M-$135M (Est. $136.25M)
🔸 Gross Margin ~35%
Fortinet ( $FTNT):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.61)
🔸 Revenue: $1.66B (Est. $1.6B), Billings: $2B
🔸 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 39% (+720 bps YoY)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: EPS $2.41-$2.47 (Est. $2.42), Revenue $6.65B-$6.85B (Est. $6.63B)
Lumentum Holdings ( $LITE):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.42 (Est. $0.36)
🔸 Revenue: $402.2M (Est. $389.76M), Adj Gross Margin: 32.3%, Adj Op Margin: 7.9%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $410M-$425M (Est. $411.84M), Adj EPS $0.47-$0.53 (Est. $0.42)
Microchip Technology ( $MCHP):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.28)
🔸 Revenue: $1.026B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $0.05-$0.15 (Est. $0.27), Revenue $920M-$1.0B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 FY25 Capex: ~$135M
Monolithic Power Systems ( $MPWR):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $4.09 (Est. $3.98)
🔸 Revenue: $621.67M (Est. $608.09M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $610M-$630M (Est. $584.38M), Gross Margin 55.4%-56%
🔸 Dividend increased
Netflix ( $NFLX):
🔸 Considering bid for Formula One’s U.S. TV rights
Onto Innovation ( $ONTO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.51 (Est. $1.41)
🔸 Revenue: $263.939M (Est. $260.5M), Gross Margin: 50%
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $260M-$274M (Est. $267.4M), Adj EPS $1.40-$1.54 (Est. $1.49)
Pinterest ( $PINS):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.65)
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $470.943M (Est. $444.6M), Revenue: $1.154B (Est. $1.139B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $837M-$852M (Est. $832.78M), Adj EBITDA $155M-$170M (Est. $140.75M)
Qualys Inc. ( $QLYS):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.60 (Est. $1.37)
🔸 Revenue: $159.2M (Est. $156.27M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $5.50-$5.90 (Est. $6.09), Revenue $645M-$657M (Est. $651.13M)
SS&C Technologies ( $SSNC):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.58 (Est. $1.32)
🔸 Adj Op Income: $581.9M (Est. $569.2M), Adj Revenue: $1.5361B (Est. $1.483B)
🔸 FY Guidance: Adj Revenue $6.085B-$6.245B (Est. $6.159B), Adj EPS $5.64-$5.96 (Est. $5.75)
Synaptics ( $SYNA):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.92 (Est. $0.86)
🔸 Revenue: $267.2M (Est. $265.6M), Gross Margin: 53.6%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $250M-$280M (Est. $253.27M), Adj EPS $0.65-$1.05 (Est. $0.72)
Take-Two Interactive ( $TTWO):
🔸 Q3 EPS: -$0.71
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $88.8M, Revenue: $1.36B (Est. $1.39B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Revenue $1.52B-$1.62B (Est. $1.538B), Adj EBITDA $223M-$277M (Est. $327.92M)
ViaSat ( $VSAT):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.11 (Est. $0.05)
🔸 Revenue: $1.12B (Est. $1.13B)
🔸 On track for FY guidance; FY26 expects YoY revenue and Adj EBITDA growth, Capex ~$1.3B
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
Lamb Weston ( $LW): Shares dropped after naming Michael Smith as CEO on Jan 3, following activist investor Jana Partners' push for board changes or a sale. LW cut FY sales forecast to $6.35B-$6.45B from $6.6B-$6.8B after Q2 sales fell 8% to $1.6B; approved $250M buyback.
Lennar Corp. ( $LEN): Q4 revenue down 9.3% to $9.95B, below estimates. New orders dropped 2.7% to 16,895, backlog down 22%. Forecasts Q1 new orders at 17,500-18,000, deliveries at 17,000-17,500.
MillerKnoll Inc. ( $MLKN): Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.56 est., sales up 2.2% to $970.4M. Gross margin fell to 38.8%. Guides Q3 sales $903M-$943M, EPS $0.41-$0.47.
Steelcase ( $SCS): Q3 EPS $0.30 vs. $0.22 est., sales up 2.2% to $794.9M. Q4 guidance EPS $0.20-$0.24, revenue $770M-$795M.
Stanley Black & Decker ( $SWK): Upgraded to Outperform by Mizuho, price target $110, added to top picks.
Tri-Pointe Homes ( $TPH): Announced $250M stock buyback program.
Swiss Watch Exports: November exports down 3.8% to CHF 2.41B, with U.S. as the only top market increasing by 4.7%.
Palantir Technologies ( $PLTR): Extended U.S. Army contract worth up to $618.9M to enhance data operations, continuing data and AI support since 2018.
Block ( $SQ): Upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer with a $115 target, citing growth in Square's Gross Payment Volume due to product and sales investments.
Raymond James ( $RJF): November client assets under administration at $1.60T (+3.6% m/m), financial assets under management at $251.7B (+4.4% m/m).
Synchrony ( $SYF): Upgraded to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
Mesoblast ( $MESO): Shares up after FDA approval of Ryoncil for treating GVHD in pediatric patients not responding to steroids.
Prothena ( $PRTA): Phase IIb PADOVA study by Roche on prasinezumab for early Parkinson's missed its primary endpoint after 18 months.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( $VRTX): Phase 2 study of suzetrigine in LSR met primary endpoint with significant pain reduction; plans for Phase 3 advancement.
Micron Technology ( $MU): Q1 adj EPS $1.79 vs. $1.76 est., revenue up 84% to $8.71B. Shares fell after hours due to Q2 forecast below expectations: revenue $7.7B-$8.1B vs. $8.99B est., gross margin 37.5%-39.5% vs. 41.3% est., EPS $1.33-$1.53 vs. $1.92 est. FY25 capex about $14B. Memory stocks STX, WDC also dropped.
Accenture ( $ACN): Q1 EPS $3.59 vs. $3.42 est., revenue up 9% to $17.69B vs. $17.15B est. Operating margin at 16.7%. Lowered FY EPS guidance to $12.43-$12.79 from $12.55-$12.91.
Keybanc: Upgraded Okta ( $OKTA) and Fortinet ( $FTNT) to Overweight, downgraded https://t.co/n5rFzz3Pbq (AI) to Underweight.
U.S. Commerce Department: Awarded SK Hynix up to $458M for an advanced chip plant and R&D facility in Indiana for AI.