Notes
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024
• $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14
• $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40)
• $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33
• $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105)
• $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68)
• $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183
• $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60)
• $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80
• $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68)
• $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50)
• $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650
• $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29
• $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267
• $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13)
• $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16)
• $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
DAILY RECAP
$AAPL saw minimal smartphone shipment growth in 2024 amidst a strong market rebound, according to IDC.
$AMBA Q3 adj EPS $0.11 vs $0.03 est., revenue $82.7M vs $79.02M est.; Q4 rev guidance $76-80M.
$ADSK Q3 EPS $2.17 vs $2.12 est., revenue $1.57B vs $1.562B est.; Q4 revs $1.623-1.638B, FY revs $6.115-6.13B.
$CRWD Q3 EPS $0.93 vs $0.81 est., revenue $1.01B vs $982.36M est.; Q4 revs $1.029-1.035B.
$DELL Q3 EPS $2.15 vs $2.06 est., revenue $24.4B vs $24.72B est.; strong growth in infrastructure, slight decline in client solutions.
$HPQ Q4 EPS $0.93 as expected, revenue $14.1B vs $13.986B est.; Q1 and FY EPS guidance lowered.
$NTNX Q1 EPS $0.42 vs $0.32 est., revenue $591M vs $571.8M est.; Q2 rev guidance $635M-$645M.
$PD Q3 EPS $0.28 vs $0.17 est., revenue $118.9M vs $116.52M est.; Q4 revs $118.5-120.5M, FY revs $464.5-466.5M.
$WDAY Q3 EPS $1.89 vs $1.76 est., revenue $2.16B vs $2.13B est.; Q4 subscription revs lower than expected.
$DDD Q3 EPS ($0.12) vs ($0.10) est., revenue $112.9M vs $115.27M est.; FY rev guidance $440-450M, improving adj EBITDA.
$GES reported Q3 EPS at $0.34, under $0.38 expected, with revenue up 13% to $738.5M. They've cut FY25 EPS and revenue growth forecasts.
$JWN beat with Q3 EPS of $0.33 vs. $0.22, revenues up 4.3% to $3.46B, and raised FY24 revenue outlook.
$URBN excelled with Q3 EPS at $1.10 vs. $0.85, revenue up 6.3% to $1.36B. Growth in Anthropologie, Free People, and Nuuly, but a decline at Urban Outfitters.
$GRO priced its IPO at $15/share, offering 2M shares instead of the planned 4.25M.
$BYDDY is seeking supplier price reductions, bracing for tougher competition in China's EV market.
$SEDG is ending its storage division, cutting jobs by 500, with expected charges for assets and inventory.
$VWAGY has agreed to divest from its Xinjiang plant amidst human rights concerns.
$IREN reported a Q1 Bitcoin mining revenue drop to $49.6M from $54.3M due to higher network difficulty and lower Bitcoin prices, despite increased hashrate. AI Cloud Services revenue rose by 28% to $3.2M from $2.5M with new GPU's added. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $2.6M from $12.2M, with 813 Bitcoins mined compared to 821 in the prior quarter.
$ACAD has secured exclusive rights to SAN711 from Saniona for global development and sales.
$GRFS stock fell after Bloomberg reported Brookfield is set to abandon its €6.45 billion acquisition attempt due to pricing disagreements.
