Notes
为什么美股AI从炒算力延伸到炒电力，美国电力真增瓶颈是什么？为什么市场buy比特币矿企转型AI算力的逻辑是可行的？麦通的这个报告说的很详细https://t.co/X5fO45lzdQ掣肘AI巨头扩张的问题：并非芯片等而是电力不足，AI巨头的困境并非“买不起电”，而是“买不到即时可用的电力通道”。美国缺电的本质不是没电，而是“电到不了”。
从总量看，美国发电能力已超 1TW，理论上存在富余，但结构性矛盾极为突出：电能传输瓶颈与功率密度需求形成的 “错配”，才是真正的稀缺所在。所有新电力项目必须通过长达数年的 “系统影响评估”（System Impact Study），以验证新增负荷对电网稳定性的影响。新电厂或大规模 AI 数据中心的平均接入周期长达 5–7 年；叠加州级环评、土地规划与输电协调等流程，整个周期最长可达 10 年。
早年间为挖矿布局的比特币矿企，恰好手握美国最稀缺的战略资源 —— 已通过审批的电力接入许可。比特币矿场的本质是高密度用电设施，其先天属性使其在电力资源布局上具备先发优势。矿企在最初建设时就已完成三大核心布局：
1）向州电力公司申请 “大负荷互联”（Large Load Interconnection）许可；
2）投入重金建设配套变电站、输电线路与冷却系统；
3）与公用事业公司签署长期供电协议。 这些前置动作使矿企的电力许可成为电网系统中的 “已激活账户”，具备即时用电权。当 AI 数据中心还在等待批文时，矿企的站点已可随时上电运行。
根据大摩数据显示，美国比特币矿企合计已拥有 6.3GW 运营容量、2.5GW 在建项目，外加 8.6GW 已获电网许可的未来产能储备。更关键的是，这些资产改造为 AI 设施的周期仅需 18–24 个月，比新建 AI 中心节省 3–5 年时间。在 AI 成为国家级战略产业、电力接入极度稀缺的背景下，这种 “即时供电” 能力已成为制度性稀缺资产，自然带来确定性估值溢价。
而矿企转型AI算力，则是带来利润与估值体系双层重构：Needham 的测算显示，HPC/AI 托管业务单 MW 利润率可达 50–60%，是传统比特币挖矿模式的 4–6 倍。 这直接推动估值体系的重构：市场对转型矿企给予科技设施类企业的估值倍数（EV/EBITDA 10–15x），而传统矿企的估值倍数仅为 3–6x。反观传统 IDC 行业，因重资产扩张导致的折旧摊销压力，普遍面临 “增收不增利” 困境，更凸显矿企转型的成本优势。
麦通 MSX 研究院的估值模型显示，当矿企 30–50% 的产能转向 AI 托管，其整体估值弹性可达 2.5–4 倍。这一重构逻辑由三重因素驱动：比特币减半周期压缩挖矿利润、电力许可稀缺性凸显转型价值、AI 托管业务具备长期现金流稳定性。
看到麦通@MSX_CN上也有几家比特币矿企的股票代币https://t.co/vj9OdXKUfE 用稳定币交易美股更便捷。
感觉Mara值得看看：一家算力全球排名前五的比特币挖矿公司，持有5万多个比特币（持有大饼价值60亿美金）市值只有80多亿美金、并且每年还有大几亿美金的利润，相当市场给予其挖矿主营业务的估值其实很低。更重要的是三季度也开始利手里多余的电力往AI基础设施方向扩展，与谷歌支持的TAE Power和LG 支持的PADO AI合作开发电网响应负载平衡平台，服务AI基础设施需求，开始进军AI和高性能计算领域。
今年Mara还收购法国电力EDF的子公司Exaion的多数股权进入了欧洲市场，Exasion主营业务就是建设数据中心、提供云服务。Mara控股Exaion相当直接获得Tier-级别的GDPR合规数据中心，1200块GPU，看MARA官方的规划是未来两三年实现59%的国际收入来自AI相关业务。
而且Mara的液冷系统效率也是非常高的、这在未来运营数据中心很有优势。
上一个从比特币挖矿公司转型到数据中心的 $IREN 已经是今年的十倍股了。这么看 $MARA 之后表现可期。
@MSX_CN 看到麦通上也有MARA的股票代币https://t.co/vj9OdXKUfE 用稳定币交易美股更便捷。
比特币挖矿行业面临巨大转变：电力成关键 - Helene Braun
文章告诉我们矿股公司遇到的困境和机遇，是不错的总结。
未来展望 比特币仍是核心，但矿工需规模、成本效率抗波动。Terawulf比作数据中心；Marathon持币价值被低估；IREN运营领先。Schultz认为，比特币可成能源系统基础层，帮助平衡电网，而非纯投机。
地点：怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔（SALT会议）
比特币挖矿传统上受四年减半周期影响，经历繁荣与萧条。但在最近SALT会议上，行业高管表示，这种模式已改变。ETF兴起、电力需求激增及AI基础设施变革，要求矿工多元化，否则将被淘汰。
关键观点：
- 从哈希率转向电力货币化：CleanSpark CEO Matt Schultz称，以前讨论哈希率，现在焦点是如何利用兆瓦电力赚钱。比特币ETF已吸收超过今年产出的比特币，推动需求。CleanSpark运营800兆瓦电力，开发1.2吉瓦，转向AI等新领域，拥有33个站点更灵活。
- 行业残酷现实：Terawulf CFO Patrick Fleury直言挖矿极难。以5美分/千瓦时电价，挖一枚比特币成本约6万美元；比特币价11.5万美元时，电力占一半收入，加上其他成本，利润微薄。盈利靠超低电价。Bitmain持续生产设备，自行部署，增加网络难度，挤压他人利润。
- 转型案例：Terawulf上周与谷歌签67亿美元协议，将矿场转为数据中心，获32亿美元支持，降低融资成本。过程需4-5个月尽职调查。
- IREN的策略：首席商业官Kent Draper表示，公司运营50 exahash，年收入10亿美元，毛利率75%，EBITDA利润率65%。暂停挖矿扩张，转向AI共置和云服务，回报期短（约2年）。
- Marathon Digital的灵活性：CFO Salman Khan比作石油行业，强调强大资产负债表。持有比特币作为对冲，最近收购Exaion多数股权，聚焦边缘计算、主权数据控制，提供 recurring revenues。
共同主题：电力为主 所有高管强调，电力是新“货币”。用于挖矿、AI或电网平衡。CleanSpark每年 curtail 120小时用电，节省1/3成本；在佐治亚州等地锁定闲置电力。
$MARA $CLSK $IREN
Max pain from a market perspective is a massive accumulation range breakout then a year of re-accumulation(Sign of Strength) followed by violent drop back into the accumulation range where all the stop losses sit only to deviate back to finally begin expansion when nobody cares
Basically what we see in all the Bitcoin Miner charts like $IREN
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024
• $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14
• $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40)
• $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33
• $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105)
• $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68)
• $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183
• $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60)
• $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80
• $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68)
• $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50)
• $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650
• $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29
• $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267
• $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13)
• $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16)
• $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
DAILY RECAP
$AAPL saw minimal smartphone shipment growth in 2024 amidst a strong market rebound, according to IDC.
$AMBA Q3 adj EPS $0.11 vs $0.03 est., revenue $82.7M vs $79.02M est.; Q4 rev guidance $76-80M.
$ADSK Q3 EPS $2.17 vs $2.12 est., revenue $1.57B vs $1.562B est.; Q4 revs $1.623-1.638B, FY revs $6.115-6.13B.
$CRWD Q3 EPS $0.93 vs $0.81 est., revenue $1.01B vs $982.36M est.; Q4 revs $1.029-1.035B.
$DELL Q3 EPS $2.15 vs $2.06 est., revenue $24.4B vs $24.72B est.; strong growth in infrastructure, slight decline in client solutions.
$HPQ Q4 EPS $0.93 as expected, revenue $14.1B vs $13.986B est.; Q1 and FY EPS guidance lowered.
$NTNX Q1 EPS $0.42 vs $0.32 est., revenue $591M vs $571.8M est.; Q2 rev guidance $635M-$645M.
$PD Q3 EPS $0.28 vs $0.17 est., revenue $118.9M vs $116.52M est.; Q4 revs $118.5-120.5M, FY revs $464.5-466.5M.
$WDAY Q3 EPS $1.89 vs $1.76 est., revenue $2.16B vs $2.13B est.; Q4 subscription revs lower than expected.
$DDD Q3 EPS ($0.12) vs ($0.10) est., revenue $112.9M vs $115.27M est.; FY rev guidance $440-450M, improving adj EBITDA.
$GES reported Q3 EPS at $0.34, under $0.38 expected, with revenue up 13% to $738.5M. They've cut FY25 EPS and revenue growth forecasts.
$JWN beat with Q3 EPS of $0.33 vs. $0.22, revenues up 4.3% to $3.46B, and raised FY24 revenue outlook.
$URBN excelled with Q3 EPS at $1.10 vs. $0.85, revenue up 6.3% to $1.36B. Growth in Anthropologie, Free People, and Nuuly, but a decline at Urban Outfitters.
$GRO priced its IPO at $15/share, offering 2M shares instead of the planned 4.25M.
$BYDDY is seeking supplier price reductions, bracing for tougher competition in China's EV market.
$SEDG is ending its storage division, cutting jobs by 500, with expected charges for assets and inventory.
$VWAGY has agreed to divest from its Xinjiang plant amidst human rights concerns.
$IREN reported a Q1 Bitcoin mining revenue drop to $49.6M from $54.3M due to higher network difficulty and lower Bitcoin prices, despite increased hashrate. AI Cloud Services revenue rose by 28% to $3.2M from $2.5M with new GPU's added. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $2.6M from $12.2M, with 813 Bitcoins mined compared to 821 in the prior quarter.
$ACAD has secured exclusive rights to SAN711 from Saniona for global development and sales.
$GRFS stock fell after Bloomberg reported Brookfield is set to abandon its €6.45 billion acquisition attempt due to pricing disagreements.
