Notes
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 Big Tech ( $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA): Lower as China imposes 34% tariffs on U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs.
🔸 China stocks ( $BABA, $BIDU, $PDD, $JD, $SINA, $NTES): Trading sharply lower.
🔸 EU vs. "X": Possible $1B fine for disinformation law violations.
🔸 Five9 ( $FIVN): Q1 EPS, revenue in line or better than guidance; 4% workforce reduction.
CONSUMER
🔸 Booking Holdings ( $BKNG): Upgraded to Buy (BTIG), target $5,500.
🔸 Guess ( $GES): Q4 adj. EPS $1.48 (est. $1.40), revenue $932.3M (+4.6% y/y, est. $912.3M). Gross margin 44.1% (vs. 45.4%). 2026 revenue forecast +3.9%-6.2%, EPS $1.32-$1.76 (est. $2.07). Alberto Toni named CFO. Plans to close unprofitable stores.
🔸 Kraft Heinz ( $KHC): Downgraded to Sell (Citigroup), target cut to $27 due to sales growth concerns.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 ExxonMobil ( $XOM): Q1 earnings impact: Energy products (-$0.3B to -$0.7B), upstream (liquids/gas: $0.0B to -$0.4B), chemicals (-$0.1B to $0.1B), specialty (-$0.3B to -$0.1B).
🔸 Matador Resources ( $MTDR): Selling Eagle Ford assets, board reviewing stock repurchase.
🔸 Shell ( $SHEL): Selling 16.125% Colonial Enterprises stake to Brookfield (BIP) for $1.45B.
FINANCIALS
🔸 Cboe ( $CBOE): Q1 options volume 1.1B contracts, March ADV 18.8M (record).
🔸 Franklin Resources (BEN): March AUM $1.53T (Feb: $1.57T), $4B net outflows.
🔸 Progressive ( $PGR): Downgraded to Neutral (Bank of America), target cut to $287 from $300.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 LifeCore ( $LFCR): Q3 EPS -$0.47 (est. -$0.15), revs $35.2M (est. $33.23M). FY guidance: revs $126.5M-$130M, adj. EBITDA $19M-$21M.
🔸 Simulations Plus ( $SLP): Q2 adj. EPS $0.31 (est. $0.12), revs $22.4M (est. $21.9M). FY guidance: revs $90M-$93M, adj. EPS $1.07-$1.20 (est. $0.47).
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
RECAP
• $AAP Q3: Sales down 21% to $2.15B, below $2.67B forecast; EPS at -$0.04 vs. $0.49 expected. Plans include store and distribution center closures, and headcount cuts.
• $BZH Q4: Revenue up 25% to $806.2M vs. $777.8M expected; Adjusted EBITDA down 10.5%. Home closings up 4.8%, but gross margin decreased.
• $BV Q4: Adj. EPS $0.30 vs. $0.31 est., revenue slightly below at $728.7M. FY guidance lower than expected.
• $CPRI ends merger with Tapestry, which then ups its share buyback plan.
• $IBTA Q3: EPS $0.94 vs. $0.35 forecast, revenue up 16% to $98.6M. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations.
• $JJSF Q4: Adj. EPS $1.60 vs. $1.85 expected, sales slightly under $429.75M estimate.
• $HP Q4: EPS $0.76 vs. $0.81 expected, revenue $694M vs. $695.24M forecast. FY25 CapEx guidance $290M-$325M, depreciation around $400M, R&D $32M.
• $HI Q4: Adj. EPS $1.01 vs. $0.92 expected, revenue $837.6M vs. $792.98M. Q1 and FY25 EPS guidance below estimates.
• $OVV agrees to acquire Montney assets for $2.377B cash from Paramount Resources Ltd.
• $TTEK Q4: EPS $0.38 vs. $0.37 expected, revenue $1.37B vs. $1.135B. Provides next quarter and FY guidance.
• $NU Q3: Adjusted net income $592M vs. $559M est., revenue $2.9B as expected, ROE at 30%.
• $OPRX Q3: EPS $0.12 vs. $0.06 est., revenue $21.3M vs. $25M. FY guidance below expectations.
• $TARS Q3: EPS ($0.61) vs. ($0.97) est., sales $48.1M vs. $43.44M.
• $CSCO Q1: EPS $0.91 vs. $0.87, revenue $13.84B vs. $13.77B. Provides Q2 and FY guidance.
• $DIS Q2: EPS $1.14 vs. $1.10, revenue $22.57B vs. $22.47B. Forecasts high-single digit EPS growth for FY25.
• $ASML expects sales to reach €44B-€60B by 2030, with 8%-14% annual growth.
• $DDD Q3 prelim: Revenue about $113M, with growth in materials but decline in printer sales.
• $DIGI Q4: EPS $0.52 vs. $0.50, revenue $105.1M vs. $104.08M. Q1 guidance set.
• $JD Q3: EPS $1.24 vs. $1.05, revenue up 5.1% to $37.1B. No Q4 guidance.
• $KLIC Q4: EPS $0.34 vs. $0.35, revenue $181.3M vs. $180M. Announces share repurchase and dividend increase.
• $NN Q3: EPS ($0.11) vs. ($0.16), revenue $1.61M vs. $1.105M.
• $SONO Q4: EPS ($0.18) vs. ($0.41), revenue $255.38M vs. $247.36M. No forward guidance.
• $SYNA to issue $400M in convertible notes due 2031.
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
$ONCO, up 82.4%
$CNEY, up 57.8%
$BMY: up 4.4% premarket, Gains as FDA approves its schizophrenia drug
China ADRs extend their rally on latest stimulus push
$BABA: up 0.4% premarket
$JD: up 2.6% premarket
$PDD, up 1.33% premarket
$LI: up 0.4% premarket
$SAVA: down 11.7% premarket, after SEC charges co for misleading Alzheimer's drug trial claims
$COST: down 1.0% premarket, after Q4 results; brokerages hike PT
$DG: down 2.5% premarket, Citi downgrades Dollar General citing tough sales recovery as Walmart takes market share
$ESTA: up 27.3% premarket, on US FDA nod for Motiva breast implants
$KMX: up 0.7% premarket, Brokerages raise Carmax PT on expectations of recovery in US used car market
$WVE: up 2.2% premarket, JP Morgan resumes coverage with 'overweight'
$IONQ: up 8.1% premarket, Gains on $54.5 mln contract with US Air Force Research Lab
$BMBL: down 2.2% premarket, Down after KeyBanc downgrades to 'sector weight'