最近美股机构的13F报告集中披露，巴菲特公司伯克希尔，逆势抄底了联合健康(#UNH)深受瞩目，受此消息刺激，联合健康股价在今天盘前大涨10%，收回300美金以上。我决定今晚跟一手巴菲特的操作。🧐 今天在看美股机构13F报告时候，发现一个挺有意思的现象——市场大部分人避之不及，可巴菲特、David Tepper、文艺复兴、Michael Burry、沙特PIF这些大佬都在抄底。伯克希尔甚至是时隔14年重新杀回医疗保险板块，一口气买了504万股，价值15.7亿美元。 为什么我决定今晚跟一手呢？因为这帮老狐狸肯定不是为了短线博反弹，而是觉得这公司在被错杀。 📊先看 #UNH 基本面： 规模：美国最大医疗保险公司，2024年收入4003亿美元，净利润144亿美元，这规模在美股医疗板块里基本是“航空母舰”级别。 盈利能力：过去15年，分红每年都涨，而且盈利稳定——这是典型的“防御型现金牛”。 估值：现在的股价回到2020年的水平，市盈率只有12倍——这种龙头公司在正常市场环境下，保守预估20倍不算离谱。 我举个最直观的栗子🌰： 如果2003年底你花1万美元买了 #UNH，哪怕算上最近的暴跌，今天这笔钱大约还能变成10万美元，中途分红全程上调。要是暴跌前收益表现更佳，预估是18万美元。这种长期稳定复利能力，是真正的机构偏好标的。 📝#UNH 为什么暴跌？ 这波下杀不是因为财务崩了，而是市场对风险的预期陡然升高： 1️⃣潜在刑事调查：司法部在查它，虽然公司说“充满信心”，但这种事一旦升级，可能影响合同、信誉。 2️⃣业绩指引暂停：7月公司直接取消年度业绩展望，还甩锅说“医疗需求激增导致环境突变”，这会让投资者觉得不确定性大增。 3️⃣高层变动：CEO Andrew Witty突然辞职（个人原因），临危换回老将Hemsley。换帅往往是风险信号，尤其是遇到监管风暴时。 4️⃣政策压力：美国政府削减医疗支出，医疗成本上涨，这对保险公司是双杀。 5️⃣网络安全和公众形象：网络攻击、CEO被枪杀这种黑天鹅事件，虽然和核心财务没直接关系，但对品牌和舆论压力不小。 我的抄底逻辑，其实很简单，首先肯定是这些大佬开始抄底了，给了我充足的信心支持。另外估值的确是便宜，虽然利空也不少，刑事调查、指引暂停、政策不确定性，这些事对股价冲击，已经实质性表现出来，也算消化的七七八八了，毕竟股价从600+跌下来的。 因为我个人是偏好价值长线投资，假如您跟我一样，是那种5年以上视野的价值投资者，这种时刻往往是布局的好机会。因为 #UNH 的基本盘——医疗保险的刚需性、行业龙头地位、庞大会员基础——没变。美国人口老龄化趋势还在，长期医疗需求只会更高。所以中长期来看，是相对确定性比较高的！ 我觉得现在买 #UNH 有点像2008年买强生（#JNJ）——短期麻烦多、市场不爱，但长线可能是最甜的果子。跟随大佬们，用时间和耐心等市场情绪修复。🧐

桥水清仓中概股的新闻，今天在各个金融群炸锅了，毕竟我也是买了桥水在中国的基金，华润创意桥云9号，今年业绩十分突出，有40%+回报率。但突然主体基金清仓中国的策略，让人始料未及！ 我们仔细研究了Ray Dalio 这次 Bridgewater 2025年二季度的13F报告，简单一句话来看：老爷子这是彻底“弃船”中国互联网股，转头一头扎进了美股 AI 巨头的怀抱。 1️⃣彻底撤出中国互联网 Bridgewater 直接清仓了 $BABA 、 $PDD 、 $BIDU 、 $JD ，套现大约 11.3 亿美金。 这不只是“减仓”，这是“清空冰箱”式的退出。 在我看来，原因可能有三： • 中国经济复苏不及预期，消费、出口两头承压 • 政策不确定性高，尤其是平台经济监管阴影尚存 • 美股这边 #AI 赛道收益率太诱人，机会成本太高 换句话说，Dalio 不是觉得中国没潜力，而是觉得短期内资本效率太低，不如直接把钱放到能立刻跑起来的赛道，尤其是 #AI 领域。 2️⃣重仓 #AI 和美股科技巨头 这季度的增持动作可以用“暴力”来形容： • $NVDA 加了 154%，一下多了 5.52 亿美金，现在成了第三大持仓 • $MSFT 加了 3.93 亿 • $GOOGL 加了 4.18 亿 • 甚至 $UBER 也猛加 5.31 倍 这个组合直接把 #AI 核心硬件（ $NVDA ）+ AI 应用平台（ $MSFT 、 $GOOGL 、 $META ）绑成一个战车，明显是押注未来 3-5 年的 #AI 基础设施浪潮。而且 $Uber 也很有意思，说明他们看好 #AI 在出行、物流等实际场景的渗透。 3️⃣ETF 还是核心底仓，但开始“修剪” 虽然 $SPY 、 $IVV 、 $IEMG 还是大仓位，但 Dalio 这次减了 SPY 21.9%，套了 4.52 亿美金。 这是一种“从大水池里舀水出来，倒进 #AI 桶里”的操作。ETF 作为被动收益的底仓还在，但加了更多主动进攻型仓位。 整体思考来看，目前A股3700点，恒生25270点，标普500 6468点，美股目前历史高位，如此大力度加仓美股，撤出中国市场，说明以桥水为代表的外资，短期在中国市场看不到正向回报，就不占着资金池。而此刻这种历史高位，全面加码 #AI 赛道，把资金集中到最具确定性、最受资金追捧的核心标的上，这种抓大放小的策略，也是值得深思。作为全天候策略，依旧保留ETF被动敞口，用ETF来保底，防止单一赛道波动太大。投资组合上，攻守平衡，既追 #AI 大趋势，又保留防守余地！值得学习借鉴🧐

Michael Burry’s newest holdings: Added: $EL Closed: $BABA, $JD, $BIDU, $PDD

*TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING DELISTING OF CHINESE STOCKS ON U.S. EXCHANGES $BABA $KWEB $BIDU $JD $PDD

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM 🔸 Big Tech ( $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA): Lower as China imposes 34% tariffs on U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs. 🔸 China stocks ( $BABA, $BIDU, $PDD, $JD, $SINA, $NTES): Trading sharply lower. 🔸 EU vs. "X": Possible $1B fine for disinformation law violations. 🔸 Five9 ( $FIVN): Q1 EPS, revenue in line or better than guidance; 4% workforce reduction. CONSUMER 🔸 Booking Holdings ( $BKNG): Upgraded to Buy (BTIG), target $5,500. 🔸 Guess ( $GES): Q4 adj. EPS $1.48 (est. $1.40), revenue $932.3M (+4.6% y/y, est. $912.3M). Gross margin 44.1% (vs. 45.4%). 2026 revenue forecast +3.9%-6.2%, EPS $1.32-$1.76 (est. $2.07). Alberto Toni named CFO. Plans to close unprofitable stores. 🔸 Kraft Heinz ( $KHC): Downgraded to Sell (Citigroup), target cut to $27 due to sales growth concerns. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 ExxonMobil ( $XOM): Q1 earnings impact: Energy products (-$0.3B to -$0.7B), upstream (liquids/gas: $0.0B to -$0.4B), chemicals (-$0.1B to $0.1B), specialty (-$0.3B to -$0.1B). 🔸 Matador Resources ( $MTDR): Selling Eagle Ford assets, board reviewing stock repurchase. 🔸 Shell ( $SHEL): Selling 16.125% Colonial Enterprises stake to Brookfield (BIP) for $1.45B. FINANCIALS 🔸 Cboe ( $CBOE): Q1 options volume 1.1B contracts, March ADV 18.8M (record). 🔸 Franklin Resources (BEN): March AUM $1.53T (Feb: $1.57T), $4B net outflows. 🔸 Progressive ( $PGR): Downgraded to Neutral (Bank of America), target cut to $287 from $300. HEALTHCARE 🔸 LifeCore ( $LFCR): Q3 EPS -$0.47 (est. -$0.15), revs $35.2M (est. $33.23M). FY guidance: revs $126.5M-$130M, adj. EBITDA $19M-$21M. 🔸 Simulations Plus ( $SLP): Q2 adj. EPS $0.31 (est. $0.12), revs $22.4M (est. $21.9M). FY guidance: revs $90M-$93M, adj. EPS $1.07-$1.20 (est. $0.47).

Premkt $VIX: 38 $BABA: -8.29% $JD: -7.77% $XPEV: -7.49% $AMZN: -5.40% $AMD: -5.29% $INTC: -5.22% $TSLA: -5.13% $AAPL: -4.73% $NIO: -4.55% $NKE: -4.41% $MSFT: -4.38% $META: -4.25% $RIVN: -3.82% $NVDA: -3.80% $GOOGL: -3.07% $AMC: -2.27%

BREAKING: Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management) updated their portfolio. As soon as his filing comes in, we update the full positions and portfolios on Unusual Whales. Get it live and first! He reduced $BABA, $JD, added $EL, and sold out of $JD $BIDU, adding $PDD $HCA $VFC.

I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend Subscriber Agenda Video: Why did miners fade into the close? Charts: New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over) Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE

RECAP • $AAP Q3: Sales down 21% to $2.15B, below $2.67B forecast; EPS at -$0.04 vs. $0.49 expected. Plans include store and distribution center closures, and headcount cuts. • $BZH Q4: Revenue up 25% to $806.2M vs. $777.8M expected; Adjusted EBITDA down 10.5%. Home closings up 4.8%, but gross margin decreased. • $BV Q4: Adj. EPS $0.30 vs. $0.31 est., revenue slightly below at $728.7M. FY guidance lower than expected. • $CPRI ends merger with Tapestry, which then ups its share buyback plan. • $IBTA Q3: EPS $0.94 vs. $0.35 forecast, revenue up 16% to $98.6M. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations. • $JJSF Q4: Adj. EPS $1.60 vs. $1.85 expected, sales slightly under $429.75M estimate. • $HP Q4: EPS $0.76 vs. $0.81 expected, revenue $694M vs. $695.24M forecast. FY25 CapEx guidance $290M-$325M, depreciation around $400M, R&D $32M. • $HI Q4: Adj. EPS $1.01 vs. $0.92 expected, revenue $837.6M vs. $792.98M. Q1 and FY25 EPS guidance below estimates. • $OVV agrees to acquire Montney assets for $2.377B cash from Paramount Resources Ltd. • $TTEK Q4: EPS $0.38 vs. $0.37 expected, revenue $1.37B vs. $1.135B. Provides next quarter and FY guidance. • $NU Q3: Adjusted net income $592M vs. $559M est., revenue $2.9B as expected, ROE at 30%. • $OPRX Q3: EPS $0.12 vs. $0.06 est., revenue $21.3M vs. $25M. FY guidance below expectations. • $TARS Q3: EPS ($0.61) vs. ($0.97) est., sales $48.1M vs. $43.44M. • $CSCO Q1: EPS $0.91 vs. $0.87, revenue $13.84B vs. $13.77B. Provides Q2 and FY guidance. • $DIS Q2: EPS $1.14 vs. $1.10, revenue $22.57B vs. $22.47B. Forecasts high-single digit EPS growth for FY25. • $ASML expects sales to reach €44B-€60B by 2030, with 8%-14% annual growth. • $DDD Q3 prelim: Revenue about $113M, with growth in materials but decline in printer sales. • $DIGI Q4: EPS $0.52 vs. $0.50, revenue $105.1M vs. $104.08M. Q1 guidance set. • $JD Q3: EPS $1.24 vs. $1.05, revenue up 5.1% to $37.1B. No Q4 guidance. • $KLIC Q4: EPS $0.34 vs. $0.35, revenue $181.3M vs. $180M. Announces share repurchase and dividend increase. • $NN Q3: EPS ($0.11) vs. ($0.16), revenue $1.61M vs. $1.105M. • $SONO Q4: EPS ($0.18) vs. ($0.41), revenue $255.38M vs. $247.36M. No forward guidance. • $SYNA to issue $400M in convertible notes due 2031.

STOCKS ON THE MOVE $ONCO, up 82.4% $CNEY, up 57.8% $BMY: up 4.4% premarket, Gains as FDA approves its schizophrenia drug China ADRs extend their rally on latest stimulus push $BABA: up 0.4% premarket $JD: up 2.6% premarket $PDD, up 1.33% premarket $LI: up 0.4% premarket $SAVA: down 11.7% premarket, after SEC charges co for misleading Alzheimer's drug trial claims $COST: down 1.0% premarket, after Q4 results; brokerages hike PT $DG: down 2.5% premarket, Citi downgrades Dollar General citing tough sales recovery as Walmart takes market share $ESTA: up 27.3% premarket, on US FDA nod for Motiva breast implants $KMX: up 0.7% premarket, Brokerages raise Carmax PT on expectations of recovery in US used car market $WVE: up 2.2% premarket, JP Morgan resumes coverage with 'overweight' $IONQ: up 8.1% premarket, Gains on $54.5 mln contract with US Air Force Research Lab $BMBL: down 2.2% premarket, Down after KeyBanc downgrades to 'sector weight'