Notes
$JNJ RESULTS:
🔸 Q1, - ADJ EPS $2.77 vs. $2.71 y/y, EST $2.60
🔸 Sales $21.89B, +2.4% y/y, EST $21.58B
🔸 MedTech sales $8.02B, +2.5% y/y, EST $8.19B
🔸 Imbruvica revenue $709M, -9.6% y/y, EST $680.3M
🔸 Invega Sustenna revenue $903M, -14% y/y, EST $1.06B
🔸 Darzalex revenue $3.24B, +20% y/y, EST $3.1B
🔸 Erleada revenue $771M, +12% y/y, EST $818.5M
🔸 Tremfya revenue $956M, +18% y/y, EST $930.2M
🔸 Remicade revenue $467M, +7.6% y/y, EST $364.1M
🔸 Stelara revenue $1.63B, -34% y/y, EST $1.61B
🔸 Zytiga revenue $125M, -31% y/y, EST $124.8M
🔸 Xarelto revenue $690M, +33% y/y, EST $521.1M
🔸 Simponi rev. $659M, +19% y/y, EST $509.7M
🔸 R&D expenses $3.23B, EST $3.61B
F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Sees sales $91B to $91.8B, saw $89.2B to $90B
🔸 Sees ADJ operating EPS $10.50 to $10.70, saw $10.75 to $10.95
🔸 Still sees ADJ EPS $10.50 to $10.70
MARKET UPDATES:
CONSUMER:
🔸 $DG upgraded to Overweight (BofA).
🔸 Macau casinos ($WYNN, $LVS, $MLCO, $MGM): Gaming revenue +0.8% YoY.
🔸 $LI: March deliveries 36,674 (+26.5% YoY).
🔸 $NIO: March deliveries 15,039 (+14% MoM).
🔸 $PVH: Q4 EPS $3.27 (beat), revenue -4.8% YoY.
🔸 $TSLA: Denmark sales -65.6% YoY.
🔸 $ULTA: Upgraded to Buy, price target raised to $423.
ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS:
🔸 $AAL, $DAL, $LUV: Downgraded (Jefferies).
🔸 Oil: Brent stabilizes after Trump’s Russia comments.
🔸 $CVX: Sells East Texas gas assets ($1.2B+ value).
🔸 $EE: 7M-share secondary offering priced at $26.50.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 $LPLA: 4.7M-share secondary offering at $320.
🔸 $V: $375M escrow deposit, reducing Class B shares.
🔸 $WRB: Downgraded (BofA).
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 $JNJ: $10B talc settlement rejected by U.S. judge.
🔸 Drugmakers: Lobby Trump to phase in pharma tariffs.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $LYV, $SEAT: Fall after Trump’s executive order on ticket pricing.
🔸 $PRGS: Q1 EPS $1.31 (beat), raises full-year guidance.
🔸 $SPIR: Q4 EPS loss ($2.21), weak Q1 outlook.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
Companies are telling their investors how President Donald Trump’s plan to radically remake the US government poses new risks to their businesses, per Bloomberg.
In recent weeks, Chipotle Mexican Grill, $CMG, warned about potential tariffs on avocados and limes. Johnson & Johnson, $JNJ, sees a risk that Food and Drug Administration cuts will slow down medicine approvals. And American Airlines, $AAL, alerted shareholders to possible additional charges for aircraft and parts from outside the US.
MORNING BID
Baidu ( $BIDU) Q4 Revenue: ¥34.12B (-2% y/y, Est. ¥33.32B) 📉
🔹 Ad revenue down 7% to ¥17.9B, offset by AI Cloud growth (+26% y/y).
Broadcom ( $AVGO) & Intel ( $INTC):
🔹 Broadcom held informal talks on acquiring Intel’s chip-design unit (WSJ).
🔹 No formal offer yet; deal uncertain.
Roku ( $ROKU): Files mixed securities shelf.
Alcohol Industry Struggles:
🔹 Younger consumers opt for moderation/abstinence, hurting alcohol sales.
🔹 Underperforming stocks: TAP, DEO, BF/B, BUD.
🔹 Winners: Nonalcoholic brands like Athletic Brewing & Ritual Zero Proof thrive.
🔹 Anglo American ( $NGLOY): Selling nickel unit to MMG Ltd for up to $500M, refocusing on copper & iron ore.
🔹 Delta ( $DAL): Regional jet flipped on landing in Toronto amid high winds; 18 injured.
🔹 Diamondback ( $FANG): Acquires Double Eagle units for 6.9M shares + $3B cash to expand Midland Basin.
🔹 Entergy ( $ETR): Q4 adj. EPS $0.66 (Est. $0.63); FY25 guidance: $3.75-$3.95 (Est. $3.92).
🔹 H&E ( $HEES): Accepts Herc Rentals' $5.3B bid, rejecting United Rentals' offer (FT).
🔹 Sealed Air ( $SEE): CEO Patrick Kivits steps down; Dustin Semach appointed; FY24 outlook reaffirmed.
🔹 Capital One ( $COF): Jan. net charge-offs 6.12% (vs. 5.71% y/y); delinquencies 4.61% (vs. 4.78% y/y).
🔹 Discover ( $DFS): Jan. credit card delinquency 1.80%, charge-off 2.63% (SEC filing).
🔹 JPMorgan ( $JPM): Jan. credit card delinquency 0.88%, charge-off 1.64% (SEC filing).
🔹 Janus Henderson ( $JHG): Expanding into Saudi Arabia to grow Middle East presence (Bloomberg).
🔹 KKR ( $KKR): Buying 5% more of Eni’s (E) Enilive biofuel unit for €587.5M, raising stake to 30%.
🔹 Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ): Faces court decision today on $10B settlement over baby powder litigation; Judge Lopez to decide on Chapter 11 filing.
🔹 Medtronic ( $MDT): Q3 adj. EPS $1.39 (Est. $1.36); Q3 revs +2.5% y/y to $8.29B (Est. $8.33B); maintains full-year guidance.
🔹 Oculis ( $OCS): 5M share secondary priced at $20.00 per share.
$JNJ RESULTS: Q4
🔸 ADJ EPS $2.04 vs. $2.29 y/y, EST $1.99
🔸 Sales $22.52B, +5.3% y/y, EST $22.43B
🔸 MedTech sales $8.19B, +6.7% y/y, EST $8.23B
🔸 Imbruvica revenue $731M, -7.2% y/y, EST $711.6M
🔸 Invega Sustenna revenue $1.06B, +5.1% y/y, EST $1.03B
🔸 Darzalex revenue $3.08B, +21% y/y, EST $3.02B
🔸 Erleada revenue $784M, EST $792.1M,
🔸 Tremfya revenue $949M, +4.3% y/y, EST $1.05B
🔸 Remicade revenue $359M, -16% y/y, EST $371.8M
🔸 Stelara revenue $2.35B, -15% y/y, EST $2.4B
🔸 Zytiga revenue $135M, -33% y/y, EST $134.4M
🔸 Xarelto revenue $676M, +29% y/y, EST $512.4M
🔸 Simponi rev. $583M, +16% y/y, EST $502.7M
F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Sees sales $89.2B to $90B
🔸 Sees ADJ operating EPS $10.75 to $10.95
🔸 Sees ADJ EPS $10.50 to $10.70
Everything you need to know on The Rundown podcast by @public
TOP MARKET HEADLINES
* Trump buys time for TikTok with executive order
* FDA approves $JNJ's nasal spray for depression
* Nancy Pelosi buys $TEM call options
* $AAPL gets rare downgrade to Underperform
https://t.co/j8Xgw4tOd0
MORNING BID
🔸 $CWAN acquires $ENFN for $11.25/share, totaling $1.5B, including $30M to end Enfusion's tax agreement.
🔸 $NVDA and $AMD drop due to new U.S. AI chip export controls, effective in 120 days.
🔸 $UNH, $CI, $CVS, $HUM up after U.S. proposes 2.2% increase in 2026 Medicare Advantage payments.
🔸 $SAGE confirms $BIIB $7.22/share acquisition proposal.
🔸 $EXAS reports Q4 revenue $713M, FY24 $2.76B; plans three new cancer tests in 2025.
🔸 $HOLX Q1 revenue $1.022B, slightly below expectations due to currency impact.
🔸 $JNJ to buy $ITCI for $132/share, valuing deal at $14.6B.
🔸 $NTRA Q4 revenue $472M, FY24 guidance $1.7B.
🔸 $RXST FY25 revenue guidance $185M-$197M, gross margin 71%-73%.
🔸 $BEN AUM dropped to $1.58T in Dec '24 from $1.65T in Nov '24 due to market downturn and $18.9B net outflows.
🔸 $LZ upgraded by JPMorgan to Overweight from Underweight, price target raised to $9 from $8.
🔸 $CLMT secured a $1.44B DOE loan to expand its Montana Renewables facility.
🔸 Biden admin delayed Nippon Steel's (NPSCY) $14.9B bid for $X to June, after blocking it on Jan. 3 for national security.
🔸 $ASO highlighted by Barron's for recovery potential in 2025 despite recent sales dips.
🔸 $BNED files for a $100M mixed shelf offering.
🔸 BMW saw sales decline due to China demand drop and recalls.
🔸 $BOOT Q3 EPS $2.43 vs. $2.05 est., revenue $608.2M vs. $593.45M, with 8.6% same-store sales growth.
🔸 $HSY CEO Michele Buck to retire by June 30, 2026.
🔸 $KSS to close San Bernardino EFC and 27 stores by April 2025, incurring $60M-$80M in charges.
🔸 $LULU ups Q4 EPS to $5.81-$5.85, revenue to $3.56B-$3.58B, with gross margin up 30 bps.
🔸 $JWN reports 4.9% net sales, 5.8% comp sales growth for holiday, expects 2.5%-3.5% comp sales growth for FY24.