Notes

At close: $UNH $LLY $COST $WMT $HTZ $NFLX To create your own heatmaps and save them:
$UNH $LLY $COST
+27.36%
$WMT $HTZ $NFLX
A daily pill by Eli Lilly, $LLY, may be as effective in lowering blood sugar and aiding weight loss as injections like Ozempic. Stock is up 11% in premarket.
$LLY
🚨Final S&P 500 Weekly Heat Map: $NVDA -14% $AAPL -13.5% $JPM -13.4% $META -12.5% $AMZN -11.3% $LLY -10.3% $TSLA -9.1% $GOOGL -5.3% $MSFT -5% Bloodbath on Wall Street. 🩸
$NVDA
+5.46%
$AAPL $JPM $META
+1.03%
$AMZN $LLY $TSLA
-16.31%
MARKET UPDATE CONSUMER 🔸 $SPWH Q4 adj. EPS $0.04 (est. -$0.06) on revs $340.4M (est. $329.6M), comps -0.5%. Expects positive comps in 2025; sees FY net sales -1% to +3.5% (est. +0.4%). 🔸 $TSLA sold 78,828 China-made EVs in March (-11.5% YoY); Model 3/Y deliveries +156.9% MoM. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 Oil dips amid tariff, sanction concerns; OPEC+ supply and mixed policies add downside risks. 🔸 $BHP considers spinning off Australian iron ore & coal units. 🔸 $ED files debt securities shelf. 🔸 $SMG upgraded to Buy at Truist. FINANCIALS 🔸 $OZK raises dividend 2.38% to $0.43/share. 🔸 $SCHW upgraded to Buy at Citi, PT raised to $102 (from $85). 🔸 $SMA prices 27M-share offering at $30.00. 🔸 $V offers AAPL ~$100M for Apple Card deal (WSJ). HEALTHCARE 🔸 $ANGO Q3 adj. EPS -$0.08 (est. -$0.13) on revs $72M (est. $70.3M); raises FY guidance. 🔸 $EWTX reports positive Phase 2 data for EDG-7500 in HCM trial. 🔸 $LLY clarifies no ties to HIMS, Zepbound prescribable by any licensed provider. 🔸 $ENOV names Damien McDonald CEO (effective May 12). TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM 🔸 $MBLY selects VLN’s VA7000 chipsets for autonomous driving. 🔸 $NCNO Q4 adj. EPS -$0.09 (est. $0.19) on revs $141.4M (est. $140.8M); announces $100M buyback; guides Q1 revs $138.75-$140.75M (est. $145.47M) and EPS $0.15-$0.16 (est. $0.21). 🔸 $RMBL fires CFO Tiffany Kice (effective April 2, 2025), appoints Michael Quartieri as interim CFO.
$SPWH $TSLA
-16.31%
$BHP $ED $SMG
-44.35%
$OZK
-4.62%
$SCHW $SMA $V $ANGO $EWTX $LLY $ENOV $MBLY $NCNO $RMBL
Wells Fargo's Q2 2025 Tactical Ideas list includes 10 stocks with key catalysts. Overweight: $CHKP, $COF, $CPRI, $DLTR, $KKR, $LLY, $PTCT, $ROKU, $RYTM. Underweight: $TSLA, citing weak auto fundamentals and overvaluation vs. the Magnificent 7. Notes Cybercab launch in June as unlikely due to limited testing.
$CHKP $COF $CPRI $DLTR $KKR $LLY $PTCT $ROKU $RYTM $TSLA
-16.31%
BREAKING: Eli Lilly, $LLY, maker of popular diabetes and weight-loss medicines, says it will invest $27 billion in building four manufacturing plants in the U.S., creating thousands of new jobs
$LLY
$LLY - LILLY 'OPTIMISTIC' MEDICARE WILL COVER OBESITY DRUGS: CFO
$LLY
$LLY Q4 Results: • Revenue: $13.53B, +45% YoY (Est: $13.45B) • Trulicity: $1.25B, -25% YoY (Est: $1.36B) • Mounjaro: $3.53B • Zepbound: $1.91B, +52% QoQ • Humalog: $619.9M, +69% YoY (Est: $500.1M) • Taltz: $952.0M, +21% YoY (Est: $943.3M) • Verzenio: $1.56B, +36% YoY (Est: $1.55B) • Adj EPS: $5.32 vs. $2.49 YoY • R&D Expenses: $3.02B, +18% YoY (Est: $3.02B) 2025 Forecast: • Adj EPS: $22.50-$24.00 (Est: $23.17)
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BofA Updates US 1 List Additions: Datadog, Inc. ( $DDOG) Booz Allen Hamilton ( $BAH) Removals: Eli Lilly & Co. ( $LLY) Renewal: Apple Inc. ( $AAPL) after 52 weeks on the list.
$DDOG $BAH $LLY $AAPL
$LLY - OZEMPIC STUDY FOUND SMALL NUMBER OF PATIENTS WITH VISION LOSS
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MORNING RECAP ❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition. ❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%. ❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60. ❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain. ❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%. ❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M. ❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues. ❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025. ❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030. ❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M. ❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences. ❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share. ❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows. ❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation. ❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share. ❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient. ❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B. ❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B. ❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M. ❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M. ❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities. ❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns. ❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
$ALK $CASY $EBAY $STLA $TOL $MTN $NGLOY $CE $FLNC $PL $AMZN $INTU $AJG $CNS $LAZ $LLY $FATE $HQY $ORCL
-1.1%
$BRZE $AI
+5.36%
$MU $MDB $TSM
-8.8%
$PFE $LLY - PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP, RFK JR. MET WITH PFIZER AND LILLY EXECS - AXIOS
$PFE $LLY
MORNING RECAP Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04) ╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M) ╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8% ╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B ╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08) ╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M) ╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate) ╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70 ╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5% ╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8% General Motors ( $GM): ╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV: ╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B ╌Reduced value: $2.7B Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04) ╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M) ╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M) ╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M ╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M Volkswagen ( $VWAGY): ╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk. Crescent Energy ( $CRGY): ╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments. Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR): ╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each. Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance: ╌LTL tons/day: -8% ╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8% ╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2% XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics: ╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year. ╌Shipments/day down 4.2%. ╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%. Goldman Sachs ( $GS): ╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share. Iris Energy ( $IREN): ╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030. Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF): ╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase. ╌Increases dividend to $0.50. Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4: ╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65) ╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B) ╌Dividend raised by 4.2%. Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO): ╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss. Novavax ( $NVAX): ╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction. Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD): ╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each. Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44) ╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B) ╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B ╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65) ╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11) Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3: ╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M) ╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q ╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70 ╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3: ╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08)) ╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M) ╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3: ╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41) ╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B) ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05 ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B) Okta Inc. ( $OKTA): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58) ╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M ╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74 ╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B ╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): ╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42) ╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M) ╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M ╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): ╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
$DLTR $FL $GM
+24.49%
$CURV $VWAGY $CRGY $LUNR $ODFL $XPO $GS $IREN $RJF $RY $LLY $NVO $NVAX $RVMD $CRM $BOX
-14.25%
$BASE
-9.31%
$MRVL $OKTA $PSTG $NXPI $TSM
-8.8%
$LLY - Eli Lilly's Zepbound Tops Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in Weight Loss in New Study -- WSJ Zepbound Helped People Lose 20.2% of Body Weight After 72 Weeks, Versus 13.7% for Wegovy -- WSJ Weight-Loss Results Are From Study Sponsored by Zepbound Maker Eli Lilly -- WSJ
$LLY
$LLY $NVO - White House Proposes Expansion of Medicare, Medicaid Payments for Obesity Drugs -- WSJ U.S. Proposal Would Make Millions Eligible for Coverage of Weight-Loss Drugs -- WSJ Medicare Currently Pays for Limited Use of Weight-Loss Drugs -- WSJ
$LLY $NVO
Stock Gainers Brief: • $CVS: +3%; added four new board members, including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital, expanding to 16 members; upgraded by Wells Fargo. • $FOUR: +4%; to join S&P MidCap 400 in place of RCM on November 20. • $HOOD: +6%; upgraded to Buy by Needham due to expected benefits from Trump's policy changes at SEC. • $LBRT: +2%; stock up with Chris Wright, a fracking advocate, nominated for Energy Secretary. • $MBI: +10%; upgraded to Outperform by KBW with a new $9 target after favorable legal and earnings news. • $SMCI: +9%; plans to meet Nasdaq compliance requirements for continued listing. • $TSLA: +8%; due to Trump team's interest in autonomous vehicle regulations. • $WOLF: +5%; CEO Gregg Lowe ousted, Thomas Werner steps in as Executive Chairman during CEO search. Stock Laggards Brief: • $BIIB: -1%; downgraded to Hold by Needham, with no expected upside in the next year. • $CMAX: -55%; filed for bankruptcy with $693M in debt, $390M in assets. • $LLY: -4%; continues to decline with other obesity/healthcare stocks. • $MARA: -6%; issuing $700M in convertible notes. • $NGNE: -35%; halted development of high-dose gene therapy due to serious side effect. • $PLTR: -9%; despite being a top S&P performer YTD, sees significant drop. • $UBER & $LYFT: -6%; both affected by news of potential regulations for autonomous vehicles.
$CVS $FOUR
+1.09%
$HOOD
+2.78%
$LBRT $MBI $SMCI $TSLA
-16.31%
$WOLF
+17.93%
$BIIB $CMAX $LLY $MARA $NGNE $PLTR $UBER $LYFT
ELI LILLY SHARES DOWN 9% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 RESULTS MISS
$LLY
$LLY RESULTS: Q3 🔸 ADJ EPS $1.18 vs. $0.10 y/y 🔸 Revenue $11.44B, +20% y/y, EST $12.18B 🔸 Trulicity revenue $1.30B, -22% y/y, EST $1.21B 🔸 Mounjaro revenue $3.11B, EST $3.62B 🔸 Zepbound revenue $1.26B, +1.2% q/q, EST $1.63B 🔸 Humalog revenue $534.6M, +35% y/y, EST $423.6M 🔸 Taltz revenue $879.6M, +18% y/y, EST $839.4M 🔸 Jardiance revenue $686.4M, -2.1% y/y, EST $823.7M 🔸 Verzenio rev. $1.37B, +32% y/y, EST $1.39B
$LLY
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