Notes
MARKET UPDATE
CONSUMER
🔸 $SPWH Q4 adj. EPS $0.04 (est. -$0.06) on revs $340.4M (est. $329.6M), comps -0.5%. Expects positive comps in 2025; sees FY net sales -1% to +3.5% (est. +0.4%).
🔸 $TSLA sold 78,828 China-made EVs in March (-11.5% YoY); Model 3/Y deliveries +156.9% MoM.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 Oil dips amid tariff, sanction concerns; OPEC+ supply and mixed policies add downside risks.
🔸 $BHP considers spinning off Australian iron ore & coal units.
🔸 $ED files debt securities shelf.
🔸 $SMG upgraded to Buy at Truist.
FINANCIALS
🔸 $OZK raises dividend 2.38% to $0.43/share.
🔸 $SCHW upgraded to Buy at Citi, PT raised to $102 (from $85).
🔸 $SMA prices 27M-share offering at $30.00.
🔸 $V offers AAPL ~$100M for Apple Card deal (WSJ).
HEALTHCARE
🔸 $ANGO Q3 adj. EPS -$0.08 (est. -$0.13) on revs $72M (est. $70.3M); raises FY guidance.
🔸 $EWTX reports positive Phase 2 data for EDG-7500 in HCM trial.
🔸 $LLY clarifies no ties to HIMS, Zepbound prescribable by any licensed provider.
🔸 $ENOV names Damien McDonald CEO (effective May 12).
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 $MBLY selects VLN’s VA7000 chipsets for autonomous driving.
🔸 $NCNO Q4 adj. EPS -$0.09 (est. $0.19) on revs $141.4M (est. $140.8M); announces $100M buyback; guides Q1 revs $138.75-$140.75M (est. $145.47M) and EPS $0.15-$0.16 (est. $0.21).
🔸 $RMBL fires CFO Tiffany Kice (effective April 2, 2025), appoints Michael Quartieri as interim CFO.
Wells Fargo's Q2 2025 Tactical Ideas list includes 10 stocks with key catalysts.
Overweight: $CHKP, $COF, $CPRI, $DLTR, $KKR, $LLY, $PTCT, $ROKU, $RYTM.
Underweight: $TSLA, citing weak auto fundamentals and overvaluation vs. the Magnificent 7. Notes Cybercab launch in June as unlikely due to limited testing.
$LLY Q4 Results:
• Revenue: $13.53B, +45% YoY (Est: $13.45B)
• Trulicity: $1.25B, -25% YoY (Est: $1.36B)
• Mounjaro: $3.53B
• Zepbound: $1.91B, +52% QoQ
• Humalog: $619.9M, +69% YoY (Est: $500.1M)
• Taltz: $952.0M, +21% YoY (Est: $943.3M)
• Verzenio: $1.56B, +36% YoY (Est: $1.55B)
• Adj EPS: $5.32 vs. $2.49 YoY
• R&D Expenses: $3.02B, +18% YoY (Est: $3.02B)
2025 Forecast:
• Adj EPS: $22.50-$24.00 (Est: $23.17)
MORNING RECAP
❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition.
❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%.
❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60.
❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain.
❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%.
❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M.
❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues.
❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025.
❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030.
❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M.
❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences.
❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share.
❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows.
❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation.
❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share.
❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient.
❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B.
❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B.
❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M.
❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M.
❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities.
❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns.
❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
Stock Gainers Brief:
• $CVS: +3%; added four new board members, including Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital, expanding to 16 members; upgraded by Wells Fargo.
• $FOUR: +4%; to join S&P MidCap 400 in place of RCM on November 20.
• $HOOD: +6%; upgraded to Buy by Needham due to expected benefits from Trump's policy changes at SEC.
• $LBRT: +2%; stock up with Chris Wright, a fracking advocate, nominated for Energy Secretary.
• $MBI: +10%; upgraded to Outperform by KBW with a new $9 target after favorable legal and earnings news.
• $SMCI: +9%; plans to meet Nasdaq compliance requirements for continued listing.
• $TSLA: +8%; due to Trump team's interest in autonomous vehicle regulations.
• $WOLF: +5%; CEO Gregg Lowe ousted, Thomas Werner steps in as Executive Chairman during CEO search.
Stock Laggards Brief:
• $BIIB: -1%; downgraded to Hold by Needham, with no expected upside in the next year.
• $CMAX: -55%; filed for bankruptcy with $693M in debt, $390M in assets.
• $LLY: -4%; continues to decline with other obesity/healthcare stocks.
• $MARA: -6%; issuing $700M in convertible notes.
• $NGNE: -35%; halted development of high-dose gene therapy due to serious side effect.
• $PLTR: -9%; despite being a top S&P performer YTD, sees significant drop.
• $UBER & $LYFT: -6%; both affected by news of potential regulations for autonomous vehicles.
ELI LILLY SHARES DOWN 9% PREMARKET AFTER Q3 RESULTS MISS
$LLY RESULTS: Q3
🔸 ADJ EPS $1.18 vs. $0.10 y/y
🔸 Revenue $11.44B, +20% y/y, EST $12.18B
🔸 Trulicity revenue $1.30B, -22% y/y, EST $1.21B
🔸 Mounjaro revenue $3.11B, EST $3.62B
🔸 Zepbound revenue $1.26B, +1.2% q/q, EST $1.63B
🔸 Humalog revenue $534.6M, +35% y/y, EST $423.6M
🔸 Taltz revenue $879.6M, +18% y/y, EST $839.4M
🔸 Jardiance revenue $686.4M, -2.1% y/y, EST $823.7M
🔸 Verzenio rev. $1.37B, +32% y/y, EST $1.39B