For those who missed $NVDA at $12... Don't miss the AI Memory bull run. NFA! $AMAT $LRCX $MRAM $MRVL $MU $NTAP $PSTG $RMBS $SIMO $SNDK $STX $WDC See you on the other side... 🫡📈

2026 年投资基本就只有 7 条路： 1. GOOG 2. AMD，INTC，NVDA。这些是芯片，半导体的坑占好了，AI 需求就带着整个产业链自然起飞，选个自己喜欢公司买入长期拿住的就好 3. MU，海力士，三星电子。这些 HBM 全年都熊不起来，除非中国工厂发大招影响 NAND（SNDK、铠侠）再间接影响 4. 存储扩产相关，美股 $ASML $LRCX $AMAT $KLAC，日股 $8035.T $4063.T 5. 核电和铀 ETF $NLR 6. ORCL 抄底，确定性应该大于找 OpenAI IPO 相关的机会， 7. 币股抄底，MSTR 破净以后类似上轮 GBTC 的机会，现在还有 1.2。MARA / CLSK PB 已经破净。CRCL 看不懂，但主题有稀缺性 除了 GOOG、ORCL、币股，都是 AI token 需求指数增长打线性产能扩张的盘子，暂时看不出会深熊的基本面，一定要坚定 token 使用量三个月翻倍的信仰

做多扩产

本周宏观数据上没有什么特别值得关注的，甚至今天凌晨鲍威尔的讲话都也没有太多关注度了，以前大家盯着鲍师傅开口的第一句话就能上下波动个3%，而现在经过川普的一系列打击，市场已经明白了他只是一个期货死人，作为美联储主席的他讲话就只能引发百分之零点几的影响了。 这周毫无疑问最值得关注的是美股七姐妹们的财报，从币圈视角来看，大哥二哥长时间的萎靡不振让大家被迫越来越多的将注意力转移到美股市场上，各交易所也上线了更多的股币，黄金白银古金属大宗期货。随着资产标的融合，纽交所纳斯达克推出24小时全天候交易计划，传统券商和币圈交易所的界限逐渐模糊。 从周三开始，微软、Meta和特斯拉将在盘后率先公布业绩，苹果财报将于周四发布，七姐妹的业务重点仍然在AI领域的发展，但与之前相比，现在市场更看重资本开支，也就是从此前的讲故事阶段逐渐过渡到看哪家的投入产出比更高。 尤其值得一提的是Meta四季度业绩、一季度指引、全年资本支出超预期，股价盘后大涨逾11%。刚好 #MSX研究院 非常及时的推出了Meta财报解析，这份财报分析读下来，最核心的感触就是：扎克伯格终于为他的“烧钱癖好”找到了一个华尔街能听懂、且愿意买单的闭环逻辑。 过去市场担心 Reality Labs 每年亏掉几百亿是打水漂，但现在，Meta 证明了 AI 投入能让广告单价涨 6%、展示量涨 18%。这种即时反馈是微软和谷歌目前都还没能完全在财报中如此清晰展现的。 而资本就是这么现实，他们不想等10年后虚拟世界多么成功，他们只想当下业绩快速增长。

存储扩产作为比存储 Supercycle 更不可逆的长期趋势重点关注： $ASML $LRCX $8035.T $AMAT $KLAC

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Analyst Price Target Updates: 🔻 Cuts: 🔸 $ACVA: Jefferies $25 ($27), Needham $25 ($28) 🔸 $ALB: Piper Sandler $85 ($90) 🔸 $AMGN: Bernstein $350 ($380) 🔸 $CE: Jefferies $55 ($70), JPM $54 ($92), RBC $56 ($84), Downgraded to Sector Perform 🔸 $ETSY: BTIG $60 ($65), Canaccord $76 ($105), Guggenheim $70 ($80) 🔸 $EXAS: Jefferies $80 ($85), Leerink $85 ($95) 🔸 $WST: Jefferies $240 ($393) 🔸 $WING: Benchmark $325, Bernstein $330 ($380), Jefferies $270 ($280), TD Cowen $305 ($365) 🔸 $ZTS: Jefferies $190 ($200) 🔺 Raises: 🔸 $AMPL: Baird $17 ($12), Outperform; Piper Sandler $17 ($15) 🔸 $ADI: JPM $300 ($280), Oppenheimer $270 ($245), Piper Sandler $240 ($220), TD Cowen $280 ($260) 🔸 $AIZ: KBW $230 ($212), Upgraded to Outperform 🔸 $AXSM: H.C. Wainwright $200 ($190) 🔸 $BELFA: Needham $100 ($95) 🔸 $BMRN: Scotiabank $80 ($78) 🔸 $CVNA: D.A. Davidson $260 ($220), Jefferies $265 ($225), Needham $340 ($330), RBC $320 ($280) 🔸 $CRL: JPM $165 ($175) 🔸 $CAKE: Citigroup $67 ($66), Jefferies $63 ($58) 🔸 $CWAN: Piper Sandler $36 ($28), Upgraded to Overweight 🔸 $CVS: Bernstein $71 ($52) 🔸 $DVN: Bernstein $48 ($50), JPM $48 ($45) 🔸 $EQT: JPM $58 ($53) 🔸 $GTLB: Wells Fargo $85 ($80) 🔸 $IFF: Citigroup $99 ($100) 🔸 $KVYO: Barclays $51 ($47), Benchmark $54 ($51), Needham $56 ($46), Piper Sandler $53 ($50) 🔸 $LRCX: Susquehanna $125 ($75), Upgraded to Positive 🔸 $MTDR: JPM $76 ($75) 🔸 $RBA: CIBC $116 ($108) 🔸 $RELY: JPM $30 ($21) 🔸 $ROKU: Jefferies $100 ($55), Upgraded to Hold 🔸 $TOST: JPM $42 ($36), KBW $42 ($40) 🔸 $TNL: Jefferies $70 ($62) 🔸 $VRTX: RBC $408 ($407) 🆕 Coverage Initiations: 🔸 $SEI: Piper Sandler Overweight, PT $37 🔸 $ORA: Jefferies Buy (from Hold), PT $78 ($73)

MORNING BID 🔸 $CVGW: Q4 EPS 5c vs. -2c last year; revenue up 19.5% to $170M vs. $161.93M est.; adj EBITDA $6.7M. 🔸 $GM: Multi-year deal with Vianode for synthetic graphite for EV batteries. 🔸 $TSLA: SEC sues Elon Musk for late disclosure of Twitter stake in 2022. 🔸 $VAL, $RIG, $NE, $HP, $SLB, $NOV: Downgraded to In Line from Outperform by Evercore/ISI. 🔸 $Oil Market: IEA reports 2025 oil surplus at 725k b/d, down from 950k b/d. 🔸 $Aluminum: Prices up slightly; EU eyes import limits from Russia, China's growth slows. 🔸 $PKE: Q3 EPS $0.08, sales $14.4M. 🔸 $BK: Q4 adj EPS $1.72 vs. $1.56 est.; AUM $2T; fee revenue +9% to $3.51B; net interest +8% to $1.19B; AUC/A $52.1T, up 9%. 🔸 $BHLB: Files for offering of up to 3.45M shares. 🔸 $BLK: Q4 adj EPS $11.93 vs. $11.22 est.; revenue +23% to $5.68B; AUM record $11.55T; operating margin 45.5%; $281B inflows Q4. 🔸 $DFS: Charge-off rate 2.55%, delinquency rate 1.76% at Dec 2024. 🔸 $JPM: Q4 EPS $4.81 vs. $4.04 est.; revenue $42.8B; charge-offs 1.63%, delinquencies 0.84%; FICC trading $5.01B vs. $4.37B est.; credit loss $2.63B; ROE 17%, ROTCE 21%; $486B inflows 2024. 🔸 $WFC: Q4 EPS $1.43 vs. $1.35 est.; net interest $11.84B; revenue $20.38B; commercial banking $3.17B, investment banking $4.61B, wealth management $3.96B. 🔸 $KROS: Paused dosing in TROPOS trial for pulmonary hypertension due to pericardial effusion concerns in safety review. 🔸 $VCEL: Lowers FY24 revenue forecast to $237M-$237.5M from $238M-$242M; raises gross margin to 72.5%; maintains EBITDA margin at 22%; Q4 revenue expected at $75.2M-$75.7M, under consensus. 🔸 $APLD: Q2 adj EPS ($0.06) vs. ($0.15) est.; EBITDA $21.4M vs. $19.68M est.; revenue $63.9M; cloud services +523% to $27.7M. 🔸 $PI: Maintains Q4 revenue and EBITDA guidance; expects EBITDA $13.6M-$15.1M, revenue $91M-$94M. 🔸 $LRCX: Downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform by Wolfe Research. 🔸 $LASR: Q4 revenue forecast $46M-$48M, below $52M est.; lower than expected margins and EBITDA. 🔸 $MGNI: Expands partnership with Samsung Ads for programmatic ads in Southeast Asia. 🔸 $S: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. 🔸 U.S. Policy: New regulations planned to limit chip exports to China from TSMC, Samsung, and others.

DAILY RECAP **BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year. **Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting. **Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359. **NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands. **Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half. **XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+. **Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031. **IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization. **LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns. **Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately. **Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues. **Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan. **Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley. **Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley. **Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley. **Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth. **SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns. **U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.