Notes
MARKET UPDATES:
CONSUMER:
🔸 $DG upgraded to Overweight (BofA).
🔸 Macau casinos ($WYNN, $LVS, $MLCO, $MGM): Gaming revenue +0.8% YoY.
🔸 $LI: March deliveries 36,674 (+26.5% YoY).
🔸 $NIO: March deliveries 15,039 (+14% MoM).
🔸 $PVH: Q4 EPS $3.27 (beat), revenue -4.8% YoY.
🔸 $TSLA: Denmark sales -65.6% YoY.
🔸 $ULTA: Upgraded to Buy, price target raised to $423.
ENERGY & INDUSTRIALS:
🔸 $AAL, $DAL, $LUV: Downgraded (Jefferies).
🔸 Oil: Brent stabilizes after Trump’s Russia comments.
🔸 $CVX: Sells East Texas gas assets ($1.2B+ value).
🔸 $EE: 7M-share secondary offering priced at $26.50.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 $LPLA: 4.7M-share secondary offering at $320.
🔸 $V: $375M escrow deposit, reducing Class B shares.
🔸 $WRB: Downgraded (BofA).
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 $JNJ: $10B talc settlement rejected by U.S. judge.
🔸 Drugmakers: Lobby Trump to phase in pharma tariffs.
TECH & MEDIA:
🔸 $LYV, $SEAT: Fall after Trump’s executive order on ticket pricing.
🔸 $PRGS: Q1 EPS $1.31 (beat), raises full-year guidance.
🔸 $SPIR: Q4 EPS loss ($2.21), weak Q1 outlook.
#Downgrades - Mar 03, 2025
• $AGCO: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $100 (from $116)
• $CNH: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $15 (from $16)
• $DE: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $501
• $DG: Deutsche Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $80 (from $90)
• $DV: Cannonball Research Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $14
• $FOX: Arete Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $66
• $FTAI: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $123 (from $100)
• $KC: Nomura Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18.10 (from $6.70)
• $KRP: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Strong Buy
• $LUV: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $25
• $SRE: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $77 (from $96)
• $TNDM: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $25 (from $35)
• $TNDM: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $22 (from $38)
• $ZLAB: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $36.10 (from $29)
MORNING BID
$AAPL downgraded to Sell by MoffettNathanson, target price $188.
$AUR shares up 50% with new partnerships with Continental and Nvidia for deploying driverless trucks using Nvidia's DRIVE Thor and DriveOS.
$GETY and $SSTK to merge, forming a $3.7B visual content company under the ticker "GETY".
$META adds Dana White, John Elkann, and Charlie Songhurst to its board.
$MU shares rise following Nvidia's mention of using Micron's memory in new gaming chips.
$NVDA revealed new AI tech for robotics and self-driving, plus new gaming chips and a desktop computer at CES; expects automotive revenue growth.
$NXPI to buy TTTech Auto for $625 million to enhance autonomous vehicle safety software.
$LULU upgraded to Outperform by Bernstein, target now $460 from $360.
$TSLA downgraded to Neutral by Bank America, tgt up to $490 from $400, citing improved sentiment and growth recognition since April 2024 upgrade.
$ULTA CEO Dave Kimbell to retire; Kecia Steelman named new CEO, strong holiday performance, Q4 margin outlook raised.
$AZEK CFO Peter Clifford resigns to join a private firm outside the building products sector.
$APOG) Q3 EPS $1.19, beating consensus $1.11; revenue $341.34M vs. $332.19M expected. Cuts FY25 EPS guidance to $4.90-5.20, lowers revenue growth to -5% from -7% to -4%.
$GFL sold Environmental Services to $APO and BC Partners for $8.0B, retaining $1.7B equity, expecting $6.2B cash after taxes.
$RPM Q2 EPS $1.39 vs. $1.34 expected; revenue $1.85B vs. $1.79B. Maintains FY25 sales growth in low single digits.
$LUV sold and leased back 36 $BA 737-800s to Babcock & Brown, generating $871M from 35 aircraft in late December.
MORNING RECAP
• $ASO announces a $700M share buyback.
• $AEO Q3 EPS $0.48 vs. $0.46 est., rev down -0.9% to $1.29B; cuts annual sales growth forecast to 3%, expects Q4 comp sales +1%, total rev -4%.
• $CHPT Q3 loss (-$0.18) vs. est. (-$0.09), rev -10% to $99.6M; Q4 rev guidance $95M-$105M. Networked charging systems down -29%, subscription rev up +19%.
• $COST November comp sales +3.1%, net sales +5.6% to $21.87B; Q1 sales +7.5% to $60.99B.
• $FIVE Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. $0.17 est., sales +15% to $843.7M; Q4 sales guide $1.35B-$1.38B, comp sales expected to decline.
• $PVH Q3 adj EPS $3.03 vs. $2.59 est., rev $2.26B vs. $2.22B; Q4 rev expected -7% to -6%, EPS $3.05-$3.20.
• $PG now sources Gillette razor steel from India to mitigate potential Trump tariffs.
• $AVAV Q2 rev $188.5M vs. $182.9M est.; adj EBITDA $25.9M vs. $31.7M est.; maintains FY25 EPS $3.18-$3.49, revenue $790M-$820M.
• $APD: Mantle Ridge now nominates only four for the board, down from nine.
• $CULP Q2 adj op income ($2.6M) vs. ($3.589M) est., sales $55.7M vs. $58M est.; expects flat to slightly down Q3 sales, positive EBITDA in 2H, profitable by Q4.
• $GEF Q4 EPS $1.08 vs. $1.10 est.; rev up 8.3% to $1.42B, adj EBITDA down 0.8% to $197.6M; FY25 adj EBITDA expected at $675M low-end.
• $LUV boosts Q4 revenue per seat mile forecast to 5.5%-7% from 3.5%-5.5%, due to pricing and travel demand.
• $FI stock falls as CEO Frank Bisignano is nominated by Trump to lead the SSA.
• $FOUR downgraded to Hold from Buy after CEO Jared Isaacman is chosen by Trump to head NASA.
• $HOOD plans Asia expansion, setting up in Singapore.
NYPD seeks man who killed UnitedHealth $UNH executive Brian Thompson outside a Manhattan hotel, suspect fled into Central Park.
TSM discussing with $NVDA to manufacture AI chips in Arizona.
• $AMAT downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley due to memory market concerns.
• $HPE upgraded to Overweight, target price raised post-Juniper acquisition.
• $NCNO Q3 adj EPS $0.21 vs $0.16 est., Q4 rev guidance below estimates.
• $OOMA Q3 EPS $0.17 vs $0.16 est., raised yearly outlook.
• $S Q3 EPS loss ($0.25) vs $0.01 est., slightly beat on revenue for Q4 and year.
• $SNPS Q4 adj EPS $3.40 vs $3.30 est., Q1 guidance below expectations.
• $VRNT Q3 EPS $0.54 vs $0.43 est., strong SaaS growth, FY25 revenue guidance up.
• $DIS increases dividend to $1.00 per share.
• $SMTC launches $400M stock offering.
#Downgrades - Nov 26, 2024
• $AAL: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $16
• $BC: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $88 (from $95)
• $EG: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $429 (from $420)
• $GS: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $HUBB: Deutsche Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $473 (from $493)
• $LUV: UBS Downgrades to Sell from Buy - PT $27
• $MS: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy
• $SUM: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $52.50 (from $55)
• $SUM: Longbow Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $52.50
• $SUM: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
• $SUM: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $52.50 (from $54)
• $SAVA: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $TGT: Daiwa Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $130 (from $170)
• $FIBK: DA Davidson Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $42
• $GMS: DA Davidson Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $97
$LUV RESULTS: Q3
🔸 ADJ EPS $0.15 vs. $0.38 y/y, EST $7.10
🔸 Operating revenue $6.87B, +5.3% y/y, EST $6.81B
🔸 Passenger revenue $6.25B, +5.7% y/y, EST $6.16B
🔸 Freight revenue $43M, -2.3% y/y, EST $45.9M
🔸 Other revenue $577M, +1.4% y/y, EST $588.7M
🔸 ADJ net income $89M, -63% y/y, EST $51M
🔸 ADJ operating income $32M, -86% y/y, EST loss $12.9M
🔸 Available seat miles 45.22B, +2.4% y/y, EST 45.05B
🔸 PRASM $13.82, +3.3% y/y
🔸 Revenue passenger miles 36.74B, +3.1% y/y, EST 36.83B
🔸 Load factor 81.2% vs. 80.7% y/y, EST 81.7%
🔸 Average passenger fare $175.97, +5.2% y/y, EST $172.52
🔸 Yield per passenger mile $17.01, +2.5% y/y
#Upgrades - Oct 09, 2024
$AFRM: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $37 (from $20)
$HD: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $460
$HON: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $235
$INTR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8.50 (from $7.50).
$LOW: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $30
$LPLA: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $285 (from $235)
$LUV: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $32 (from $24)
$MSCI: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $680
$RJF: JMP Securities Upgrades to Market Outperform from Market Perform - PT $146
$SAIA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
$VLO: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $165 (from $172)
$VNET: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $5.20