Notes

MIZUHO: POSSIBLE CHINA TARIFF RELIEF FOR SOME U.S. SEMIS Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh notes unconfirmed reports that China may ease the 125% tariff on some U.S. semiconductors (under code 8542), excluding those for storage use. Exemptions might include ICs, but most U.S.-made semis may still face the full tariff. No official statement yet. Analog semis ( $ON, $ALGM, $MCHP, $TXN), handset RF ( $SWKS, $QRVO), and possibly PC CPUs ( $INTC) are seeing strength on hopes of easing tensions. More clarity could come from Intel’s earnings today.
$ON $ALGM $MCHP $TXN
+15.24%
$SWKS $QRVO $INTC
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY: CONSUMER 🔸 BRP ( $DOOO) & Polaris ( $PII) cut to Sell by Citi due to weakening markets, tariff risks. 🔸 Five Below ( $FIVE) beats Q4 EPS ($3.48 vs. $3.37), guides Q1 & FY ahead of estimates but below EPS consensus. 🔸 Shoe Carnival ( $SCVL) beats Q4 EPS, misses revenue; guides FY25 below expectations. 🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) recalls 46K Cybertrucks over panel detachment risk. ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS 🔸 U.S. may extend Chevron's ( $CVX) Venezuela license, penalize others (WSJ). 🔸 QXO buying Beacon Roofing ( $BECN) for $11B cash. 🔸 Worthington Steel ( $WS) misses Q3; margins & EBIT sharply down. FINANCIALS 🔸 FactSet ( $FDS) beats Q2; raises FY revenue outlook. 🔸 ProAssurance ( $PRA) bought by Doctors Company for $1.3B (60% premium). 🔸 Raymond James ( $RJF) AUM down 0.7% m/m to $1.58T. HEALTHCARE 🔸 Capricor ( $CAPR) beats Q4 estimates; cash runway into 2027. 🔸 Jasper ( $JSPR) & MediWound (MDWD) file $300M & $125M shelf offerings. 🔸 scPharmaceuticals ( $SCPH) beats Q4 estimates. TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM 🔸 Aeva ( $AEVA) beats Q4, raises FY25 guidance; progressing with Daimler Truck. 🔸 Microchip ( $MCHP) launches $1.35B offering. 🔸 PDD ( $PDD) misses Q4 revenue estimates on weak China demand. 🔸 SoftBank ( $SFTBY) buys Ampere Computing for $6.5B; Oracle & Carlyle exit.
$DOOO $PII $FIVE $SCVL $TSLA
-16.31%
$CVX
+6.59%
$BECN $WS
-5.38%
$FDS $PRA $RJF $CAPR $JSPR $SCPH $AEVA $MCHP $PDD $SFTBY
MORNING BID Amazon ( $AMZN): 🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.86 (Est. $1.49) 🔸 Operating Income: $21.2B (Est. $19.145B) 🔸 Sales: $187.8B (Est. $187.299B) Q1 Guidance: 🔸 Sales $151-155B (Est. $158.45B) 🔸 Operating Income $14-18B (Est. $18.347B) 🔸 AWS Sales: $107.6B Tesla ( $TSLA): 🔸 China EV Sales in Jan: 63,238 units (-11.5% YoY, -32.6% MoM) 🔸 BYD Sales: 296,446 units (+47.5% YoY, -41.8% MoM) Boyd Gaming ( $BYD): 🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.96 (Est. $1.79) 🔸 Revenue: $1.04B (Est. $1B) 🔸 Strong growth in Online segment Elf Beauty ( $ELF): 🔸 Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76) 🔸 Revenue: $355.3M (Est. $330.39M) 🔸 FY25 Guidance: 🔸 EPS $3.27-$3.32 (from $3.47-$3.53) 🔸 Sales $1.3B-$1.31B (from $1.315B-$1.335B) Expedia ( $EXPE): 🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $2.39 (Est. $2.04) 🔸 Adjusted EBITDA: $643M (Est. $570.9M) 🔸 Revenue: $3.184B (Est. $3.07B) 🔸 Gross Bookings: $24.422B 🔸 Dividend reinstated Mohawk Industries ( $MHK): 🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.95 (Est. $1.85) 🔸 Revenue: $2.64B (Est. $2.54B) 🔸 Global Ceramic Sales: +1.5% reported, Flooring ROW Sales: -2.1% reported 🔸 Hurricane impact: ~$10M Nikola ( $NKLA): 🔸 Shares decline on reports of potential sale, restructuring, or bankruptcy Skechers ( $SKX): 🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.75) 🔸 Sales: $2.212B (Est. $2.22B) 🔸 Q1 Guidance: Sales $2.4-2.43B (Est. $2.486B), EPS $1.10-1.15 (Est. $1.55) Bill Holdings ( $BILL): 🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.47) 🔸 Revenue: $362.6M (+14% YoY, Est. $359.99M) 🔸 Q3 Guidance: EPS $0.35-$0.38 (Est. $0.34) 🔸 Revenue $352.5M-$357.5M (Est. $360.37M) Cloudflare ( $NET): 🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.19 (Est. $0.18) 🔸 Revenue: $459.9M (Est. $452.12M) 🔸 Added 55 customers spending >$1M/year in 2024 🔸 FY25 Guidance: Adj EPS $0.79-$0.80 (Est. $0.85), Revenue $2.09B-$2.094B (Est. $2.1B) GoPro ( $GPRO): 🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: -$0.09 (Est. -$0.12) 🔸 Revenue: $200.88M (Est. $196.5M) 🔸 Q1 Guidance: EPS loss -$0.13 to -$0.03 (Est. -$0.08) 🔸 Revenue $115M-$135M (Est. $136.25M) 🔸 Gross Margin ~35% Fortinet ( $FTNT): 🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.61) 🔸 Revenue: $1.66B (Est. $1.6B), Billings: $2B 🔸 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 39% (+720 bps YoY) 🔸 FY25 Guidance: EPS $2.41-$2.47 (Est. $2.42), Revenue $6.65B-$6.85B (Est. $6.63B) Lumentum Holdings ( $LITE): 🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.42 (Est. $0.36) 🔸 Revenue: $402.2M (Est. $389.76M), Adj Gross Margin: 32.3%, Adj Op Margin: 7.9% 🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $410M-$425M (Est. $411.84M), Adj EPS $0.47-$0.53 (Est. $0.42) Microchip Technology ( $MCHP): 🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.28) 🔸 Revenue: $1.026B (Est. $1.05B) 🔸 Q4 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $0.05-$0.15 (Est. $0.27), Revenue $920M-$1.0B (Est. $1.05B) 🔸 FY25 Capex: ~$135M Monolithic Power Systems ( $MPWR): 🔸 Q4 EPS: $4.09 (Est. $3.98) 🔸 Revenue: $621.67M (Est. $608.09M) 🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $610M-$630M (Est. $584.38M), Gross Margin 55.4%-56% 🔸 Dividend increased Netflix ( $NFLX): 🔸 Considering bid for Formula One’s U.S. TV rights Onto Innovation ( $ONTO): 🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.51 (Est. $1.41) 🔸 Revenue: $263.939M (Est. $260.5M), Gross Margin: 50% 🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $260M-$274M (Est. $267.4M), Adj EPS $1.40-$1.54 (Est. $1.49) Pinterest ( $PINS): 🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.65) 🔸 Adj EBITDA: $470.943M (Est. $444.6M), Revenue: $1.154B (Est. $1.139B) 🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $837M-$852M (Est. $832.78M), Adj EBITDA $155M-$170M (Est. $140.75M) Qualys Inc. ( $QLYS): 🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.60 (Est. $1.37) 🔸 Revenue: $159.2M (Est. $156.27M) 🔸 FY25 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $5.50-$5.90 (Est. $6.09), Revenue $645M-$657M (Est. $651.13M) SS&C Technologies ( $SSNC): 🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.58 (Est. $1.32) 🔸 Adj Op Income: $581.9M (Est. $569.2M), Adj Revenue: $1.5361B (Est. $1.483B) 🔸 FY Guidance: Adj Revenue $6.085B-$6.245B (Est. $6.159B), Adj EPS $5.64-$5.96 (Est. $5.75) Synaptics ( $SYNA): 🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.92 (Est. $0.86) 🔸 Revenue: $267.2M (Est. $265.6M), Gross Margin: 53.6% 🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $250M-$280M (Est. $253.27M), Adj EPS $0.65-$1.05 (Est. $0.72) Take-Two Interactive ( $TTWO): 🔸 Q3 EPS: -$0.71 🔸 Adj EBITDA: $88.8M, Revenue: $1.36B (Est. $1.39B) 🔸 Q4 Guidance: Revenue $1.52B-$1.62B (Est. $1.538B), Adj EBITDA $223M-$277M (Est. $327.92M) ViaSat ( $VSAT): 🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.11 (Est. $0.05) 🔸 Revenue: $1.12B (Est. $1.13B) 🔸 On track for FY guidance; FY26 expects YoY revenue and Adj EBITDA growth, Capex ~$1.3B
$AMZN $TSLA
-16.31%
$BYD
-27.44%
$ELF
+1.33%
$EXPE $MHK $NKLA $SKX
+5.59%
$BILL
-18.26%
$NET
-21.88%
$GPRO $FTNT $LITE $MCHP $MPWR $NFLX $ONTO $PINS
+0.61%
$QLYS $SSNC $SYNA $TTWO $VSAT
MORNING RECAP Tesla ( $TSLA): China-made EV sales dropped 4.3% y/y to 78,856 in November. Month-over-month increase of 15.5% for Model 3 and Model Y deliveries. Kroger ( $KR): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, target raised to $73 from $54. Downgraded by BMO Capital, target unchanged at $60. Live Nation Entertainment ( $LYV): Launched $1B in convertible senior notes due 2030. Axon (AXON): Upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley; target raised to $700 from $500. Crane Company (CR): Agreed to sell engineered materials segment for $227M to KPS Capital Partners, LP. Forecasts Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations at $1.10-$1.25. Donaldson (DCI): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.83, slightly above estimate of $0.82; Q1 revenue $900.1M vs. $892.43M expected. Maintains FY25 EPS guidance at $3.56-$3.72; expects revenue growth of 2%-6%. FedEx ( $FDX): Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; target reduced to $316 from $337. General Motors ( $GM): Non-binding agreement to sell stake in Ultium Cells LLC plant in Lansing to LG Energy Solutions. Honeywell ( $HON): Signed agreement with Bombardier for next-gen aviation tech; updated 2024 outlook. Joby Aviation Inc ( $JOBY): CFO Matthew Field to resign effective December 13, 2024. Rayonier ( $RYN): Authorized $300M share repurchase; announced special dividend of $1.80 per share. United States Steel ( $X): Shares fell after Trump's comments on reviving U.S. Steel and opposing Nippon Steel's acquisition. Aflac ( $AFL): Quarterly dividend increased by 16% to $0.58 per share. CleanSpark Inc. ( $CLSK): FY revenue at $378.9M, below estimates of $397.32M. Adjusted EBITDA at $245.8M, significantly above estimates of $141.44M. Regional Management Corp ( $RM): Announced a $30M stock repurchase program. State Street ( $STT): Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette; target price raised to $120. PTC Therapeutics ( $PTCT): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital; target price increased to $63 from $39, citing transformative deal with Novartis. TransMedics ( $TMDX): Narrowed FY24 revenue guidance to $428M-$432M from $425M-$445M. Announced new CFO, Gerardo Hernandez, replacing Stephen Gordon. Vaxart ( $VXRT): Completed enrollment for sentinel cohort in phase 2B study of its COVID-19 oral vaccine candidate. Microchip Technology ( $MCHP): Shares fell after lowering December 2024 revenue guidance to about $1.025B. Announced closure of Tempe wafer fabrication facility (Fab 2). Microsoft ( $MSFT): Facing a £1 billion dispute in the U.K. over cloud software licensing practices. AT&T ( $T): Authorized $10B in share repurchases. Raised FY adjusted EPS guidance to $2.20-$2.25. Maintained free cash flow and capital expenditure forecasts. Credo Technology ( $CRDO): Q2 revenue $72.0M, above estimates; EPS $0.07 vs. $0.05 expected. Forecasts Q3 gross margin between 60.6%-62.6%; revenue guidance $115M-$125M. Bill Holdings ( $BILL): Offering $1.0B in convertible senior notes due 2030. Ingram Micro ( $INGM): To reduce workforce by 850 associates. IonQ ( $IONQ): Launched IonQ Quantum OS and IonQ Hybrid Services suite to enhance quantum computing utility. Seagate Technologies ( $STX): Expects lower production output for fiscal Q3 2025, impacting revenue by up to $200M. Zscaler ( $ZS): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.77, above $0.63 estimate; revenue $627.955M vs. $606.19M expected. Provided Q2 and FY revenue and EPS guidance, both exceeding consensus estimates.
$TSLA
-16.31%
$KR $LYV $FDX
-6.21%
$GM
+24.49%
$HON $JOBY $RYN $X
+1.58%
$AFL $CLSK $RM $STT $PTCT $TMDX $VXRT $MCHP $MSFT
-12.08%
$T
-2.78%
$CRDO $BILL
-18.26%
$INGM $IONQ $STX
+0.05%
$ZS
MORNING RECAP • $LOW Q3: EPS $2.89 (beat consensus $2.81), sales $20.2B (beat consensus $19.92B); Q3 comp sales -1.1% due to weak DIY demand, offset by storm sales and growth in Pro and online. Revised full-year outlook: sales $83B-$83.5B, EPS $11.80-$11.90. • $ADM: Q3 profit fell due to weak North American crush margins; Nutrition segment expects better Q4 but not as high as Q3 2024. • $CTRN: Appointed Ken Seipel as CEO; Q3 sales $179.1M, comp sales up 5.7%. • $WEN: Ken Cook appointed as CFO, effective December 2, 2024. • $XPEV: Q3 revenue $1.39B, above estimates; EPS loss of $1.90, worse than expected $1.71 loss. Q4 revenue forecast at $2.09B-$2.21B; launched P7+ sedan. • $ACM increases buyback to $1B; Q4 EPS $1.27, revenue $4.11B, slightly below consensus. FY25 EPS forecast $5.00-$5.20. • $AMCR to acquire $BERY in $8.4B stock deal at a 10% premium. • $AVAV acquiring BlueHalo in $4.1B stock deal. Oil prices dip as Johan Sverdrup field restarts post-outage. • $ERII launches $50M stock repurchase. • $NPSCY engages with $X stakeholders to push for $15B acquisition. • $SYAXF to merge with $PLL in an all-stock deal, valuing the new entity at $623M. • $SYM Q4 operating income exceeds expectations; sets Q1 revenue guidance at $495-515M. U.S. defense stocks rise following Russia's updated nuclear policy and threats. • $DOC ups 2024 FFO guidance to $1.80-$1.82, citing strong portfolio performance. • $INCY stock drops after pausing a phase 2 study due to preclinical findings. • $MDT Q2 revenue up 5.2% to $8.4B, raises FY25 EPS outlook slightly. • $OMCL issues $150M in convertible senior notes. • $SYRE plans to offer $200M in common stock and warrants. • $AMD: Darla Smith resigns as Chief Accounting Officer on November 15. • $GOOGL stock declines as DOJ plans to demand the sale of Chrome browser. • $INTC: Efforts to distribute manufacturing grants under the Chips Act are stalled, with most of the $39B yet to be disbursed. • $MSTR aims to raise $1.75B through convertible senior notes. • $MCHP: Ganesh Moorthy retires; Steve Sanghi appointed as interim CEO. • $SMCI stock rises after appointing BDO USA as auditor and seeking Nasdaq compliance extension
$LOW $ADM $CTRN $WEN
-4.35%
$XPEV $ACM
+1.79%
$AMCR $BERY $AVAV $ERII $NPSCY $X
+1.58%
$SYAXF $PLL $SYM $DOC $INCY $MDT
-1.43%
$OMCL $SYRE $AMD $GOOGL $INTC $MSTR
-99.97%
$MCHP $SMCI
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