Notes
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
🔸 Upgrades:
Accenture ( $ACN): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird, PT $390
American Tower ( $AMT): Upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo, PT $230
Blue Owl Capital ( $OBDC): Upgraded to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
Crown Castle ( $CCI): Upgraded to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo, PT $105
DouYu ( $DOYU): ADRs upgraded to Hold at HSBC, PT $9
Flowserve ( $FLS): Upgraded to Outperform at Baird, PT $71
Generac ( $GNRC): Upgraded to Neutral at Guggenheim
Genesis Energy ( $GEL): Upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo, PT $18
Liberty Formula One ( $FWONA): Upgraded to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
https://t.co/eMBFE2Jwuf ( $MNDY): Upgraded to Buy at DA Davidson, PT $350
Netflix ( $NFLX): Upgraded to Buy at MoffettNathanson, PT $1,100
Norwegian Cruise ( $NCLH): Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan, PT $30
SL Green ( $SLG): Upgraded to Outperform at Evercore ISI, PT $73
Sprouts Farmers ( $SFM): Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT $190
🔸 Downgrades:
Campbell's ( $CPB): Downgraded to Equal-Weight at Consumer Edge, PT $40
Cion Investment ( $CION): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo, PT $10
EastGroup ( $EGP): Downgraded to Inline at Evercore ISI, PT $185
Finward ( $FNWD): Downgraded to Market Perform at Hovde Group
FS KKR Capital ( $FSK): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo, PT $19
Li Auto ( $LI): ADRs downgraded to Neutral at Macquarie, PT $27
RLX Tech ( $RLX): ADRs downgraded to Neutral at Citi, PT $2.50
Sutro Biopharma ( $STRO): Downgraded to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC ( $TPVG): Downgraded to Underweight at Wells Fargo
MORNING BID
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA):
• Q4 adj. EPS $0.89 (est. $0.84)
• revs $39.33B (est. $38.05B)
• Data center revs $35.6B (+93%)
• Auto $570M (+103%)
• Gaming $2.5B (-11%)
• Q1 revs $43B ±2% (est. $41.78B).
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Debuted Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip.
🔸 Snowflake ( $SNOW):
• Q4 EPS $0.30 (est. $0.18)
• revs $986.8M (+28%, est. $956.26M)
• Q1 product revs guidance $955M-$960M (est. $962.6M); expanded Microsoft partnership.
🔸 Salesforce ( $CRM)
• Q4 adj. EPS $2.78 (est. $2.61)
• revs $9.99B (missed est. $10.04B)
• Q1 guidance below consensus: EPS $2.53-$2.55, revs $9.71B-$9.76B.
🔸 https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI):
• Q3 EPS -$0.12 (est. -$0.25)
• revs $98.8M (+26%, est. $98.1M)
• Q4 revs guidance $103.6M-$113.6M (est. $108.6M).
🔸 Magnite ( $MGNI)
Q4 adj. EPS $0.34 (est. $0.36)
revs $194M (est. $184.3M)
FY adj. EBITDA guidance mid-teens % (est. +12.8%).
🔸 Nutanix ( $NTNX)
Q2 adj. EPS $0.56 (est. $0.47)
revs $654.7M (est. $641.86M)
Q3 revs guidance $620M-$630M (est. $594.39M).
🔸 eBay ( $EBAY)
Q4 adj. EPS $1.25 (est. $1.20)
revs $2.6B (est. $2.58B)
GMV $19.3B (+4%)
Q1 adj. EPS guidance $1.32-$1.36 (est. $1.33)
revs $2.52B-$2.56B (est. $2.59B)
GMV $18.3B-$18.6B.
🔸 Paramount ( $PARA): Q4 revs $7.98B (est. $8.1B); Paramount+ added 5.6M subs (est. 2.58M).
🔸 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): Q4 EPS $0.45 (est. $0.42), revs $879.8M (est. $869.19M); FY revs guidance $3.515B (est. $3.52B).
🔸 Synopsys ( $SNPS): Q1 EPS $3.03 (est. $2.79), revs $1.46B (est. $1.45B); FY EPS guidance $14.88-$14.96 (est. $14.89).
🔸 TaskUs ( $TASK): Q4 EPS $0.31 (est. $0.34), revs $274.2M (est. $268.8M); FY adj. EBITDA margin ~21%.
🔸 TKO Group ( $TKO): Q4 EPS $0.28 (est. $0.21), revs $642.2M (est. $604M); FY adj. EBITDA $1.35B-$1.39B (FY24: $1.25B).
🔸 Norwegian Cruise Line ( $NCLH): Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.11), revs $2.11B (in line); Q1 Net Yield expected to rise ~0.5% y/y (constant currency).
🔸 Urban Outfitters ( $URBN): Q4 adj. EPS $1.04 (est. $0.94), revs $1.64B (+10%, est. $1.61B); Retail segment sales +6.3%, driven by digital and store growth.
🔸 Agilent ( $A): Q1 adj. EPS $1.31 (est. $1.27), revs $1.68B (est. $1.67B); Q2 guidance below estimates; FY25 revs cut to $6.68B-$6.76B (est. $6.82B).
🔸 CareDx ( $CDNA): Q4 adj. EPS $0.18 (est. $0.15), revs $86.6M (est. $84.56M); FY25 revs guidance $365M-$375M (est. $370.02M); Testing services revs +37% y/y.
🔸 Catalyst Pharma ( $CPRX): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.55), revs $141.8M (+28%, est. $134.2M); FY revs guidance $545M-$565M (est. $558.1M).
🔸 Outset Medical ( $OM): Filed $100M mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Sarepta ( $SRPT): Q4 adj. EPS $1.90 (in line), revs $658.4M (est. $627.58M).
🔸 Teladoc ( $TDOC): Q4 EPS -$0.28 (est. -$0.24), revs $640.49M (est. $639.55M); FY revs and EBITDA guidance below estimates.
🔸 Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM): Q4 EPS $0.01 (est. -$0.23), revs $282.6M (est. $251.98M); FY revs guidance $997M-$1.007B (est. $1.008B).
🔸 Universal Health ( $UHS): Q4 adj. EPS $4.92 (est. $4.18), revs $4.11B (est. $4.01B); FY revs and EBITDA guidance above estimates.
#Upgrades - Dec 13, 2024
• $CAH: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $127 (from $101)
• $CCS: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $97 (from $110)
• $CIEN: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $95 (from $70)
• $CNC: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $79)
• $CRM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $440
• $GIS: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $78)
• $GLPI: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $54 (from $49)
• $NCLH: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $32 (from $28)
• $PENN: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $27 (from $19)
• $PTCT: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $67
• $PTEN: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $10
• $PYPL: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $107
• $RHI: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $90
• $SGMO: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $7
• $SRE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $98 (from $85)
• $TASK: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $21 (from $18)
• $UPBD: Stephens Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $38
• $UPST: Needham Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $100
• $VAC: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $116 (from $97)
• $VNOM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $62
#Upgrades - Dec 10, 2024
• $AAL: Bernstein Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $24 (from $14)
• $BALL: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $67
• $CIFR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8
• $CLSK: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $17 (from $10.50)
• $CXW: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $30 (from $19)
• $GM: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $54 (from $46)
• $GPMT: KBW Upgrades to Market Perform from Underperform - PT $3.25 (from $3)
• $IPG: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $34 (from $26)
• $JLL: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $325 (from $292)
• $MARA: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $23 (from $12)
• $NCLH: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $35 (from $29)
• $RSG: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $237 (from $219)
• $SLG: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $80 (from $51)
• $TRV: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $290
• $UPS: BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $150 (from $155)
• $VMEO: Piper Sandler Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $10 (from $7)
• $VSCO: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $47 (from $18)