MORNING BID 🔸 Apple ( $AAPL) plans to invest $500B in the U.S. over 4 years, boosting AI, silicon engineering, and skills development, including a new Houston facility for Apple Intelligence servers and 20,000 R&D jobs. 🔸 Disney’s ( $DIS) “Captain America: Brave New World” topped box office in week 2 with $28.2M, down from $100M debut over 4 days in week 1. 🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) is canceling U.S. datacenter leases, possibly signaling excess AI capacity, per TD Cowen; also claims a quantum computing breakthrough, but physicists doubt it, per WSJ. 🔸 Twilio ( $TWLO) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, citing strong execution for growth and margins. 🔸 Alibaba ( $BABA) plans to invest $52B in AI and cloud infrastructure over 3 years, surpassing its last decade’s spending. 🔸 Domino’s ( $DPZ) Q4: EPS $4.89 (est. $4.90), revenue $1.44B (est. $1.47B), comp store sales up 0.4% (est. 1.63%), international comps up 2.7%; dividend raised 15% to $1.74/share, gross margin steady at 39.2%. 🔸 Nike ( $NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, citing a strong recovery in the next 2 years. 🔸 Target Hospitality ( $TH) notified that the U.S. government will end its Pecos Children’s Center agreement, effective around Feb 21, 2025. 🔸 Wingstop ( $WING) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Guggenheim. 🔸 CF Industries ( $CF) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Bank America, PT $84, seen as fairly priced with balanced risk/reward after selloff. 🔸 Newmont ( $NEM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JPMorgan. 🔸 Westlake Chemical ( $WLK) Q4: EPS $0.06 (est. $1.08), sales $2.84B (est. $2.97B), operating income $66M (-9.6% y/y), EBITDA $416M (+6.7% y/y, est. $524.5M). 🔸 Berkshire Hathaway ( $BRK.B) Q4 EPS $13,695 (vs. $26,043 last year); 2024 investment gains: $3.1B after-tax in Q4, $79.6B full year; 2023: $330M Q4 loss, $3.6B full-year gain; no stock buybacks in Q4. Equitable Holdings ( $EQH) offers to buy up to 46M AllianceBernstein ($AB) units at $38.50 each, totaling $1.8B, a 7.8% premium over Feb 21 closing price. 🔸 NMI Holdings ( $NMIH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette. 🔸 BioCryst ( $BCRX): ORLADEYO trial shows positive results for kids aged 2-12 with hereditary angioedema; real-world studies confirm significant attack rate drops in patients with C1-INH deficiency and normal C1-INH. 🔸 Summit Therapeutics ($SMMT) teams up with Pfizer ($PFE) to test ivonescimab with Pfizer’s cancer therapies ( ADCs) across tumor types; Summit supplies the drug, Pfizer runs the studies.

橙子晚间解读 2.24 bybit被盗15亿实际上超过了Mt.Gox的85万枚BTC、the DAO的360万枚ETH以及Coincheck 的5.3亿美元的 $NEM 成为史上最大加密被盗案件，不过这次被盗反而更加坚定我看好2025超级牛市的到来，甚至这次盗币事件可能会助推以太坊在一个月内ATH​！​ 这个周末市场还是挺跌宕起伏的，本来周五晚上因为SEC撤销对coinbase的诉讼且无任何罚款的消息给市场带来了明确的利好，大饼也因此冲破了9w9，剑指10w，可惜还没等到成功突破呢，就传来了bybit被盗的消息，而且被盗金额可不小，达到了15亿美元，我印象里这个数字应该是历史之最的，门头沟虽然被盗了85w枚比特币，但是当时币价很低，折合美元也只有4.7亿，曾经日本第一大所coincheck 因为被盗5.3亿美元的 $nem 代币从此也一蹶不振，kucoin当时被盗了2.8亿，币安也被盗过4000万刀，就连引发以太坊唯一一次分叉的the dao 被盗事件，当时损失的360万枚以太坊价值也只有5000万美元，之后以太坊还被分叉成eth和etc，所以从金额上来看，这次的bybit就是历史最大加密盗窃案，bybit请求投票分叉也是合情合理的，当然鉴于以太坊现在的3300亿美元的市场规模这个分叉也是很难实现的，而且这次黑客得手之后其拥有的以太坊数量已经超过富达、V神成为全球持有排行榜第14名，且是现在以太坊基金会持有数量的2倍还多，以太坊作为全球第二大的去中心化网络，如果因此就重新来过，那么对以太坊品牌价值也是一次严重摧毁，所以这个分叉肯定是行不通的，除非哪天以太坊被量子计算机攻破了，99%的币都不安全，那么才会有第二次后量子技术的分叉，当然这种事儿可能​要发生在火星上了，短期没这个风险。 再说对市场的影响，很多人因为这两天行情走跌，都开始叫喊熊市来了，其实我反而更加坚定2025年的超级牛市一定会来，甚至这波ETH被盗有可能会促使以太坊在接下来一个月内走出ath行情，我的判断依据就是市场情绪其实很稳定，首先是bybit这么多钱被盗，但是市场最大的声音都是如何共渡难关，仅仅一天时间bybit就在各方支持和各种贷款的力量下把这15亿美元的窟窿给堵上了，且这期间bybit甚至没有关闭提现功能，硬抗了50亿美元的资金外流，这波操作绝对称得上奇迹了，很多大佬都是一万一万的向bybit充ETH，还有很多资金去当场买ETH来支持bybit，这也导致以太坊价格居然在今早7点价格超过了2850，这个价格甚至比2月21号晚上SEC撤诉CB时的价格还要高，要知道当时大饼可是正在冲刺10w大关呢，拿大饼对比，今早大饼的高点仅有96400，距离2月21号高点99475有3000点的跌幅，这说明整个市场并没有惧怕盗取15亿美元的朝鲜黑客，没有人把bybit当成ftx，也没有人把eth当成eos，从信心上这就不是熊市能做得到的​。 当然bybit能得到这么多人的支持，也是因为其强大的盈利能力，根据grok3的推断，bybit每年的净利润可以达到10-15亿美元，利润率20-40%，这个盈利级别在全球各个行业里都是顶级了，而且这个收益是很稳定的，只要这次公关做得好，基本上可以保证bybit不掉档，那么接下来一年时间bybit就可以把被盗的15亿给赚回来，很多小伙伴会质疑现在是牛市，如果到了熊市bybit还能保持稳定收入吗，这点是肯定的，bybit就是做合约起家的，做社区的都知道bybit的返佣，这个从2019年就已经非常火了， 所以熊市bybit的收益也不会降，不过也不是所有能稳定盈利的CEX在被盗这么多钱后都能全身而退，也得看行情，这也是我前面说的为啥bybit事件不是牛市的终点，因为熊市行情下，强如ftx也得倒闭，大趋势向下时，个体再强也无济于事，而牛市里只要不出现系统性的风险，那么一切都有的救，没啥事是大饼再翻一倍不能解决的，所以bybit无碍，​接下来的超级牛市也无碍。

#Upgrades - Nov 19, 2024 • $ACRS: BTIG Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $8 • $ACRS: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $7 (from $2) • $ACRS: Leerink Partners Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $7 (from $2) • $AWK: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $155 (from $151) • $BNTX: Evercore ISI Upgrades to Outperform from In Line - PT $125 (from $110) • $FIX: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $525 (from $396) • $NEM: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral • $QS: HSBC Upgrades to Hold from Reduce - PT $5.30 (from $4.70).