Notes
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
MORNING BID
🔸 OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA ( $NVDA) by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM)
🔸 ChipMOS Technologies ( $IMOS): Expects 6.3% revenue growth for 2024, despite a 5.4% YoY decline in Dec 2024 and 5.7% YoY decline in Q4 2024. Plans to buy back shares up to T$17.39B.
🔸 Mobileye ( $MBLY): Upgraded to Neutral by Bank of America, citing limited downside risk and bottoming sentiment.
🔸 Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): Q1 revenue expected at the lower end of guidance due to a $161M (NT$5.3B, net of insurance) impact from a late January earthquake in southern Taiwan.
🔸 Edgewell Personal Care ( $EPC): Q1 adj. EPS $0.07 (est. $0.12); Q1 revs $478.4M (est. $480.16M). FY25 outlook: adj. EPS at lower end of $3.15-$3.35 (est. $3.18), adj. EBITDA at lower end of $356M-$368M, capex 2.5%-3% of revenue.
🔸 Rivian ( $RIVN): Now selling delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the US, over a year after ending exclusivity with Amazon ( $AMZN).
🔸 Sun Country Airlines ( $SNCY): Announces secondary offering of 6.3M shares and $10M share repurchase from underwriters.
🔸 Illumina ( $ILMN): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Merck ( $MRK): Downgraded to Hold from Buy by TD Cowen, price target cut to $100 from $121.
🔸 Pliant Therapeutics ( $PLRX): Shares fall as it pauses enrollment and dosing in the ongoing Beacon-IPF Phase 2b trial of bexotegrast for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
🔸 BP Plc ( $BP): Shares rise after Elliott Management takes a stake, expected to push for strategy and board changes.
🔸 ConocoPhillips ( $COP): Downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy by Raymond James.
🔸 Spirit AeroSystems ( $SPR): Q4 2024 net revenues $1.66B (down from $1.81B YoY, above est. $1.53B); reported $401M in net forward loss charges.
🔸 US Metals Stocks: Shares of Cleveland Cliffs ( $CLF), Nucor ( $NUE), Alcoa ( $AA), and others rise after Trump announces 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation.
MORNING RECAP
🔸 EVgo Inc ( $EVGO) launches secondary offering of 23 million Class A shares.
🔸 Mama's Creations ( $MAMA) Q3: EPS $0.01 (est. $0.04), adj. EBITDA $1.7M (est. $3.229M), revenue $31.5M (est. $30.05M).
🔸 McCormick ( $MKC) reportedly negotiating to acquire Sauer brands for $1 billion.
🔸 RCI Hospitality ( $RICK) Q4: adj. EPS $1.63 (est. $0.37), adj. EBITDA $17.9M (est. $13.92M), revenue $73.2M (est. $72.98M); forecasts FY29 revenue at $400M, FCF at $75M with 7.5M shares.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) upgraded to Overweight by Mizuho, target price raised to $515.
🔸 Online sports betting: New Jersey's November handle exceeds $1.2B, with $119M in revenue, up 24.1% from last year.
🔸 Compass Minerals ( $CMP) Q4: adj. EPS loss (-$0.77) vs. est. (-$0.44), revenue $208.8M vs. est. $213.5M; adj. EBITDA $15.6M.
🔸 Expects 2025 salt sales volumes up 9% and 2024 Plant Nutrition volumes up 25% to 273K tons.
🔸 Kosmos Energy ( $KOS) abandons acquisition talks with Tullow Oil.
🔸 Joby Aviation ( $JOBY) completes major FAA certification tests for aerostructures.
🔸 Nucor Corp. ( $NUE) lowers Q4 EPS guidance to $0.55-$0.65, below consensus of $0.87.
🔸 Owens Corning ( $OC) upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo.
🔸 Biden administration offers PG&E ( $PCG) a $15B loan for climate and grid improvement projects.
🔸 Affirm Holdings ( $AFRM) issues $750M in Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, plans to repurchase up to $300M in Class A stock.
🔸 Marqeta ( $MQ) downgraded to Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Jazz Pharmaceuticals ( $JAZZ) CEO Bruce Cozadd to retire by end of 2025.
🔸 Rockwell Medical ( $RMTI) secures multi-year deal with top dialysis provider, anticipating $10M+ in 2025 sales, with annual price increases and a term up to five years.
🔸 eBay Inc ( $EBAY) board approved an additional $3B for stock repurchases on Dec 12.
🔸 Mitek Systems ( $MITK) Q4: adj. EPS $0.33 (est. $0.17), adj. EBITDA $15.4M (est. $8.314M), revenue $43.222M (est. $41.31M); FY25 guidance: revenue $170-180M (est. $179.52M), adj. EBITDA margin 24-28%.
🔸#Upgrades - Sep 09, 2024
$CLS: Stifel Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $58
$EXLS: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $42 (from $35)
$FULC: BofA Securities Upgrades to Neutral from Underperform - PT $10 (from $5)
$HZO: Citi Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $44 (from $40)
$IMUX: Leerink Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $5
$JBLU: BofA Securities Upgrades to Neutral from Underperform - PT $6 (from $3)
$JHG: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $37 (from $33)
$KYMR: Leerink Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $60
$LGIH: Wedbush Upgrades to Neutral from Underperform - PT $125 (from $97)
$NUE: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $174 (from $170)
$STLD: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $131 (from $120)
$TCBI: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $77 (from $51)
$TVTX: Guggenheim Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $25
$X: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $42 (from $40)