Notes
MORNING BID
🔸 $NET: Upgraded to Buy by Citigroup, target price to $145 from $95, expecting 27%-30% annual revenue growth.
🔸 Citigroup: Positive 90-day watchlist for $OKTA, negative for $CRWD.
🔸 $WDC: Q2 revenue expected at $4.30B (below consensus $4.24B, EPS at $1.75-$2.05; CFO Jabre resigning.
🔸 $CRM: Upgraded to Buy from Hold by TD Cowen.
🔸 TikTok: Trump's advisor supports keeping app if deal viable; Schumer urges Biden to extend shutdown deadline by 90 days.
🔸 $OZK: Q4 EPS $1.56 vs. est. $1.44; NII $379-398M; book value up 11.5% to $47.30/share.
🔸 $CFG: Q4 EPS $0.85 vs. est. $0.83; revenue $1.99B; NIM 2.87%; provisions $162M.
🔸 $INDB: Q4 adj. EPS $1.21 vs. est. $1.16; NIM 3.33%; Q3 pre-tax profit $62.93M.
🔸 $RC: Announces $150M share buyback.
🔸 $RF: Q4 EPS $0.56 vs. est. $0.55; revenue $1.845B; Q1 NII to decline; NIM 3.55%; provisions $120M.
🔸 $WULF: Files for mixed shelf offering, size undisclosed.
🔸 $TFC: Q4 EPS $0.91 vs. est. $0.88; revenue $5.11B; tangible book value $30.01/share; CET1 ratio 11.5%; provisions $471M; Q1 revenue down 2% Q/Q; FY revenue up 3-3.5%.
🔸 $JBHT: Q4 EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.61; revenue down 5% to $3.15B, due to declines in various segments including Intermodal (down 2%).
🔸 $DD and $AXTA: Upgraded to Outperform by Wolfe Research.
🔸 $OTIS: Authorizes $2B share repurchase program.
🔸 Shield AI: In talks to raise significant funding from $PLTR and $LMT, per The Information.
🔸 $CROX: Downgraded to Hold from Buy by Williams Trading due to weakening trends.
🔸 $RIVN: Finalizes $6.6B loan agreement with U.S. DOE for Georgia manufacturing.
Fisker: U.S. auto safety probe closed on 6,971 Ocean SUVs, no further investigation expected post-bankruptcy.
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
Lamb Weston ( $LW): Shares dropped after naming Michael Smith as CEO on Jan 3, following activist investor Jana Partners' push for board changes or a sale. LW cut FY sales forecast to $6.35B-$6.45B from $6.6B-$6.8B after Q2 sales fell 8% to $1.6B; approved $250M buyback.
Lennar Corp. ( $LEN): Q4 revenue down 9.3% to $9.95B, below estimates. New orders dropped 2.7% to 16,895, backlog down 22%. Forecasts Q1 new orders at 17,500-18,000, deliveries at 17,000-17,500.
MillerKnoll Inc. ( $MLKN): Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.56 est., sales up 2.2% to $970.4M. Gross margin fell to 38.8%. Guides Q3 sales $903M-$943M, EPS $0.41-$0.47.
Steelcase ( $SCS): Q3 EPS $0.30 vs. $0.22 est., sales up 2.2% to $794.9M. Q4 guidance EPS $0.20-$0.24, revenue $770M-$795M.
Stanley Black & Decker ( $SWK): Upgraded to Outperform by Mizuho, price target $110, added to top picks.
Tri-Pointe Homes ( $TPH): Announced $250M stock buyback program.
Swiss Watch Exports: November exports down 3.8% to CHF 2.41B, with U.S. as the only top market increasing by 4.7%.
Palantir Technologies ( $PLTR): Extended U.S. Army contract worth up to $618.9M to enhance data operations, continuing data and AI support since 2018.
Block ( $SQ): Upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer with a $115 target, citing growth in Square's Gross Payment Volume due to product and sales investments.
Raymond James ( $RJF): November client assets under administration at $1.60T (+3.6% m/m), financial assets under management at $251.7B (+4.4% m/m).
Synchrony ( $SYF): Upgraded to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
Mesoblast ( $MESO): Shares up after FDA approval of Ryoncil for treating GVHD in pediatric patients not responding to steroids.
Prothena ( $PRTA): Phase IIb PADOVA study by Roche on prasinezumab for early Parkinson's missed its primary endpoint after 18 months.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( $VRTX): Phase 2 study of suzetrigine in LSR met primary endpoint with significant pain reduction; plans for Phase 3 advancement.
Micron Technology ( $MU): Q1 adj EPS $1.79 vs. $1.76 est., revenue up 84% to $8.71B. Shares fell after hours due to Q2 forecast below expectations: revenue $7.7B-$8.1B vs. $8.99B est., gross margin 37.5%-39.5% vs. 41.3% est., EPS $1.33-$1.53 vs. $1.92 est. FY25 capex about $14B. Memory stocks STX, WDC also dropped.
Accenture ( $ACN): Q1 EPS $3.59 vs. $3.42 est., revenue up 9% to $17.69B vs. $17.15B est. Operating margin at 16.7%. Lowered FY EPS guidance to $12.43-$12.79 from $12.55-$12.91.
Keybanc: Upgraded Okta ( $OKTA) and Fortinet ( $FTNT) to Overweight, downgraded https://t.co/n5rFzz3Pbq (AI) to Underweight.
U.S. Commerce Department: Awarded SK Hynix up to $458M for an advanced chip plant and R&D facility in Indiana for AI.
#Upgrades - Dec 05, 2024
• $BRKR: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $60
• $COP: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $123 (from $120)
• $DEO: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $141 (from $129)
• $EXAS: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $72 (from $48)
• $GTES: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $25 (from $21)
• $HPE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $28 (from $23)
• $ITW: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $270 (from $230)
• $MBLY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
• $MGA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
• $OKTA: Bernstein Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $129 (from $123)
• $ROK: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $290 (from $255)
• $WTW: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform - PT $400 (from $365)
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
RECAP
• $HD: Q3 EPS $3.78 vs. $3.65 est., revenue up 6.6% to $40.22B. Comp sales down 1.3%, better than expected. Raised FY24 sales forecast to 4% growth.
• $BABA: Strong sales growth during Singles' Day, 45 brands hit over 1 billion yuan GMV.
• $LYV: Q3 operating income $909.8M vs. $856.6M est., revenue down 6.2% to $7.65B. Ticket sales for 2024 up 3%.
• $ONON: Q3 EPS CHF 0.16, below est. CHF 0.20. Sales CHF 635.8M, up from expected CHF 617.3M. Increased FY sales forecast.
• $VIK: Upgraded by Morgan Stanley due to robust cruise demand.
• $APAM: AUM as of October 31, 2024, was $162.8B, with $78.8B in Artisan Funds and $84.0B in other accounts.
• $AGO: Q3 EPS $2.42 vs. $1.42 est., revenue down 33% to $269M, premiums up 53% to $61M.
• $CNS: AUM decreased to $89.7B by October 31, 2024, from $91.8B, due to market depreciation and distributions.
• $IVZ: AUM dropped to $1.772T, down 1.3%, with $2B in net inflows but losses from market returns.
• $JRVR: Q3 premiums grew 6%, with a high combined ratio of 136.1% but a better current year ratio at 92.6%.
• $RMR: Q4 EPS $0.34 below $0.40 est., EBITDA slightly above estimate at $21.8M.
• $HOOD: October showed 24.4M funded customers, $159.7B in assets, with significant growth in deposits.
• $VCTR: Reported AUM of $172.3B, total client assets of $176.5B for October 31, 2024.
• $ASRT: Q3 EPS $0.03 vs. ($0.05) est., EBITDA $5.3M vs. $4.7M est., revenue $29.2M vs. $28.87M est.
• $AZN: Upgraded full-year guidance due to strong Q3, expects high teens growth for earnings and revenue in 2024.
• $BAYRY: Stock dropped after forecasting lower earnings next year due to weak ag markets.
• $NGNE: Shares fell despite positive trial data for Rett Syndrome drug, due to an adverse event.
• $NVRO: Q3 EPS ($0.41) vs. ($0.81) est., improved EBITDA, raised FY revenue guidance.
• $STXS: Q3 EPS ($0.08) vs. ($0.05) est., revenue beat expectations, kept flat year-over-year revenue guidance.
IAC: Considering spinning off Angi, which IAC controls 85% of, valued at $1.25B, after exceeding Q3 revenue forecasts due to Dotdash Meredith.
• $IVAC: Q3 EPS loss was ($0.08) vs. ($0.15) est., revenue significantly beat estimates at $28.5M.
• $OKTA: Downgraded to hold by Deutsche Bank.
• $SE: Q3 EPS $0.24 missed estimates by $0.02, but revenue hit $4.3B, beating estimates.
• $ZETA: Q3 EBITDA $53.6M vs. $49.93M est., revenue $268M vs. $252.5M est., raised Q4 guidance.
#Downgrades - Nov 12, 2024
• $ABG: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $ABNB: PhillipCapital Downgrades to Reduce from Neutral - PT $120
• $AESI: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $19 (from $23)
• $ALNY: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Underperform from Peerperform
• $ALTM: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $5.85
• $AVAV: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $240
• $CXM: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $6 (from $8)
• $FIVN: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $40 (from $55)
• $FMBH: DA Davidson Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $47 (from $44)
• $HMN: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $44 (from $39)
• $HPP: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5 (from $5.50)
• $KNX: Citi Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $56
• $OKTA: Deutsche Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $85 (from $115)
• $PHUN: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $6 (from $9)
• $ROST: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $152 (from $179)
• $RXO: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $33
• $SNDR: Citi Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $30 (from $32)
• $TCBK: DA Davidson Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $53 (from $50)