Notes
Everything you need to know on The Rundown podcast by @public
TOP MARKET HEADLINES
* $NFLX adds a record 19M subscribers
* $ORCL, AI stocks rally on Stargate news
* $PG tops sales estimate for first time in over a year
https://t.co/2dDEwMWkXa
$PG RESULTS: Q2
🔸 Organic revenue +3%, EST +2.35%
🔸 Beauty organic sales +2%, EST -0.38%
🔸 Grooming organic sales +2%, EST +2.48%
🔸 Health Care organic sales +3%, EST +6.04%
🔸 Fabric & Home Care organic sales +3%, EST +3.06%
🔸 Baby, Feminine & Family Care organic sales +4%, EST +0.94%
🔸 Core EPS $1.88 vs. $1.84 y/y, EST $1.86
🔸 Net sales $21.88B, +2.1% y/y, EST $21.55B
🔸 Beauty revenue $3.85B, EST $3.75B
🔸 Grooming revenue $1.75B, EST $1.73B
🔸 Healthcare revenue $3.25B, EST $3.31B
🔸 Fabric & Home Care revenue $7.58B, EST $7.51B
🔸 Baby, Feminine & Family Care revenue $5.30B, EST $5.11B
🔸 Foreign Currency Impact in sales 0%, EST -1.53%
🔸 Price impact 0%, EST 0.82%
🔸 Organic volume growth +2%, EST +0.91%
🔸 Gross margin 52.4%, EST 52.5%
🔸 ADJ free cash flow $3.90B, EST $4.1B
F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Still sees organic revenue +3% to +5%, EST +2.99%
🔸 Still sees core EPS growth +5% to +7%
🔸 Still sees core EPS $6.91 to $7.05, EST $6.91
MORNING RECAP
• $ASO announces a $700M share buyback.
• $AEO Q3 EPS $0.48 vs. $0.46 est., rev down -0.9% to $1.29B; cuts annual sales growth forecast to 3%, expects Q4 comp sales +1%, total rev -4%.
• $CHPT Q3 loss (-$0.18) vs. est. (-$0.09), rev -10% to $99.6M; Q4 rev guidance $95M-$105M. Networked charging systems down -29%, subscription rev up +19%.
• $COST November comp sales +3.1%, net sales +5.6% to $21.87B; Q1 sales +7.5% to $60.99B.
• $FIVE Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. $0.17 est., sales +15% to $843.7M; Q4 sales guide $1.35B-$1.38B, comp sales expected to decline.
• $PVH Q3 adj EPS $3.03 vs. $2.59 est., rev $2.26B vs. $2.22B; Q4 rev expected -7% to -6%, EPS $3.05-$3.20.
• $PG now sources Gillette razor steel from India to mitigate potential Trump tariffs.
• $AVAV Q2 rev $188.5M vs. $182.9M est.; adj EBITDA $25.9M vs. $31.7M est.; maintains FY25 EPS $3.18-$3.49, revenue $790M-$820M.
• $APD: Mantle Ridge now nominates only four for the board, down from nine.
• $CULP Q2 adj op income ($2.6M) vs. ($3.589M) est., sales $55.7M vs. $58M est.; expects flat to slightly down Q3 sales, positive EBITDA in 2H, profitable by Q4.
• $GEF Q4 EPS $1.08 vs. $1.10 est.; rev up 8.3% to $1.42B, adj EBITDA down 0.8% to $197.6M; FY25 adj EBITDA expected at $675M low-end.
• $LUV boosts Q4 revenue per seat mile forecast to 5.5%-7% from 3.5%-5.5%, due to pricing and travel demand.
• $FI stock falls as CEO Frank Bisignano is nominated by Trump to lead the SSA.
• $FOUR downgraded to Hold from Buy after CEO Jared Isaacman is chosen by Trump to head NASA.
• $HOOD plans Asia expansion, setting up in Singapore.
NYPD seeks man who killed UnitedHealth $UNH executive Brian Thompson outside a Manhattan hotel, suspect fled into Central Park.
TSM discussing with $NVDA to manufacture AI chips in Arizona.
• $AMAT downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley due to memory market concerns.
• $HPE upgraded to Overweight, target price raised post-Juniper acquisition.
• $NCNO Q3 adj EPS $0.21 vs $0.16 est., Q4 rev guidance below estimates.
• $OOMA Q3 EPS $0.17 vs $0.16 est., raised yearly outlook.
• $S Q3 EPS loss ($0.25) vs $0.01 est., slightly beat on revenue for Q4 and year.
• $SNPS Q4 adj EPS $3.40 vs $3.30 est., Q1 guidance below expectations.
• $VRNT Q3 EPS $0.54 vs $0.43 est., strong SaaS growth, FY25 revenue guidance up.
• $DIS increases dividend to $1.00 per share.
• $SMTC launches $400M stock offering.
#Upgrades - Nov 25, 2024
• $ESTC: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $135
• $HOOD: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $55 (from $24)
• $JLL: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $353
• $KLC: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $30
• $PG: DA Davidson Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $209 (from $160)
• $SBH: TD Cowen Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $16 (from $14)
• $SNCR: Roth/MKM Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $13 (from $11)
• $SNOW: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $190
• $TTD: New Street Research Upgrades to Neutral from Reduce
• $USB: Citi Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $65 (from $49)
• $WRB: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $69
$PG RESULTS: Q1
🔸 Core EPS $1.93 vs. $1.83 y/y, EST $1.90
🔸 Net sales $21.74B, -0.6% y/y, EST $21.96B
🔸 Beauty revenue $3.89B, EST $4.11B
🔸 Grooming revenue $1.72B, EST $1.75B
🔸 Healthcare revenue $3.15B, EST $3.14B
🔸 Fabric & Home Care revenue $7.71B, EST $7.7B
🔸 Baby, Feminine & Family Care revenue $5.10B, EST $5.14B
🔸 Foreign Currency Impact in sales -1%, EST -1.63%
🔸 Price impact 1%, EST 0.81%
🔸 Organic volume growth +1%, EST +0.86%
🔸 Organic revenue +2%, EST +2.06%
🔸 Beauty organic sales -2%, EST +2.75%
🔸 Grooming organic sales +3%, EST +4.63%
🔸 Health Care organic sales +4%, EST +3.5%
🔸 Fabric & Home Care organic sales +3%, EST +1.99%
🔸 Baby, Feminine & Family Care organic sales 0%, EST +1.05%
🔸 Gross margin 52.1%, EST 52.4%,
🔸 ADJ free cash flow $3.87B, EST $4.31B
2025 F/Y GUIDANCE
🔸 Still sees organic revenue +3% to +5%, EST +3.43%
🔸 Still sees core EPS growth +5% to +7%
🔸 Still sees core EPS $6.91 to $7.05, EST $6.95