Notes
MORNING BID
Amazon ( $AMZN):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.86 (Est. $1.49)
🔸 Operating Income: $21.2B (Est. $19.145B)
🔸 Sales: $187.8B (Est. $187.299B)
Q1 Guidance:
🔸 Sales $151-155B (Est. $158.45B)
🔸 Operating Income $14-18B (Est. $18.347B)
🔸 AWS Sales: $107.6B
Tesla ( $TSLA):
🔸 China EV Sales in Jan: 63,238 units (-11.5% YoY, -32.6% MoM)
🔸 BYD Sales: 296,446 units (+47.5% YoY, -41.8% MoM)
Boyd Gaming ( $BYD):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.96 (Est. $1.79)
🔸 Revenue: $1.04B (Est. $1B)
🔸 Strong growth in Online segment
Elf Beauty ( $ELF):
🔸 Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76)
🔸 Revenue: $355.3M (Est. $330.39M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance:
🔸 EPS $3.27-$3.32 (from $3.47-$3.53)
🔸 Sales $1.3B-$1.31B (from $1.315B-$1.335B)
Expedia ( $EXPE):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $2.39 (Est. $2.04)
🔸 Adjusted EBITDA: $643M (Est. $570.9M)
🔸 Revenue: $3.184B (Est. $3.07B)
🔸 Gross Bookings: $24.422B
🔸 Dividend reinstated
Mohawk Industries ( $MHK):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.95 (Est. $1.85)
🔸 Revenue: $2.64B (Est. $2.54B)
🔸 Global Ceramic Sales: +1.5% reported, Flooring ROW Sales: -2.1% reported
🔸 Hurricane impact: ~$10M
Nikola ( $NKLA):
🔸 Shares decline on reports of potential sale, restructuring, or bankruptcy
Skechers ( $SKX):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.75)
🔸 Sales: $2.212B (Est. $2.22B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Sales $2.4-2.43B (Est. $2.486B), EPS $1.10-1.15 (Est. $1.55)
Bill Holdings ( $BILL):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.47)
🔸 Revenue: $362.6M (+14% YoY, Est. $359.99M)
🔸 Q3 Guidance: EPS $0.35-$0.38 (Est. $0.34)
🔸 Revenue $352.5M-$357.5M (Est. $360.37M)
Cloudflare ( $NET):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.19 (Est. $0.18)
🔸 Revenue: $459.9M (Est. $452.12M)
🔸 Added 55 customers spending >$1M/year in 2024
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Adj EPS $0.79-$0.80 (Est. $0.85), Revenue $2.09B-$2.094B (Est. $2.1B)
GoPro ( $GPRO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: -$0.09 (Est. -$0.12)
🔸 Revenue: $200.88M (Est. $196.5M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: EPS loss -$0.13 to -$0.03 (Est. -$0.08)
🔸 Revenue $115M-$135M (Est. $136.25M)
🔸 Gross Margin ~35%
Fortinet ( $FTNT):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.61)
🔸 Revenue: $1.66B (Est. $1.6B), Billings: $2B
🔸 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 39% (+720 bps YoY)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: EPS $2.41-$2.47 (Est. $2.42), Revenue $6.65B-$6.85B (Est. $6.63B)
Lumentum Holdings ( $LITE):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.42 (Est. $0.36)
🔸 Revenue: $402.2M (Est. $389.76M), Adj Gross Margin: 32.3%, Adj Op Margin: 7.9%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $410M-$425M (Est. $411.84M), Adj EPS $0.47-$0.53 (Est. $0.42)
Microchip Technology ( $MCHP):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.28)
🔸 Revenue: $1.026B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $0.05-$0.15 (Est. $0.27), Revenue $920M-$1.0B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 FY25 Capex: ~$135M
Monolithic Power Systems ( $MPWR):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $4.09 (Est. $3.98)
🔸 Revenue: $621.67M (Est. $608.09M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $610M-$630M (Est. $584.38M), Gross Margin 55.4%-56%
🔸 Dividend increased
Netflix ( $NFLX):
🔸 Considering bid for Formula One’s U.S. TV rights
Onto Innovation ( $ONTO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.51 (Est. $1.41)
🔸 Revenue: $263.939M (Est. $260.5M), Gross Margin: 50%
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $260M-$274M (Est. $267.4M), Adj EPS $1.40-$1.54 (Est. $1.49)
Pinterest ( $PINS):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.65)
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $470.943M (Est. $444.6M), Revenue: $1.154B (Est. $1.139B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $837M-$852M (Est. $832.78M), Adj EBITDA $155M-$170M (Est. $140.75M)
Qualys Inc. ( $QLYS):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.60 (Est. $1.37)
🔸 Revenue: $159.2M (Est. $156.27M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $5.50-$5.90 (Est. $6.09), Revenue $645M-$657M (Est. $651.13M)
SS&C Technologies ( $SSNC):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.58 (Est. $1.32)
🔸 Adj Op Income: $581.9M (Est. $569.2M), Adj Revenue: $1.5361B (Est. $1.483B)
🔸 FY Guidance: Adj Revenue $6.085B-$6.245B (Est. $6.159B), Adj EPS $5.64-$5.96 (Est. $5.75)
Synaptics ( $SYNA):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.92 (Est. $0.86)
🔸 Revenue: $267.2M (Est. $265.6M), Gross Margin: 53.6%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $250M-$280M (Est. $253.27M), Adj EPS $0.65-$1.05 (Est. $0.72)
Take-Two Interactive ( $TTWO):
🔸 Q3 EPS: -$0.71
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $88.8M, Revenue: $1.36B (Est. $1.39B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Revenue $1.52B-$1.62B (Est. $1.538B), Adj EBITDA $223M-$277M (Est. $327.92M)
ViaSat ( $VSAT):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.11 (Est. $0.05)
🔸 Revenue: $1.12B (Est. $1.13B)
🔸 On track for FY guidance; FY26 expects YoY revenue and Adj EBITDA growth, Capex ~$1.3B
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024
• $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14
• $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40)
• $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33
• $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105)
• $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68)
• $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183
• $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60)
• $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80
• $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68)
• $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50)
• $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650
• $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29
• $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267
• $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13)
• $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16)
• $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164
RECAP
• $AMZN: Developing smart glasses for delivery drivers to aid navigation.
• $ARMK: Q4 EPS $0.54 vs. $0.53 est., new $500M buyback, dividend up 11%, FY25 guidance increased.
• $BLMN: Downgraded to Market Perform by Raymond James.
• $BKNG: Announces organizational changes and layoffs.
• $TSLA: Shares up 7% premarket, reached $1T market cap post-Trump win.
• $ENPH: Cutting 17% of workforce, expects $17-20M in restructuring costs.
• $NOV: Downgraded to Neutral by Citigroup, target price cut to $18.
• $SMR: Filed for up to $200M share offering.
• $Russia: Potential merger of major oil companies into one entity.
• $FTX: Sued Binance & Zhao for $1.8B, also suing Scaramucci.
• $GEHC & $RDNT: Collaborating on AI in imaging.
• $INSP: $75M share repurchase program.
• $TEVA: Seeking to reverse patent decision.
• $TSM: Ordered to stop exporting advanced AI chips to China.
• $SPNS: Reduced FY24 revenue forecast, Q3 underperformed.
• $SONY: Q2 profit up 69%, game biz profits doubled, PS5 sales at 3.8M.
• $PINS: Upgraded to Outperform by Wedbush.
#Upgrades - Nov 11, 2024
• $AKAM: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $121
• $AMH: Evercore ISI Upgrades to Outperform from In Line - PT $42 (from $41)
• $CBOE: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $222 (from $212)
• $CSCO: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $66 (from $55)
• $EPAM: Scotiabank Upgrades to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $275
• $MLNK: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $25.50 (from $18)
• $MRCY: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $42 (from $30)
• $NTST: Scotiabank Upgrades to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $18
• $OEC: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $21 (from $20)
• $OUST: Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral
• $PINS: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $38
• $SKT: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $40 (from $35)
• $SKT: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $40 (from $35)
• $UEIC: B.Riley Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $14 (from $11)
• $UPST: BTIG Upgrades to Neutral from Sell
• $VLY: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $11 (from $10.50)
• $WBD: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
• $WGO: Northcoast Research Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $175