Notes
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER
🔸 BRP ( $DOOO) & Polaris ( $PII) cut to Sell by Citi due to weakening markets, tariff risks.
🔸 Five Below ( $FIVE) beats Q4 EPS ($3.48 vs. $3.37), guides Q1 & FY ahead of estimates but below EPS consensus.
🔸 Shoe Carnival ( $SCVL) beats Q4 EPS, misses revenue; guides FY25 below expectations.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) recalls 46K Cybertrucks over panel detachment risk.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 U.S. may extend Chevron's ( $CVX) Venezuela license, penalize others (WSJ).
🔸 QXO buying Beacon Roofing ( $BECN) for $11B cash.
🔸 Worthington Steel ( $WS) misses Q3; margins & EBIT sharply down.
FINANCIALS
🔸 FactSet ( $FDS) beats Q2; raises FY revenue outlook.
🔸 ProAssurance ( $PRA) bought by Doctors Company for $1.3B (60% premium).
🔸 Raymond James ( $RJF) AUM down 0.7% m/m to $1.58T.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 Capricor ( $CAPR) beats Q4 estimates; cash runway into 2027.
🔸 Jasper ( $JSPR) & MediWound (MDWD) file $300M & $125M shelf offerings.
🔸 scPharmaceuticals ( $SCPH) beats Q4 estimates.
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 Aeva ( $AEVA) beats Q4, raises FY25 guidance; progressing with Daimler Truck.
🔸 Microchip ( $MCHP) launches $1.35B offering.
🔸 PDD ( $PDD) misses Q4 revenue estimates on weak China demand.
🔸 SoftBank ( $SFTBY) buys Ampere Computing for $6.5B; Oracle & Carlyle exit.
STOCKS ON THE MOVE
Lamb Weston ( $LW): Shares dropped after naming Michael Smith as CEO on Jan 3, following activist investor Jana Partners' push for board changes or a sale. LW cut FY sales forecast to $6.35B-$6.45B from $6.6B-$6.8B after Q2 sales fell 8% to $1.6B; approved $250M buyback.
Lennar Corp. ( $LEN): Q4 revenue down 9.3% to $9.95B, below estimates. New orders dropped 2.7% to 16,895, backlog down 22%. Forecasts Q1 new orders at 17,500-18,000, deliveries at 17,000-17,500.
MillerKnoll Inc. ( $MLKN): Q2 EPS $0.55 vs. $0.56 est., sales up 2.2% to $970.4M. Gross margin fell to 38.8%. Guides Q3 sales $903M-$943M, EPS $0.41-$0.47.
Steelcase ( $SCS): Q3 EPS $0.30 vs. $0.22 est., sales up 2.2% to $794.9M. Q4 guidance EPS $0.20-$0.24, revenue $770M-$795M.
Stanley Black & Decker ( $SWK): Upgraded to Outperform by Mizuho, price target $110, added to top picks.
Tri-Pointe Homes ( $TPH): Announced $250M stock buyback program.
Swiss Watch Exports: November exports down 3.8% to CHF 2.41B, with U.S. as the only top market increasing by 4.7%.
Palantir Technologies ( $PLTR): Extended U.S. Army contract worth up to $618.9M to enhance data operations, continuing data and AI support since 2018.
Block ( $SQ): Upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer with a $115 target, citing growth in Square's Gross Payment Volume due to product and sales investments.
Raymond James ( $RJF): November client assets under administration at $1.60T (+3.6% m/m), financial assets under management at $251.7B (+4.4% m/m).
Synchrony ( $SYF): Upgraded to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
Mesoblast ( $MESO): Shares up after FDA approval of Ryoncil for treating GVHD in pediatric patients not responding to steroids.
Prothena ( $PRTA): Phase IIb PADOVA study by Roche on prasinezumab for early Parkinson's missed its primary endpoint after 18 months.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( $VRTX): Phase 2 study of suzetrigine in LSR met primary endpoint with significant pain reduction; plans for Phase 3 advancement.
Micron Technology ( $MU): Q1 adj EPS $1.79 vs. $1.76 est., revenue up 84% to $8.71B. Shares fell after hours due to Q2 forecast below expectations: revenue $7.7B-$8.1B vs. $8.99B est., gross margin 37.5%-39.5% vs. 41.3% est., EPS $1.33-$1.53 vs. $1.92 est. FY25 capex about $14B. Memory stocks STX, WDC also dropped.
Accenture ( $ACN): Q1 EPS $3.59 vs. $3.42 est., revenue up 9% to $17.69B vs. $17.15B est. Operating margin at 16.7%. Lowered FY EPS guidance to $12.43-$12.79 from $12.55-$12.91.
Keybanc: Upgraded Okta ( $OKTA) and Fortinet ( $FTNT) to Overweight, downgraded https://t.co/n5rFzz3Pbq (AI) to Underweight.
U.S. Commerce Department: Awarded SK Hynix up to $458M for an advanced chip plant and R&D facility in Indiana for AI.
MORNING RECAP
Dollar Tree ( $DLTR) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $1.12 (beat by $0.04)
╌Revenue: $7.56B (beat by $120M)
╌Same-store sales growth: Dollar Tree +1.8%, Family Dollar +1.9%, Enterprise +1.8%
╌Q4 Guidance: EPS $2.10-$2.30, Revenue $8.1B-$8.3B
╌Continues strategic review of Family Dollar segment
Foot Locker ( $FL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.33 (missed by $0.08)
╌Sales: $1.96B (missed by $60M)
╌Comp sales: +2.4% (below estimate)
╌FY25 adjusted EPS forecast lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from $1.50-$1.70
╌FY25 comp sales growth narrowed to 1%-1.5%
╌Gross margin now expected at 28.7%-28.8%
General Motors ( $GM):
╌To record over $5B in non-cash charges for China JV:
╌Restructuring: $2.6B-$2.9B
╌Reduced value: $2.7B
Torrid Holdings ( $CURV) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.01) (missed by $0.04)
╌Adj EBITDA: $19.584M (missed by $7.2M)
╌Revenue: $263.766M (missed by $22M)
╌Q4 Guidance: Sales $255M-$270M, Adj EBITDA $9M-$15M
╌FY25 Guidance: Sales $1.083B-$1.098B, Adj EBITDA $101M-$107M
Volkswagen ( $VWAGY):
╌Recalls 4,616 vehicles in the US due to potential battery overheating/fire risk.
Crescent Energy ( $CRGY):
╌Acquires Eagle Ford assets from Ridgemar Energy for $905M upfront, with additional oil price-based payments.
Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR):
╌Offers 9.523 million shares at $10.50 each.
Old Dominion ( $ODFL) November Performance:
╌LTL tons/day: -8%
╌LTL shipments/day: -6.8%
╌LTL weight/shipment: -1.2%
XPO, Inc. ( $XPO) November Metrics:
╌LTL tonnage/day down 4.0% from last year.
╌Shipments/day down 4.2%.
╌Weight/shipment up by 0.2%.
Goldman Sachs ( $GS):
╌CEO David Solomon sold 6,550 shares at $610.91/share.
Iris Energy ( $IREN):
╌Issues $300M in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Raymond James Financial Inc ( $RJF):
╌Authorizes $1.5B share repurchase.
╌Increases dividend to $0.50.
Royal Bank of Canada ( $RY) Q4:
╌Adjusted EPS: C$3.07 (up from C$2.65)
╌Revenue: C$15.07B (up from C$12.69B)
╌Dividend raised by 4.2%.
Eli Lilly ( $LLY) vs. Novo Nordisk ( $NVO):
╌Zepbound outperforms Wegovy with 20% vs. 14% body weight loss.
Novavax ( $NVAX):
╌Sells Czech manufacturing facility to Novo Nordisk for $200M, aiming for $80M annual cost reduction.
Revolution Medicines ( $RVMD):
╌Secondary offering of 14.13M shares at $46.00 each.
Salesforce Inc. ( $CRM) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $2.41 (vs. est. $2.44)
╌Revenue: $9.44B (vs. est. $9.348B)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $9.9B-$10.1B (vs. est. $10.05B)
╌FY Revenue Guidance: Raised to $37.8B-$38.0B
╌Q4 Adj EPS Guidance: $2.57-$2.62 (vs. est. $2.65)
╌FY Adj EPS Guidance: $9.98-$10.03 (vs. est. $10.11)
Box Inc. ( $BOX) Q3:
╌EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $275.9M (up 5% y/y, vs. est. $275.1M)
╌RPO: $1.282B, up 13% q/q
╌FY25 EPS Guidance Raised to $1.70
╌FY25 Revenue Guidance Narrows to $1.09B
Couchbase Inc. ( $BASE) Q3:
╌EPS: ($0.35) (vs. est. ($0.08))
╌Revenue: $51.628M (vs. est. $50.78M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $52.7M-$53.5M (vs. est. $54.05M)
╌Q4 ARR: $236.5M-$239.5M
Marvell Technologies ( $MRVL) Q3:
╌Adjusted EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.41)
╌Revenue: $1.52B (up 6.9% y/y, vs. est. $1.45B)
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.59±$0.05
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $1.8B±5% (vs. est. $1.65B)
Okta Inc. ( $OKTA):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.67 (vs. est. $0.58)
╌Revenue: $665M (vs. est. $649.7M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $667M-$669M
╌Q4 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $0.73-$0.74
╌FY Revenue Guidance: $2.595B-$2.597B
╌FY Adjusted EPS Guidance: $2.75-$2.76
Pure Storage ( $PSTG):
╌Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.50 (vs. est. $0.42)
╌Revenue: $831.1M (vs. est. $814.88M)
╌Q4 Revenue Guidance: $867M
╌Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: $135M
NXP Semiconductors ( $NXPI) & Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM):
╌Discussing $8B Singapore venture expansion amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
#Upgrades - Oct 09, 2024
$AFRM: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $37 (from $20)
$HD: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $460
$HON: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $235
$INTR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $8.50 (from $7.50).
$LOW: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $30
$LPLA: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $285 (from $235)
$LUV: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $32 (from $24)
$MSCI: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $680
$RJF: JMP Securities Upgrades to Market Outperform from Market Perform - PT $146
$SAIA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
$VLO: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $165 (from $172)
$VNET: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $5.20