Notes
MARKET UPDATE:
CONSUMER
🔸 Autos ($GM, $F, $STLA, $TSLA): Trump plans 25% tariffs on foreign cars/parts starting Thursday. He told NBC he "couldn’t care less" if automakers raise prices.
🔸 Harley-Davidson ( $HOG): Warns EU’s potential 50% retaliatory tariff could push prices to extreme levels.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 FTC Solar ( $FTCI): Q4 adj. EPS loss (-$0.80) vs. est. (-$0.84); revenue $13.2M vs. est. $11.61M; Q1 rev. outlook ($18M-$20M) vs. consensus $23.47M.
🔸 Honeywell ( $HON): Plans to take Quantinuum public by 2026-2027, market conditions permitting.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Downgraded to Market Perform at BMO; Steel Dynamics (STLD): Upgraded to Outperform, seen benefiting from Trump's tariffs.
FINANCIALS
🔸 Cannae ( $CNNE): Plans to use $460M from Dun & Bradstreet sale for buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction.
🔸 LPL Financial ( $LPLA): Acquiring Commonwealth Financial for ~$2.7B in cash (2,900 advisors, $285B AUM).
🔸 PNC Financial ( $PNC): Upgraded to Buy at HSBC.
HEALTHCARE
🔸 RFK Jr.: Doubling HHS layoffs to 20,000, consolidating divisions from 28 to 15, renaming it "Administration for a Healthy America ( $AHA)."
🔸 Waters Corp. ( $WAT): Upgraded to Overweight at KeyBanc ($460 target), citing strength in pharma/biotech manufacturing.
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 xAI & X Merger: xAI acquires X in an all-stock deal, valuing xAI at $80B and X at $33B. The merger integrates AI expertise with X’s distribution and data.
🔸 Semiconductors: Renesas, Sumco, and Tokyo Electron among Japan’s biggest losers as Nikkei 225 slumps. Foxconn and TSMC also fell in Taiwan.
MORNING RECAP
❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition.
❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%.
❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60.
❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain.
❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%.
❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M.
❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues.
❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025.
❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030.
❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M.
❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences.
❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share.
❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows.
❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation.
❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share.
❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient.
❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B.
❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B.
❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M.
❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M.
❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities.
❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns.
❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
MOVING UP
$GAP surged 5% after an upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan, with a new price target of $30. They revised their FY25 EPS to $2.30 and FY26 EPS to $2.53, expecting revenue growth and margin expansion.
$INTC rose 2% on CEO Pat Gelsinger's retirement announcement. David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus are appointed interim Co-CEOs, with Frank Yeary as Interim Executive Chair while a permanent successor is sought.
$NBIS soared 16% after securing $700M through a private placement involving NVDA, planning to issue 33.33M Class A shares at $21/share.
$NVCR jumped 30% following successful trial results where its cancer therapy, combined with chemotherapy, extended pancreatic cancer patient survival from 14.16 to 16.20 months on average.
$PTCT climbed 14% after licensing its experimental Huntington's Disease drug, PTC518, to a Novartis unit for up to $2.9B, with $1B upfront.
$SMCI increased 14% after confirming no need to restate financials, with no evidence of shipping incomplete products to boost quarterly revenue.
$TNDM went up 6% after an upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley, with a $45 price target, citing undervalued stock and potential in type-2 diabetes market expansion.
$TSLA gained 2% with Stifel maintaining its Buy rating, raising the target to $411, praising Tesla's broader market vision beyond just being an automaker. Additionally, Roth MKM upgraded TSLA to Buy, setting a $380 target, highlighting potential catalysts for value increase.
MOVING DOWN
$CORZ drops 5% on news of a $500M convertible senior notes offer for 2031.
$NU falls 5%, hit by Citigroup's downgrade to Sell, citing profit-taking despite strong growth in Brazil.
$PCG slides 5% after announcing $2.4B in stock offerings.
$STLA tumbles 8% following CEO Carlos Tavares' sudden resignation after nearly four years.
$UPST plunges 11%, downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan, with caution advised on fintech at current valuations.
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
