Notes
MORNING BID
Amazon ( $AMZN):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.86 (Est. $1.49)
🔸 Operating Income: $21.2B (Est. $19.145B)
🔸 Sales: $187.8B (Est. $187.299B)
Q1 Guidance:
🔸 Sales $151-155B (Est. $158.45B)
🔸 Operating Income $14-18B (Est. $18.347B)
🔸 AWS Sales: $107.6B
Tesla ( $TSLA):
🔸 China EV Sales in Jan: 63,238 units (-11.5% YoY, -32.6% MoM)
🔸 BYD Sales: 296,446 units (+47.5% YoY, -41.8% MoM)
Boyd Gaming ( $BYD):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.96 (Est. $1.79)
🔸 Revenue: $1.04B (Est. $1B)
🔸 Strong growth in Online segment
Elf Beauty ( $ELF):
🔸 Q3 Adjusted EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.76)
🔸 Revenue: $355.3M (Est. $330.39M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance:
🔸 EPS $3.27-$3.32 (from $3.47-$3.53)
🔸 Sales $1.3B-$1.31B (from $1.315B-$1.335B)
Expedia ( $EXPE):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $2.39 (Est. $2.04)
🔸 Adjusted EBITDA: $643M (Est. $570.9M)
🔸 Revenue: $3.184B (Est. $3.07B)
🔸 Gross Bookings: $24.422B
🔸 Dividend reinstated
Mohawk Industries ( $MHK):
🔸 Q4 Adjusted EPS: $1.95 (Est. $1.85)
🔸 Revenue: $2.64B (Est. $2.54B)
🔸 Global Ceramic Sales: +1.5% reported, Flooring ROW Sales: -2.1% reported
🔸 Hurricane impact: ~$10M
Nikola ( $NKLA):
🔸 Shares decline on reports of potential sale, restructuring, or bankruptcy
Skechers ( $SKX):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.75)
🔸 Sales: $2.212B (Est. $2.22B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Sales $2.4-2.43B (Est. $2.486B), EPS $1.10-1.15 (Est. $1.55)
Bill Holdings ( $BILL):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.47)
🔸 Revenue: $362.6M (+14% YoY, Est. $359.99M)
🔸 Q3 Guidance: EPS $0.35-$0.38 (Est. $0.34)
🔸 Revenue $352.5M-$357.5M (Est. $360.37M)
Cloudflare ( $NET):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.19 (Est. $0.18)
🔸 Revenue: $459.9M (Est. $452.12M)
🔸 Added 55 customers spending >$1M/year in 2024
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Adj EPS $0.79-$0.80 (Est. $0.85), Revenue $2.09B-$2.094B (Est. $2.1B)
GoPro ( $GPRO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: -$0.09 (Est. -$0.12)
🔸 Revenue: $200.88M (Est. $196.5M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: EPS loss -$0.13 to -$0.03 (Est. -$0.08)
🔸 Revenue $115M-$135M (Est. $136.25M)
🔸 Gross Margin ~35%
Fortinet ( $FTNT):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $0.74 (Est. $0.61)
🔸 Revenue: $1.66B (Est. $1.6B), Billings: $2B
🔸 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 39% (+720 bps YoY)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: EPS $2.41-$2.47 (Est. $2.42), Revenue $6.65B-$6.85B (Est. $6.63B)
Lumentum Holdings ( $LITE):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.42 (Est. $0.36)
🔸 Revenue: $402.2M (Est. $389.76M), Adj Gross Margin: 32.3%, Adj Op Margin: 7.9%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $410M-$425M (Est. $411.84M), Adj EPS $0.47-$0.53 (Est. $0.42)
Microchip Technology ( $MCHP):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.20 (Est. $0.28)
🔸 Revenue: $1.026B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $0.05-$0.15 (Est. $0.27), Revenue $920M-$1.0B (Est. $1.05B)
🔸 FY25 Capex: ~$135M
Monolithic Power Systems ( $MPWR):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $4.09 (Est. $3.98)
🔸 Revenue: $621.67M (Est. $608.09M)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $610M-$630M (Est. $584.38M), Gross Margin 55.4%-56%
🔸 Dividend increased
Netflix ( $NFLX):
🔸 Considering bid for Formula One’s U.S. TV rights
Onto Innovation ( $ONTO):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.51 (Est. $1.41)
🔸 Revenue: $263.939M (Est. $260.5M), Gross Margin: 50%
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $260M-$274M (Est. $267.4M), Adj EPS $1.40-$1.54 (Est. $1.49)
Pinterest ( $PINS):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.65)
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $470.943M (Est. $444.6M), Revenue: $1.154B (Est. $1.139B)
🔸 Q1 Guidance: Revenue $837M-$852M (Est. $832.78M), Adj EBITDA $155M-$170M (Est. $140.75M)
Qualys Inc. ( $QLYS):
🔸 Q4 EPS: $1.60 (Est. $1.37)
🔸 Revenue: $159.2M (Est. $156.27M)
🔸 FY25 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $5.50-$5.90 (Est. $6.09), Revenue $645M-$657M (Est. $651.13M)
SS&C Technologies ( $SSNC):
🔸 Q4 Adj EPS: $1.58 (Est. $1.32)
🔸 Adj Op Income: $581.9M (Est. $569.2M), Adj Revenue: $1.5361B (Est. $1.483B)
🔸 FY Guidance: Adj Revenue $6.085B-$6.245B (Est. $6.159B), Adj EPS $5.64-$5.96 (Est. $5.75)
Synaptics ( $SYNA):
🔸 Q2 Adj EPS: $0.92 (Est. $0.86)
🔸 Revenue: $267.2M (Est. $265.6M), Gross Margin: 53.6%
🔸 Q3 Guidance: Revenue $250M-$280M (Est. $253.27M), Adj EPS $0.65-$1.05 (Est. $0.72)
Take-Two Interactive ( $TTWO):
🔸 Q3 EPS: -$0.71
🔸 Adj EBITDA: $88.8M, Revenue: $1.36B (Est. $1.39B)
🔸 Q4 Guidance: Revenue $1.52B-$1.62B (Est. $1.538B), Adj EBITDA $223M-$277M (Est. $327.92M)
ViaSat ( $VSAT):
🔸 Q3 EPS: $0.11 (Est. $0.05)
🔸 Revenue: $1.12B (Est. $1.13B)
🔸 On track for FY guidance; FY26 expects YoY revenue and Adj EBITDA growth, Capex ~$1.3B
RECAP
• $AAP Q3: Sales down 21% to $2.15B, below $2.67B forecast; EPS at -$0.04 vs. $0.49 expected. Plans include store and distribution center closures, and headcount cuts.
• $BZH Q4: Revenue up 25% to $806.2M vs. $777.8M expected; Adjusted EBITDA down 10.5%. Home closings up 4.8%, but gross margin decreased.
• $BV Q4: Adj. EPS $0.30 vs. $0.31 est., revenue slightly below at $728.7M. FY guidance lower than expected.
• $CPRI ends merger with Tapestry, which then ups its share buyback plan.
• $IBTA Q3: EPS $0.94 vs. $0.35 forecast, revenue up 16% to $98.6M. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations.
• $JJSF Q4: Adj. EPS $1.60 vs. $1.85 expected, sales slightly under $429.75M estimate.
• $HP Q4: EPS $0.76 vs. $0.81 expected, revenue $694M vs. $695.24M forecast. FY25 CapEx guidance $290M-$325M, depreciation around $400M, R&D $32M.
• $HI Q4: Adj. EPS $1.01 vs. $0.92 expected, revenue $837.6M vs. $792.98M. Q1 and FY25 EPS guidance below estimates.
• $OVV agrees to acquire Montney assets for $2.377B cash from Paramount Resources Ltd.
• $TTEK Q4: EPS $0.38 vs. $0.37 expected, revenue $1.37B vs. $1.135B. Provides next quarter and FY guidance.
• $NU Q3: Adjusted net income $592M vs. $559M est., revenue $2.9B as expected, ROE at 30%.
• $OPRX Q3: EPS $0.12 vs. $0.06 est., revenue $21.3M vs. $25M. FY guidance below expectations.
• $TARS Q3: EPS ($0.61) vs. ($0.97) est., sales $48.1M vs. $43.44M.
• $CSCO Q1: EPS $0.91 vs. $0.87, revenue $13.84B vs. $13.77B. Provides Q2 and FY guidance.
• $DIS Q2: EPS $1.14 vs. $1.10, revenue $22.57B vs. $22.47B. Forecasts high-single digit EPS growth for FY25.
• $ASML expects sales to reach €44B-€60B by 2030, with 8%-14% annual growth.
• $DDD Q3 prelim: Revenue about $113M, with growth in materials but decline in printer sales.
• $DIGI Q4: EPS $0.52 vs. $0.50, revenue $105.1M vs. $104.08M. Q1 guidance set.
• $JD Q3: EPS $1.24 vs. $1.05, revenue up 5.1% to $37.1B. No Q4 guidance.
• $KLIC Q4: EPS $0.34 vs. $0.35, revenue $181.3M vs. $180M. Announces share repurchase and dividend increase.
• $NN Q3: EPS ($0.11) vs. ($0.16), revenue $1.61M vs. $1.105M.
• $SONO Q4: EPS ($0.18) vs. ($0.41), revenue $255.38M vs. $247.36M. No forward guidance.
• $SYNA to issue $400M in convertible notes due 2031.
#Downgrades - Oct 08, 2024
$ALB: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $99
$AXP: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$AXP: BTIG Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $230
$BUD: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $68
$CME: Redburn-Atlantic Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $244
$FYBR: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $38.50 (from $39)
$MSFT: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform
$OMF: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $46 (from $52)
$OTIS: Wolfe Research Downgrades to Peerperform from Outperform
$QCOM: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
$STZ: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $270 (from $300)
$SYNA: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight