Notes

🚨 MORNING BID 🚨 🔸 Bumble ( $BMBL): Q4 rev -4.4% YoY to $261.6M (est. $260.5M). Q1 guide: $242M-$248M (below $256.9M est.), follows weak MTCH outlook. 🔸 Canadian Tire: Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands ( $KTB) for C$1.28B ($901.2M). 🔸 IFF ( $IFF): Q4 adj. EPS $0.97 (est. $0.81), adj. EBITDA $471M (est. $458M) on $2.8B sales (est. $2.677B). FY guide: sales $10.6B-$10.9B (est. $11.158B), adj. EBITDA $2.0B-$2.15B (est. $2.213B). 🔸 La-Z-Boy ( $LZB): Q3 adj. EPS $0.68 (in-line), sales $522M (est. $516.54M). Q4 guide: sales $545M-$565M (est. $565.47M), adj. op margin 8.5%-9.5%. 🔸 Toll Brothers ( $TOL): Q1 EPS $1.75 (est. $2.04), revs $1.86B (est. $1.906B). Q2 guide: deliveries 2,500-2,700 units, avg. price $940K-$960K. FY deliveries 11,200-11,600, avg. price $945K-$965K. 🔸 TrueCar ( $TRUE): Q4 loss (-$0.07) vs. est. (-$0.02), revs $46.2M (est. $47.3M). Expects Q1 rev growth in high single digits, Q1 adj. EBITDA loss ~$5M, but strong Q2-Q4 outlook w/ growing OEM incentives. 🔸 Wolverine ( $WWW): Q4 adj. EPS $0.42 (in-line), revs $494.7M (est. $485.74M). Gross margin up on lower costs, inventory down 35.6% YoY to $241M. 🔸 Devon Energy ( $DVN): Q4 EPS $1.16 (est. $1.00), revs $4.4B (est. $4.25B). Q4 oil production 398K bpd. FY25 capex $3.8B-$4.0B (50% to Delaware Basin). FY25 prod. 805K-825K boe/d, Q1 oil 380K-386K bpd. 🔸 EQT Corp. ( $EQT): Q4 EPS $0.69 (est. $0.49), adj. EBITDA $1.41B (est. $1.2B), revs $1.62B (est. $1.77B). FY25 FCF $2.6B-$3.3B, net debt ~$7B. 🔸 Magnolia Oil & Gas ( $MGY): Q4 EPS $0.44 (est. $0.45), adj. EBITDA $235.8M (est. $230.1M), revs $326.6M (est. $325.2M). FY25 capex $460M-$490M, production +5-7%. 🔸 Matador ( $MTDR): Q4 EPS $1.83 (est. $1.75); raises div. 25% to $1.25 annually. Record oil production 99.8K bpd (+32% YoY). FY25 oil prod. 120K-124K boe/d, nat gas 492M-504M cf/d. 🔸 Occidental ( $OXY): Q4 EPS $0.80 (est. $0.70), revs $6.76B (est. $7.14B). Hikes div. 9% to $0.24/share. Q1 prod. 1.37M-1.41M boe/d, FY25 1.385M-1.445M boe/d. Focus on debt reduction. 🔸 Shift4 ( $FOUR): Acquiring Global Blue (GB) for $7.50/share (15% premium, ~$2.5B EV). Q4 EPS $1.35 (est. $1.14), revs $887M (est. $1.006B). FY25 adj. EBITDA guide: $830M-$855M (est. $864.2M). 🔸 Compass ( $COMP): Q4 loss (-$0.08) vs. est. (-$0.07), revs $1.38B (est. $1.32B). Q1 revs $1.35B-$1.475B (est. $1.34B), Q1 adj. EBITDA $11M-$25M. 🔸 CoStar ( $CSGP): Q4 EPS $0.15 (est. $0.23), revs $709M (est. $703M). FY rev +11% YoY, Q4 net income +13%, EBITDA +43%. Approved $500M stock buyback. 🔸 XP Inc. ( $XP): Q4 EPS $2.23 (est. $2.20), revs $4.49B (est. $4.45B). Adj. ROAE 23.4%, adj. ROTE 29.2%. 🔸 Halozyme ( $HALO): Q4 EPS $1.06 (est. $1.16), revs $298M (est. $288.2M). FY25 revs $1.15B-$1.225B (est. $1.188B), adj. EBITDA $755M-$805M (est. $772.4M), adj. EPS $4.95-$5.35 (est. $4.90). 🔸 Penumbra ( $PEN): Q4 EPS $0.97 (est. $0.90), revs $315.5M (est. $311.5M). FY25 revs $1.34B-$1.36B (est. $1.362B), gross margin +100bps, op margin 13%-14%. 🔸 Petco ( $WOOF): Announced three new execs to drive operational improvements, naming Sabrina Simmons as CFO. 🔸 Supernus ( $SUPN): Shares drop after SPN-820 Phase 2b trial for treatment-resistant depression failed to meet primary endpoint. 🔸 Celanese ( $CE): Q4 EPS $1.45 (est. $1.20), revs $2.4B (est. $2.36B). Q1 EPS guide $0.25-$0.50 (est. $1.65) due to non-recurring costs. Sees continued demand/pricing weakness in key markets. 🔸 Element Solutions ( $ESI): Q4 EPS $0.35 (in-line), revs $624.2M (est. $595.8M). 🔸 Flowserve ( $FLS): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.77), revs $1.18B (est. $1.21B) bookings $1.2B, adj. gross margin 32.8%. Guides FY sales +5-7% (est. +8.57%) EPS $3.10-$3.30 (est. $3.25). 🔸 Sonoco ( $SON): Q4 EPS $1.00 (est. $1.20), revs $1.36B (est. $1.67B). FY25 EPS $6.00-$6.20 (est. $6.40), adj. EBITDA $1.3B-$1.4B. 🔸 Arista Networks ( $ANET): Q4 adj. EPS $0.65 (est. $0.57), revs $1.93B (est. $1.904B) adj. gross margin 64.2%. Guides Q1 revs $1.93B-$1.97B (est. $1.907B) adj. gross margin ~63%, adj. op margin ~44%. 🔸 Cadence Design Systems ( $CDNS): Q4 adj. EPS $1.88 (est. $1.82), revs $1.356B (est. $1.35B). FY25 adj. EPS $6.65-$6.75 (below est. $6.82), revs $5.14B-$5.22B (est. $5.25B) Q4 op margin 46.0% (vs. 42.9% YoY). 🔸 MicroStrategy ( $MSTR): Offering $2B in convertible bonds due 2030 for general purposes, including Bitcoin acquisition. 🔸 Unisys ( $UIS): Q4 EPS $0.33 (est. $0.30), revs $545.4M (est. $550.93M) Sees 2025 rev growth 0.5%-2.5%, non-GAAP op margin 6.5%-8.5%. 🔸 NetEase ( $NTES): Fears of unloading all its overseas U.S. game holdings due to rising costs, coinciding with China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs. 🔸 Waystar ( $WAY): Files to sell 18M shares of common stock.
$BMBL $KTB $IFF $LZB $TOL $TRUE
-0.07%
$WWW
-4.57%
$DVN $EQT $MGY $MTDR $OXY $FOUR
+1.09%
$COMP
-1.8%
$CSGP $XP
-0.47%
$HALO $PEN
+2.54%
$WOOF
+0.56%
$SUPN $CE $ESI $FLS
+17.77%
$SON
+1.95%
$ANET $CDNS $MSTR
-99.97%
$UIS $NTES $WAY
#Downgrades - Dec 13, 2024 • $AMPL: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight • $BLD: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $BOLD: Guggenheim Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $DHI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $156 (from $188) • $EDIT: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $3 (from $11) • $EDIT: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy • $EGHT: Mizuho Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $2.50 (from $2.75) • $FOLD: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $12 (from $17) • $HGV: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $41 (from $44) • $IBP: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $IMCR: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $35 (from $74) • $IMRX: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight • $MNDY: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight • $NDSN: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $237 (from $294) • $NOW: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight • $RHP: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $100 • $RNG: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $42 • $TOL: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $150 (from $166) • $VIK: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $49 • $WFRD: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $98 • $ZI: KeyBanc Downgrades to Underweight from Sector Weight - PT $10
$AMPL $BLD $BOLD
+0%
$DHI $EDIT $EGHT $FOLD $HGV $IBP $IMCR $IMRX $MNDY $NDSN $NOW $RHP $RNG $TOL $VIK $WFRD $ZI
MORNING RECAP ❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition. ❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%. ❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60. ❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain. ❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%. ❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M. ❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues. ❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025. ❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030. ❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M. ❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences. ❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share. ❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows. ❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation. ❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share. ❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient. ❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B. ❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B. ❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M. ❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M. ❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities. ❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns. ❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
$ALK $CASY $EBAY $STLA $TOL $MTN $NGLOY $CE $FLNC $PL $AMZN $INTU $AJG $CNS $LAZ $LLY $FATE $HQY $ORCL
-1.65%
$BRZE $AI
+7.44%
$MU $MDB $TSM
-8.8%
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024 • $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14 • $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40) • $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33 • $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy • $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105) • $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68) • $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183 • $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60) • $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80 • $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68) • $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50) • $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650 • $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29 • $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267 • $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41) • $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13) • $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16) • $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164
$AAOI $BIOA $BSIG $CARM $CCI $CNC
-7.47%
$DHI $EBAY $FAF
+21.84%
$IAC $IREN $MLM $MTG $PGR $PINS
+0.61%
$PTVE $RKT $TOL
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