Notes
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
#Upgrades - Dec 13, 2024
• $CAH: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $127 (from $101)
• $CCS: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $97 (from $110)
• $CIEN: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $95 (from $70)
• $CNC: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $79)
• $CRM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $440
• $GIS: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $80 (from $78)
• $GLPI: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $54 (from $49)
• $NCLH: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $32 (from $28)
• $PENN: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $27 (from $19)
• $PTCT: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $67
• $PTEN: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $10
• $PYPL: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform - PT $107
• $RHI: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $90
• $SGMO: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $7
• $SRE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $98 (from $85)
• $TASK: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $21 (from $18)
• $UPBD: Stephens Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $38
• $UPST: Needham Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $100
• $VAC: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $116 (from $97)
• $VNOM: KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight from Sector Weight - PT $62
#Upgrades - Dec 03, 2024
• $ALHC: Stephens Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $17 (from $13)
• $AU: RBC Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $31
• $AXON: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $700 (from $500)
• $C: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform
• $CENX: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
• $CNP: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $37 (from $31)
• $CRDO: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $80 (from $27)
• $CVS: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $66
• $DTE: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $143 (from $129)
• $KR: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $73 (from $54)
• $PTCT: RBC Capital Upgrades to Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $63 (from $39)
• $STT: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform
• $SYF: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $85 (from $60)
• $UPST: Redburn-Atlantic Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $95
MOVING UP
$GAP surged 5% after an upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan, with a new price target of $30. They revised their FY25 EPS to $2.30 and FY26 EPS to $2.53, expecting revenue growth and margin expansion.
$INTC rose 2% on CEO Pat Gelsinger's retirement announcement. David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus are appointed interim Co-CEOs, with Frank Yeary as Interim Executive Chair while a permanent successor is sought.
$NBIS soared 16% after securing $700M through a private placement involving NVDA, planning to issue 33.33M Class A shares at $21/share.
$NVCR jumped 30% following successful trial results where its cancer therapy, combined with chemotherapy, extended pancreatic cancer patient survival from 14.16 to 16.20 months on average.
$PTCT climbed 14% after licensing its experimental Huntington's Disease drug, PTC518, to a Novartis unit for up to $2.9B, with $1B upfront.
$SMCI increased 14% after confirming no need to restate financials, with no evidence of shipping incomplete products to boost quarterly revenue.
$TNDM went up 6% after an upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley, with a $45 price target, citing undervalued stock and potential in type-2 diabetes market expansion.
$TSLA gained 2% with Stifel maintaining its Buy rating, raising the target to $411, praising Tesla's broader market vision beyond just being an automaker. Additionally, Roth MKM upgraded TSLA to Buy, setting a $380 target, highlighting potential catalysts for value increase.
MOVING DOWN
$CORZ drops 5% on news of a $500M convertible senior notes offer for 2031.
$NU falls 5%, hit by Citigroup's downgrade to Sell, citing profit-taking despite strong growth in Brazil.
$PCG slides 5% after announcing $2.4B in stock offerings.
$STLA tumbles 8% following CEO Carlos Tavares' sudden resignation after nearly four years.
$UPST plunges 11%, downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan, with caution advised on fintech at current valuations.
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
#Upgrades - Nov 11, 2024
• $AKAM: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $121
• $AMH: Evercore ISI Upgrades to Outperform from In Line - PT $42 (from $41)
• $CBOE: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $222 (from $212)
• $CSCO: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $66 (from $55)
• $EPAM: Scotiabank Upgrades to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $275
• $MLNK: UBS Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $25.50 (from $18)
• $MRCY: Jefferies Upgrades to Hold from Underperform - PT $42 (from $30)
• $NTST: Scotiabank Upgrades to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform - PT $18
• $OEC: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $21 (from $20)
• $OUST: Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral
• $PINS: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $38
• $SKT: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $40 (from $35)
• $SKT: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $40 (from $35)
• $UEIC: B.Riley Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $14 (from $11)
• $UPST: BTIG Upgrades to Neutral from Sell
• $VLY: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $11 (from $10.50)
• $WBD: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
• $WGO: Northcoast Research Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $175