Notes
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -11.68%
🔸 $MSTR: -9.99%
🔸 $BABA: -7.52%
🔸 $TSLA: -7.15%
🔸 $NIO: -6.79%
🔸 $NVDA: -6.35%
🔸 $AMD: -4.40%
🔸 $APPL: -4.23%
🔸 $INTC: -3.88%
🔸 $META: -3.71%
🔸 $AMZN: -3.12%
🔸 $GOOGL: -2.69%
🔸 $BA: -2.42%
🔸 $NFLX: -2.36%
🔸 $MSFT: -2.07%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -14.20%
🔸 $BABA: -11.45%
🔸 $MSTR: -10.73%
🔸 $NIO: -9.25%
🔸 $TSLA: -8.59%
🔸 $NVDA: -7.05%
🔸 $AMD: -6.02%
🔸 $META: -5.19%
🔸 $INTC: -4.33%
🔸 $AMZN: -4.27%
🔸 $BA: -4.20%
🔸 $NFLX: -3.89%
🔸 $APPL: -3.80%
🔸 $GOOGL: -3.70%
🔸 $MSFT: -3.62%
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
$XPEV: CITI UPGRADES TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL - PT $29 (FROM $13.70)
Volume Upgrade: We raise our 2025/26E volume forecast from 260k/330k to 480k/580k units, driven by:
🔸 Strong order intake in February.
🔸 Launch of 2-3 new BEVs, 1 EREV, and facelifts in 2025, extending model cycles.
🔸 P7+ and MONA03 expected to reach 20-24k units/month, supported by strong EV demand and export growth.
Valuation: We increase our 2025E P/S multiple to 2.5x (from 1.9x) and TP to US$29.00/HK$113.00 (from US$13.70/HK$53.30), reflecting strong launches and AI/Robotics potential.
Upgrade to Buy on robust volume growth, 2026E earnings turnaround, and AI/Robotics upside.
MORNING BID
🔸 QXO ( $QXO) is in talks to buy Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) for $11B ($124.35/share in cash).
🔸 Uber ( $UBER) & Lyft ( $LYFT) dominate North American ride-hailing, but Bolt aims to challenge them, per The Information.
🔸 Xpeng ( $XPEV) plans to mass-produce its modular flying car by 2026, said Chairman He Xiaopeng.
🔸 Yum China ( $YUM) appointed Adrian Ding as CFO, removing his interim title after a search following Andy Yeung’s resignation.
🔸 Franco-Nevada ( $FNV) Q4 adj. EPS $0.95 (est. $0.89), revenue $321M (+6% y/y, est. $304.44M); expects 2025 revenue to rise 25%+ with gold at $2,800/oz.
Upgrades:
🔸 Grainger ( $GWW), Fastenal (FAST) → Outperform (from Market Perform) at William Blair.
🔸 Knight-Swift ( $KNX) → Neutral (from Sell) at Citigroup.
Downgrade:
🔸 Sherwin-Williams ( $SHW) → Hold (from Buy) at Jefferies.
🔸 Beam Therapeutics ( $BEAM) prices 16.2M shares at $28.48 each.
🔸 DexCom ( $DXCM) gets FDA warning after inspections but sees no material impact on FY25 revenue.
🔸 Nordisk ( $NVO) reports REDEFINE 2 trial met its primary endpoint, showing significant weight loss with CagriSema in 1,206 patients over 68 weeks.
🔸 Trevi ( $TRVI) Phase 2a RIVER trial: Haduvio reduced 24-hour cough frequency by 67% (57% placebo-adjusted, p<0.0001).
🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH) shares rose as Mantle Ridge built a $1B+ stake, seeing them as undervalued (WSJ).
Upgrades:
🔸 DocuSign ( $DOCU) → Neutral (from Underweight) at JPMorgan.
Deals:
🔸 NVent ( $NVT) to buy Avail’s electrical products for $975M, expects EPS boost in year one.
🔸 Perion ( $PERI) expands buyback program to $125M.
🔸 Taiwan Semi ( $TSM) Feb revenue NT$260.01B (+43% y/y, -11% m/m); Jan-Feb total NT$553.30B (+39% y/y).
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
#Downgrades - Nov 21, 2024
• $ADNT: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $24 (from $30)
• $GRAB: China Renaissance Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.40
• $RBC: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $335 (from $330)
• $SHOP: DZ Bank Downgrades to Sell from Hold
• $TRV: Janney Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $280
• $ULTA: William Blair Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $WMT: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $91
• $XPEV: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $12.50 (from $11.70)
#Upgrades - Nov 20, 2024
• $AVAV: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $230 (from $240)
• $CHWY: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $40 (from $24)
• $ENR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $39 (from $32)
• $GLPI: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $54 (from $49)
• $INSP: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $255 (from $220)
• $LMND: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from underweight - PT $42 (from $23)
• $NWL: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $10 (from $8)
• $SEDG: Guggenheim Upgrades to Neutral from Sell
• $XPEV: CMB International Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $16 (from $8)
MORNING RECAP
• $LOW Q3: EPS $2.89 (beat consensus $2.81), sales $20.2B (beat consensus $19.92B); Q3 comp sales -1.1% due to weak DIY demand, offset by storm sales and growth in Pro and online. Revised full-year outlook: sales $83B-$83.5B, EPS $11.80-$11.90.
• $ADM: Q3 profit fell due to weak North American crush margins; Nutrition segment expects better Q4 but not as high as Q3 2024.
• $CTRN: Appointed Ken Seipel as CEO; Q3 sales $179.1M, comp sales up 5.7%.
• $WEN: Ken Cook appointed as CFO, effective December 2, 2024.
• $XPEV: Q3 revenue $1.39B, above estimates; EPS loss of $1.90, worse than expected $1.71 loss. Q4 revenue forecast at $2.09B-$2.21B; launched P7+ sedan.
• $ACM increases buyback to $1B; Q4 EPS $1.27, revenue $4.11B, slightly below consensus. FY25 EPS forecast $5.00-$5.20.
• $AMCR to acquire $BERY in $8.4B stock deal at a 10% premium.
• $AVAV acquiring BlueHalo in $4.1B stock deal.
Oil prices dip as Johan Sverdrup field restarts post-outage.
• $ERII launches $50M stock repurchase.
• $NPSCY engages with $X stakeholders to push for $15B acquisition.
• $SYAXF to merge with $PLL in an all-stock deal, valuing the new entity at $623M.
• $SYM Q4 operating income exceeds expectations; sets Q1 revenue guidance at $495-515M.
U.S. defense stocks rise following Russia's updated nuclear policy and threats.
• $DOC ups 2024 FFO guidance to $1.80-$1.82, citing strong portfolio performance.
• $INCY stock drops after pausing a phase 2 study due to preclinical findings.
• $MDT Q2 revenue up 5.2% to $8.4B, raises FY25 EPS outlook slightly.
• $OMCL issues $150M in convertible senior notes.
• $SYRE plans to offer $200M in common stock and warrants.
• $AMD: Darla Smith resigns as Chief Accounting Officer on November 15.
• $GOOGL stock declines as DOJ plans to demand the sale of Chrome browser.
• $INTC: Efforts to distribute manufacturing grants under the Chips Act are stalled, with most of the $39B yet to be disbursed.
• $MSTR aims to raise $1.75B through convertible senior notes.
• $MCHP: Ganesh Moorthy retires; Steve Sanghi appointed as interim CEO.
• $SMCI stock rises after appointing BDO USA as auditor and seeking Nasdaq compliance extension
#Upgrades - Sep 05, 2024
$BZH: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $45 (from $41)
$EGP: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $200 (from $175)
$JWN: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $23 (from $18)
$KREF: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $13
$NMRK: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $16.50
$PLNT: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $97
$ROKU: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $72 (from $50)
$STWD: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $22.50 (from $20.50)
$XPEV: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $11.50 (from $8)
#Upgrades - Sep 03, 2024
$BAC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $45
$WFC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $65
$DB: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight
$V: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $325
$BAK: Bradesco BBI Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $8.50
$XPEV: Macquarie Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $10
$KOF: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $113.70 (from $108.30)
$ADSK: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $299 (from $242)
$IFF: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $120 (from $109)
$RDFN: B.Riley Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $13 (from $7.50)
$NCNO: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $38
$AAOI: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $17
$MTB: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $215 (from $183)
$CPAY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
$ADSK: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $295 (from $225)
$NTAP: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $150 (from $121)
$U: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $22
$FRGE: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $3