Notes
Earnings Summary & Key Updates
🔸 Monster Beverage ( $MNST) Q4 EPS: $0.38 (vs. est. $0.40); Revenue up 4.7% YoY to $1.81B (vs. est. $1.8B). Gross profit margin improved to 55.5% (Non-GAAP). Operating income up 7.9% to $517.9M (Non-GAAP).
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) applied for a permit in California linked to chauffeur services, a step toward regulatory approval for its planned robotaxi service.
🔸 Array Technologies ( $ARRY) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.16 (vs. est. $0.17), adj. EBITDA: $45.2M (vs. est. $47.6M), revenue: $275.2M (vs. est. $268.5M), gross margin: 28.5%. Q1 revenue guidance: $260M-$270M (vs. est. $292.17M), FY revenue: $1.05B-$1.15B (vs. est. $1.127B).
🔸 Bloom Energy ( $BE) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.43 (vs. est. $0.30), revenue: $572.4M (vs. est. $508.28M), gross margin: 38.3%, op. margin: 18.3%. FY revenue guidance: $1.65B-$1.85B (vs. est. $1.671B), adj. op. income: $135M-$165M (vs. est. $126.44M).
🔸 EOG Resources ( $EOG) – Q4 adj. EPS: $2.74 (vs. est. $2.57), revenue: $5.59B (vs. est. $5.95B). Oil & gas volumes and costs outperformed guidance. Announced $6.2B 2025 capital plan to grow oil production 3% and total production 6%. Entered a strategic agreement with Bapco Energies in Bahrain.
🔸 Sunrun ( $RUN) – Q4 revenue: $518.5M (vs. est. $537.9M). Installed 392 MWh of storage, up 78% YoY, exceeding guidance. Storage attachment rate: 62%. Q1 cash generation expected at $40M-$50M.
🔸 Talen Energy ( $TLN) – FY adj. EBITDA: $770M, adj. free cash flow: $283M, exceeding 2024 guidance midpoints. Reaffirmed 2025 guidance; 2026 outlook unchanged.
🔸 Tidewater ( $TDW) – Q4 revenue: $345.1M (vs. est. $340.1M), adj. EBITDA: $138.4M (in line with estimates). FY revenue guidance: $1.32B-$1.38B (vs. est. $1.44B), gross margin: 48%-50% (vs. est. 50.1%).
🔸 CubeSmart ( $CUBE) – Q4 AFFO/share: $0.68 (in line), adj. EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.46), revenue: $231.4M (vs. est. $266.4M). FY AFFO/share guidance: $2.50-$2.59 (vs. est. $2.68), EPS: $1.40-$1.49 (vs. est. $1.76).
🔸 Green Dot ( $GDOT) – Q4 EPS: $0.40 (vs. est. $0.35), revenue: $455M (vs. est. $421.9M). FY25 EPS guidance: $1.05-$1.20 (vs. est. $1.50), adj. EBITDA: $145M-$155M. Expects embedded finance and money movement to drive 2025 growth.
🔸 Redfin ( $RDFN) – Q4 EPS loss: (-$0.29) (vs. est. -$0.23), revenue up 12% YoY to $244.3M (vs. est. $242.5M). Q1 revenue guidance: $214M-$225M (vs. est. $242.8M), Q1 net loss expected at ($94M-$83M). Q4 adj. EBITDA: $2.9M.
🔸 Rocket Companies ( $RKT) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.04 (vs. est. $0.03), total revenue: $1.76B, adj. revenue: $1.2B (high end of guidance). Q1 revenue guidance: $1.17B-$1.325B.
🔸 Acadia Healthcare ( $ACHC) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.64 (vs. est. $0.71), adj. EBITDA: $153.1M (vs. est. $171.4M), revenue: $774.2M (vs. est. $779M). FY revenue guidance: $3.3B-$3.4B (vs. est. $3.441B), adj. EBITDA: $675M-$725M (vs. est. $747.9M), adj. EPS: $2.50-$2.80 (vs. est. $3.35).
🔸 Iovance Biotherapeutics ( $IOVA) – Q4 EPS loss: (-$0.26) (vs. est. -$0.27), revenue: $73.7M (vs. est. $72.2M). Reaffirms FY25 total product revenue guidance of $450M-$475M. Amtagvi total revenue: $73.7M in Q4, $164.1M in FY24.
🔸 Natera ( $NTRA) – Q4 EPS: (-$0.41) (vs. est. -$0.42), revenue: $476.1M (vs. est. $428.6M). FY revenue guidance: $1.87B-$1.95B (vs. est. $1.819B), gross margin: 60%-64%.
🔸 Pacira BioSciences ( $PCRX) – Q4 EPS: $0.96 (vs. est. $0.83), revenue: $187.3M (vs. est. $185.4M). FY25 revenue guidance: $725M-$765M (vs. est. $747.6M), gross margin: 76%-78%, R&D expense: $90M-$105M, SG&A expense: $290M-$320M.
🔸 Progyny ( $PGNY) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.42 (vs. est. $0.10), adj. EBITDA: $47.5M (vs. est. $41.8M), revenue: $298.4M (vs. est. $276.7M). Q1 revenue guidance: $300M-$318M (vs. est. $280.3M), FY revenue: $1.175B-$1.225B (vs. est. $1.159B), adj. EPS: $1.52-$1.62 (vs. est. $0.60).
🔸 RadNet ( $RDNT) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.22 (vs. est. $0.20), adj. EBITDA: $75M (vs. est. $74.8M), revenue: $477.1M (vs. est. $461.8M). FY revenue guidance: $1.825B-$1.875B (vs. est. $1.979B), adj. EBITDA: $265M-$273M (vs. est. $309.3M), FCF: $70M-$80M.
🔸 Solventum ( $SOLV) – Q4 adj. EPS: $1.41 (vs. est. $1.32), revenue: $2.07B (vs. est. $2.05B). FY adj. EPS guidance: $5.45-$5.65 (vs. est. $5.49).
🔸 TransMedics Group ( $TMDX) – Q4 EPS: $0.19 (vs. est. $0.16), revenue: $121.6M (vs. est. $110.3M), gross margin: 59%. FY revenue guidance: $530M-$552M (vs. est. $528.6M).
🔸 Boeing ( $BA) & Safran – Assessing impact of a fire at Pennsylvania's SPS Technologies factory, seeking alternative suppliers. GE Aerospace (GE) taking steps to minimize disruption.
🔸 Archer Aviation ( $ACHR) – Q4 adj. EBITDA: -$94.8M, operating expenses up 16% YoY to $124.2M, net loss: -$198.1M (+82% YoY). Q1 adj. EBITDA loss guidance: -$95M to -$110M.
🔸 MasTec ( $MTZ) – Q4 EPS: $1.44 (vs. est. $1.26), revenue: $3.4B (+3.8% YoY, vs. est. $3.32B). Q1 EPS guidance: $0.34 (vs. est. $0.39). 2025 outlook: revenue $13.45B (+9% YoY), GAAP net income: $327M-$366M, adj. EBITDA: $1.10B-$1.15B.
🔸 Mosaic ( $MOS) – Q4 adj. EPS: $0.45 (vs. est. $0.57), revenue: $2.8B (vs. est. $2.92B). Missed estimates due to lower potash prices and sales. Q4 potash sales volume: 2.2M tonnes (-15% YoY), avg. price: $199/tonne (-18%). Potash revenue: $600M (-25%), adj. core profit: $95M (-24%).
🔸 Rocket Lab USA ( $RKLB) – Q4 adj. EBITDA: -$23.2M (vs. est. -$29.1M), revenue: $84M (vs. est. $130.6M). Q1 revenue guidance: $117M-$123M (vs. est. $135.7M), adj. gross margin: 30%-32%, adj. EBITDA: -$35M.
🔸 Autodesk ( $ADSK) – Q4 adj. EPS: $2.29 (vs. est. $2.14), revenue: $1.6B (vs. est. $1.632B), adj. EBIT margin: 37%. Q1 guidance: revenue $1.6B-$1.61B (vs. est. $1.598B), EPS $2.14-$2.17 (vs. est. $2.08). FY guidance: revenue $6.895B-$6.965B, adj. op margin 36%-37%, EPS $9.34-$9.67 (vs. est. $9.24).
🔸 Dell ( $DELL) – Q4 adj. EPS: $2.68 (vs. est. $2.52), revenue: $23.9B (vs. est. $24.57B). Q1 guidance: EPS $1.65 (vs. est. $1.83), revenue $22.5B-$23.5B (vs. est. $23.72B). FY26 midpoint in line with consensus. Announced $10B stock buyback and 18% dividend increase to $2.10.
🔸 DoubleVerify ( $DV) – Q4 adj. EBITDA: $73.8M (vs. est. $76.48M), revenue: $190.6M (vs. est. $196.9M). Q1 guidance: revenue $151M-$155M (vs. est. $157.5M). FY revenue expected to grow ~10% (vs. est. 12.59%).
🔸 Duolingo ( $DUOL) – Q4 EPS: $0.28 (vs. est. $0.48), revenue: $209.6M (vs. est. $205.4M), paid subs: 9.5M, DAU: 40.5M, MAU: 116.7M. Q1 guidance: revenue $220.5M-$223.5M (vs. est. $221.07M). FY guidance: revenue $962.5M-$978.5M (vs. est. $965.88M).
🔸 Elastic ( $ESTC) – Shares surged on strong Q3 results: adj. EPS $0.63 (vs. est. $0.47), adj. op income $64M (vs. est. $55.4M), revenue $382.5M (vs. est. $368.7M). Q4 guidance: revenue $379M-$381M (vs. est. $374.2M), adj. op margin ~13.5%, adj. EPS $0.36-$0.37 (vs. est. $0.31).
🔸 HP ( $HPQ) – Q1 adj. EPS: $0.74 (in line), revenue: $13.5B (vs. est. $13.36B). Growth driven by strong personal systems segment: revenue up 5% to $9.2B, commercial PC revenue up 10%. Q2 guidance: EPS $0.75-$0.85 (vs. est. $0.86). FY EPS: $3.45-$3.75 (vs. est. $3.59).
🔸 iHeartMedia ( $IHRT) – Q4 adj. EBITDA: $246M (vs. est. $291.3M), revenue: $1.118B (vs. est. $1.166B). Q1 guidance: adj. EBITDA $100M-$110M (vs. est. $120.25M).
🔸 NetApp ( $NTAP) – Q3 EPS: $1.91 (in line), revenue: $1.64B (vs. est. $1.7B). Q4 guidance below midpoint. FY25 guidance: EPS $7.17-$7.27 (vs. est. $7.33), revenue $6.49B-$6.64B (vs. est. $6.67B).
🔸 SoundHound AI ( $SOUN) – Q4 adj. EPS: -$0.05 (vs. est. -$0.10), revenue: $34.5M (vs. est. $33.69M). FY guidance: revenue $157M-$177M (vs. est. $165.26M).
橙子晚间解读 1.23
ai agents 行情就持续了一天，现在链上p小将又聚焦在纯meme上了， 不过本轮牛市山寨的主叙事依然是ai，纯meme这种注意力经济是不具备持续性的，每个项目几乎都是一座孤岛，缺乏价值积累能力，这导致未来天花板有限，而 agents 是不断积累和进化的，未来天花板甚至会超过整个区块链行业，玩归玩，但要分清主次！
今天ai agents 走出了集体回调的行情，板块总市值从昨天的160亿跌到了现在的144亿，平均跌幅达到了10%，这波的跌幅主力是 $ai16z 生态，$eliza 跌了30%，$llm $project89 跌了28.6%, $ai16z $degenai 也跌了 25%，相比之下 $virtual 生态项目抗跌性好很多，$aixbt $virtual $luna 跌幅都在10%左右，从价格稳定性角度来看，sol系ai确实比不上base链，不过从新增小蓝筹方面，sol链更强一些，最近几个成长性很强的项目都来自sol链，$moby $lea $grift 以及 $arc 都诞生在sol链，这里我们得出结论，要是追求稳定的增长，不想承担太大的波动风险，还是在base链上找1-3亿左右的小蓝筹建仓并长持，如果想要追求更高的beta 收益，现在ai agents 最前沿的创新和最好的开发者都聚焦在sol链上，不过相对来说鱼龙混杂，需要我们有强大的自学能力，及时更新知识库，这样才有机会抓到更多的ai 金狗。虽然今天ai板块是普跌行情，市场的热度又被政治、名人或者其他形式的纯meme抢走了，但是这绝对不妨碍ai agents 才是本轮主叙事，理由我之前说过无数次，纯meme这种注意力经济是不具备持续性的，每个项目几乎都是一座孤岛，好的坏的都是同一种发展模式，最终价值无法被积累，而ai agents 类似于之前的defi summer，有很多数据是可以量化和累积的，并且随着科技的不断进步，agents 承担的功能就会越来越多，这些积累或者升级到一定程度，就会发生质变，整个板块的天花板会非常高，甚至有可能高过整个区块链行业。
不过ai 虽好，但现在正值川子上台情绪主导的行情，$trump $melania 的发射给全世界打样了，之前是马克库班说要效仿川子发行meme，赚的钱拿来捐款，然后又有古巴官方x乱发了5个 $cube meme，虽然最终都钻地了，cosmos 的创始人前几天也发了个meme，名字是 $bull ，走了一波爆拉暴跌后，今天又抬头了，价格从底部上来又是5x；今天最大的主菜是 $stonks ，一个号称是纳斯达克cto的账号发的meme，很多人将信将疑，然后这个meme又被一个纳斯达克官推转推了，这直接就引爆市场，大户散户集体冲进来，然后纳斯达克官推居然把转推给删了，dev同时rug，市值瞬间从50m砸到1m，把大家割的死去活来，本来大家以为这个项目gg了，结果大户开始疯狂加池子，然后价格开始走第二波飞升，目前从低点的1m拉到了20m了，算是起死回生了，总之这剧情很跌宕起伏，能赚到钱的都是猛人；再一个是 $vine ，这个是曾被马斯克提及并收购的短视频平台Vine创始人发币，前几天马斯克还回复网友说x正考虑重启vine，加上之前传言马斯克要收购tiktok，并且川普还公开表示持开放态度，这使得vine的想象空间变得巨大，$vine 市值今天最高冲到接近3亿，然后还被bitget加入了seed名单中，这个是今天最大的金狗；还有个McAfee遗孀转发的 meme币 $Ainti，直接开创了死人法币叙事，这个今天最高也冲到1亿市值，目前回调下来还有32m的市值，可以预见的是后面会有更多的家属以死去的名人发行meme来纪念（收割），比如科比、迈克尔杰克逊之类的，短时间内名人或者政治meme肯定是市场最热焦点，大家p的时候一定要控制好仓位，即使确定性很强的，是官方账号正式发币也有被盗号的可能，切勿梭哈赌博。
另外最近telegram上诈骗连接特别多，今早还有群友因为五点电报弹出的safeguard 直接被黑客植入了木马，然后把sol和eth账号都搬空了，另外使用gmgn 这种软件官方机器人时也要注意核查网址准确性，以前聊天界面上方常年有个更新最新版本的广告，那个也不要点，都是诈骗，现在大家使用机器人买卖是很普遍的，所以骗子黑客都聚焦在这里，有的骗术是防不胜防的，所以大家千万不要用主钱包交易土狗，也不要向任何平台泄露私钥，常在河边走哪有不湿鞋，在安全这方面一定不要犯懒。
#Downgrades - Sep 13, 2024
$ASAI: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $9.10 (from $13)
$CPRI: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $41
$CUBE: UBS Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $54 (from $53)
$FULC: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $4
$GMRN: Barclays Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $133 (from $181)
$HAL: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $37 (from $44)
$MRNA: JPMorgan Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $70 (from $88)
$MRNA: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $65 (from $120)
$MRNA: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform
$NBR: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $75 (from $110)
$RLJ: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $9 (from $11)
$VOYA: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Strong Buy