📉 SEPTEMBER FOMC PREVIEW Markets on Kalshi are pricing the Fed’s move with near certainty: • 92% odds of a 25bp cut • 8% odds of a cut larger than 25bp • Just 3% odds the Fed holds steady Analyst Consensus: • 30 of 32 analysts expect a 25bp cut. • Standard Chartered & SocGen call for a 50bp cut. • Possible dovish dissents from Miran, Waller, Bowman. Low risk of a “hold” dissent. Bank Views: • BofA: Focus on Powell’s tone; sees Dec cut, then more in 2026. • Citi: “Risks skew dovish.” Sees Miran & Bowman pushing for 50bp. • Deutsche: Cuts as “risk management.” Sees 25bp cuts in Sep, Oct, Dec. • Goldman: Labor softening key; QT could end in Oct. 25bp cuts in Oct, Dec; 50bp possible if jobs worsen. • JPMorgan: 2–3 dovish dissents for 50bp+. Sees 25bp cuts Oct & Dec, then pause. • Wells Fargo: Labor weakness drives cuts. Sees 25bp cuts Oct, Dec, Mar, Jun. https://t.co/raouV8RVcY