🚨MACRO ECONOMIC CROSSWINDS & CRYPTO MARKETS: FED RATE CUTS, CHINA TARIFFS & 2026 ELECTION IMPACT Key data points driving market sentiment this week: - Fed rate cut probabilities (currently pricing ~50bps by EOY) - US GDP Q2 advance estimate (Thu) - Core PCE inflation (Fri) - JOLTS job openings (Tue) - Consumer confidence (Tue) Tariff dynamics: - China's exemption of US ethane imports signals potential thaw (watch chemical sector) - US tariffs likely to push inflation higher, but potential Trump tax cuts could offset (remember $200K threshold discussion) Election cycle analysis: - 2026 midterms historically show market volatility 6-9 months prior - Current positioning suggests risk-off sentiment may emerge by Q1 2026 - Watch congressional gridlock scenarios post-election Market correlations: - Russell 2000 continues tracking altcoin performance (~0.76 R² past 4 years) - Liquidity conditions remain primary driver for speculative assets - QT taper timeline critical for small-cap/crypto liquidity injection Strategic take: Macro uncertainty creating bifurcated market - institutions positioning for soft landing while retail flows remain cautious. Data-dependent Fed means every print matters more than usual this cycle. Election year policies could amplify existing trends rather than reverse them.