We need to talk about Kevin... ...
What is good, exaggerated and missing from presumptive Fed chair, Kevin Warsh's views
Plus what on earth is going on with IMF trade forecasts - US tariffs have no effect??
Trump's trade war hits small businesses:
“Basically, what we’re doing is eating our inventory and hoping that it will last us until this gets settled,” said the CEO of Basic Fun, a Boca Raton, Fla.,-based seller of children’s toys.
“If it doesn’t, we’ll be out of business.”
The American capital flight trade is back. Stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all sharply down. Gold way up. The pattern is new to US but familiar in emerging markets that are becoming submerging markets.
This is quite crazy.
According to former Assistant Secretary of Defense Chas Freeman (one of the rare senior US officials that I admire), the Trump administration couldn't even explain to the Japanese negotiating team what they were looking to achieve with the tariffs.
Here's
The relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields isn't quite an iron law in finance, but it is a very close link which has become completely severed (liberated, if you will) in the past week and a half. I've never seen anything like it.
Great chart from the FT here.
