This year, I wish you less — less information, less food, less entertainment, less communication, less stimulation. You already have too much of all that, and it stands in the way of your serenity, health, sleep, and creativity. Merry Christmas! ☦️
Domino's Pizza (1.4 miles from the Pentagon) is experiencing an extreme spike in activity at 333%. Papa Johns Pizza (2.3 miles from Pentagon) also reports high activity at 178%. DEFCON level is 4.
Random thoughts on 2026
- The main signal I am watching for is BTC making meaningful moves against equities and Gold. 2025 was rough because you took extra volatility risk for underperformance. Need to see that change to be meaningfully bullish.
- Most altcoins remain a non
My annual letter:
This year I discuss corgis, compute, and Cold War; the Texas State Fair; DSA; Neue Sachlichkeit; disfiguring the physical past and the end of history; Germanic obedience; Antichrist; wisecracks; Pascal’s Wager; romantasy; and croissants.
(NEW POST) Two Kites Dancing In A Hurricane
> early startup success
> why successful companies fail
> how do we begin to fix prediction markets
link to full piece below
Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now
Let’s put a few things together…Burry’s liquidation letter, his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers, and his “me then, me now” Big Short meme and he’s basically spelling out one story.
He thinks we’re in an earnings
The problem with ICM Launchpads:
I had a call with a founder of a project yesterday and the topic of ICM launchpads came up.
The issue with ICM launchpads and the tokens launched under them:
- The success of the project launching is pegged to the success of the launchpad
