#Solana - Unbiased Analysis
Solana hit a new all-time high of $295 this cycle but failed to hold above it.
A massive bearish divergence is in play on the weekly chart, and the price is now testing a key horizontal support that has held strong for the past year.
The 1.618 Fibonacci support is also at $117, making it a critical zone that must hold.
Looking at the RSI, it's currently at 40, a level that has acted as solid support in the past.
From here, Two scenarios can play out:
Red : A bounce that eventually fades, leading to a slow bleed and breakdown of both the horizontal support and the 0.618 level. That wouldn’t be a good sign
Blue : A strong bounce from current levels followed by continuation into a new ath, as RSI is also having plenty of room to run higher.
#Bitcoin Hasn't Peaked Yet?
Each cycle, we've seen a sharp 30-40% pullback before the final leg up and the cycle peak.
BTC has already dropped 30% from $109K. This is the first major correction after breaking the ATH.
If you look at previous cycles, we saw something similar in 2017 and 2021 before the final leg up.
This means that this might just be a regular cycle correction, and the next leg up could be coming soon.
#Bitcoin $200K+ Sounds Crazy, But Is It? 🤔
If you look at Bitcoin's yearly chart, it has followed a simple pattern for the past three cycles:
1) Bottom
2) Recovery
3) Up Only
4) Bear Market
After the bear market, Bitcoin finds a bottom and then prints a new ATH in the recovery year. This is followed by a massive pump in the "Up Only" year.
Right now, we are in the "Up Only" Year, and the big green candle is still pending.
Each time, the "Up Only" yearly candle has always closed higher than the previous year's candle.
If this plays out, even in the worst-case scenario, we should see a new ATH this year.
A little push in the current yearly candle could easily take Bitcoin above $200K+
The bear market should start with the next yearly candle (2026)
#Bitcoin - The bull run is over !
A lot of people think that the bull run is over and the bear market has already started.
But on HTF, Bitcoin still looks strong and there’s nothing to worry about for now.
Even if you're super bearish, the best way to invalidate that bias would be if BTC reclaims the previous range low.
If that happens, be ready to react.
