Years ago, you were Chinese
Ray Dalio’s observations on Anglo decline seem overstated, perhaps bc he speaks from within that perspective. He is obviously right about the UK, but to even discuss the UK and US in one breath is archaic. In Beijing itself, the currently fashionable theory appears to be the G7 -> G2 power architecture transition, which is to say that two complementary superpowers decide everything.
After this period of posturing ends, the relationship likely settles back to core cooperation on shared interests. Tariffs function chiefly to exert suzerainty on American allies, not adversaries. American investment into Chinese equities is surging again. TikTok matter is settled amicably.
The erosion of European hard and soft power seems to me the more clear and permanent trend. On hard power the substitute is America, while on soft power it is China. European clean energy agenda, classical music, even its architecture, are now China’s domain. European geopolitical interests are now set in Washington. So actually America is entering, not exiting, its period of true empire. It may seem quaint in the future to remember a time when a European product could compete with an American or Chinese one, or when the G7 mattered, or when Europe could exert cultural leadership, or when the question was who would join the EU next.
Europe functions as the summering location for both sides, as well as the migration centre for those displaced from global conflicts. It will also function as a diplomacy hub. It is not a coincidence that first Geneva and then Madrid served as sites for China-US discussion. It is a recognition of what is the new neutral ground. Ironically this will usher in a period of increased multilateralism on things that actually matter.
Next five sports for LA 2028 Olympics are:
Baseball, cricket, flag football, lacrosse, squash
Of these, I am most bullish internationalisation of baseball. It is the best stadium spectator sport. And has the best statistical complexity and richness. Also East Asians can actually play it on a world-class level (unlike soccer)
China Baseball League (mainland) in the 2000s was too early for its time, would probably work in 2030
Here's an interview with @machibigbrother (ft.@bobaoppa).
A casual conversation about his crypto journey, Hyperliquid & Pumpfun, casino gambling and some of his most memorable trades.
Show notes and link to full version on youtube below.
In Japan there is mukoyoshi, when a family will legally adopt an adult who then runs the family business in addition to marrying the eldest daughter.
I once met a Scandinavian guy who had moved to Shanghai as an 18yo in the 2000s and became adopted son and scion of a v powerful family.
There will be interesting intersections between eugenics, adoption, surrogacy, and business in this century. The first trillionaire will likely be an adopted son conceived via eugenics and born via surrogacy.
This is all pretty bad if accurate
1) many liquid vcs panic sold ico allo. VCs have to buy, not sell, just to obtain their lost tokens and percent of network
2) if creator coins get traction, pump will double
3) buybacks are pure value accrual, does not matter if anyone likes them or not (altho obv they do)
AI slop reply guys getting oneshotted by the Iryna Zarutska murder
