早晨看到了贝莱德收购了美国电力企业 $AES 的信息，当然现在还在谈判阶段，收购还没有完成，但这件事本身已经说明了在 AI 高速发展的阶段，稀缺的不仅仅是存储，还有电，而且要说“电”才是一切算力的基础。 那么贝莱德收购 AES 的理由或者说贝莱德对“电”感兴趣的理由大概率是以下几种： 1. AI 时代的“刚需”正在从芯片转向电力与并网 GPU 和 内存虽然是稀缺产品，但可以通过扩大产能等方式实现，但电力不足、并网需要排队、变电站容量不够，算力就是笑话了，而且电力的获取相比 GPU 和 内存难度要高的多，需要的成本也高的多。 2. 电力相当于算力的“收费站” 芯片是物理构架，模型是上层应用，但所有路径最终都得落回“瓦特”。当数据中心扩张成为长期趋势，电力资产就像高速公路收费站，需求更刚性、议价更持久，而且越扩张越需要更多的基础设施投入。民间的投入就更难。 3. 电力是基础设施的“现金流” 电力生意的形态并不是因为电价的升高，而是它然适合做成“长期合同以及可预测现金流”的资产，只要有算力的需求，电就是必备品。比如 AES 最近就跟 Google 签了 20 年的供电协议。 4. AI 需要的并不仅仅是“电”，而是“稳定电” AI 数据中心是需要 7x24 的稳定负载，而且随时可能扩容。所以需要的并不仅仅是电力本身，而是需要可交付的电，最好还是可保证的电。 5. 当“电”成为底层之后，下一层稀缺就轮到“电源链”（题外话） 这里的“链”并不是区块链，而是一条链路。很多小伙伴聊电力瓶颈的时候，第一反应是发电厂，并网和变电站，但 AI 真正需要的电并不是接上就能用，是一路被加工后才能变成算力。 比如从电网到机房，要做一次大的电能变换，高压进来，低压出去，从机房到机柜，需要解决配电架构、冗余、UPS、PDU、母排，从机柜到服务器，要把 AC 变 DC、把 12V 或 48V 变成 GPU 和 HBM 真正能使用的电。 再往上游到晶圆厂的设备端，刻蚀、沉积这些工艺本质上是用极其精细、可控的电去驱动等离子体，电不稳不是机器慢一点，而是良率下降、成本增加。 这也是为什么 Advanced Energy $AEIS （和 AES 是两回事）这种公司会在 AI 时代变得更关键，电很重要，但如何“让电变得可用”，本身就是电的配套设施。 说人话就是，当市场开始意识到“电”才是算力的地基，大家一定会关注“电”的来源，但“电”怎么被变成算力，则是隐蔽且关键的一层。这也是为什么我觉得这类“电源链”公司值得被重新审视的原因。 @bitget VIP，费率更低，福利更狠

Earnings Summary (Q4 & Guidance) 📊 Beats & Positive Outlook 🟢 ✅ HubSpot ( $HUBS): EPS $2.32 (est. $2.19), revenue $703.2M (est. $673.3M). Q1 & FY revenue guidance slightly below estimates. ✅ MKS Instruments ( $MKSI): EPS $2.15 (est. $1.95), revenue $935M (est. $914.2M). Q1 guidance mixed. ✅ Pega Systems ( $PEGA): EPS $1.61 (est. $1.46), revenue $490.8M (est. $470.7M). FY guidance slightly below estimates. ✅ Q2 Holdings ( $QTWO): EBITDA $37.6M (est. $35.5M), revenue $183M (est. $179.9M). Guidance above estimates. ✅ Sony ( $SONY): Raises profit forecast 2% to 1.34T yen ($8.7B). Gaming unit profit +37%. Sold 9.5M PS5 units (vs. 8.2M YoY). ✅ Dutch Bros ( $BROS): EPS $0.07 (est. $0.02), revenue $342.8M (est. $317.8M). FY revenue & EBITDA guidance above estimates. ✅ MGM Resorts ( $MGM): EPS $0.45 (est. $0.30), revenue $4.3B (est. $4.27B). Strong demand in 2025, BetMGM expected to be profitable. ✅ Royal Caribbean ( $RCL): $1B buyback & 36% dividend increase. ✅ Service Corp. ( $SCI): EPS $1.06 (est. $1.05), revenue $1.093B (est. $1.08B). Invested $181M in funeral home/cemetery acquisitions. FY EPS guidance $3.70-$4.00 (est. $3.93). ✅ Pilgrim’s Pride ( $PPC): EPS $1.35 (est. $1.15), EBITDA $525.7M (est. $487.85M). Revenue below estimates at $4.372B (est. $4.589B). ✅ Molson Coors ( $TAP): EPS $1.30 (est. $1.13), revenue $2.74B (est. $2.7B). FY net sales expected to grow. ✅ AppLovin ( $APP): EPS $1.73 (est. $1.24), revenue $1.373B (est. $1.264B). Guides Q1 revenue $1.355-1.385B (est. $1.321B). ✅ Cisco ( $CSCO): EPS $0.94 (est. $0.91), revenue $14B (est. $13.87B). Increases dividend & buyback. Raises FY25 EPS & revenue outlook. ✅ Cognex ( $CGNX): EPS $0.20 (est. $0.16), revenue $230M (est. $220.7M). Q1 revenue guidance below estimates. ✅ Deere ( $DE): EPS $3.19 (est. $3.11); revenue $8.51B (-30% y/y, but beats est. $7.89B). FY25 sales decline expected in all divisions. ✅ Advanced Energy ( $AEIS): EPS $1.30 (est. $1.10); revenue $415.4M (est. $394.2M). Q1 guidance slightly above estimates. ✅ Williams Energy ( $WMB): EPS $0.47 (est. $0.45). Raises FY25 EBITDA guidance to $7.45B-$7.85B. ✅ Paycom Software ( $PAYC): EPS $2.32 (est. $1.97); revenue $493.8M (est. $408.8M). FY EBITDA & revenue guidance in-line. ✅ Reddit ( $RDDT): EPS $0.36 (est. $0.25); revenue $427.7M (+71% y/y, est. $405.5M). Q1 guidance above estimates. ✅ Robinhood ( $HOOD): EPS $1.01 (est. $0.52); revenue $1.01B (est. $951.8M). AUC up 88% y/y, user revenue up 102%. ✅ Curtiss-Wright ( $CW): EPS $3.27 (est. $3.09); revenue $824M (est. $789.6M). Strong FY25 guidance. ✅ Casella Waste ( $CWST): EPS $0.41 (est. $0.16); revenue $427.5M (est. $419.5M). FY25 revenue & EBITDA guidance above estimates. ✅ Hubbell ( $HUBB): Announces $500M share buyback. Mixed Results 🟡 ⚠️ Antero Resources ( $AR): EPS $0.26 (miss, est. $0.29); revenue $1.194B (beat, est. $1.17B). Raised production targets, lowered capital budget. ⚠️ GE HealthCare ( $GEHC): EPS $1.45 (est. $1.26); revenue $5.32B (in-line). Sees FY25 revenue up 2-3%, cautious on China tariffs. ⚠️ GXO Logistics ( $GXO): EPS $1.00 (est. $0.94); revenue $3.3B (est. $3.22B). FY25 EPS guidance below estimates. ⚠️ Manitowoc ( $MTW): EPS $0.10 (miss, est. $0.12); revenue $596M (miss, est. $600.1M). FY25 EPS guidance below consensus. ⚠️ Equinix ( $EQIX): AFFO/share $7.92 (est. $8.09), revenue $2.261B (est. $2.274B). FY guidance below estimates. ⚠️ Trade Desk ( $TTD): EPS $0.59 (est. $0.56), revenue $741M (est. $758.9M). Q1 guidance below estimates. ⚠️ Nestlé ( $NSRGY): Sales 91.35B francs (-1.8%), profit 10.88B francs (-2.9%). Growth driven by price hikes but warns of lower 2025 margins. ⚠️ Nissan ( $NSANY) & Honda (HMC): Terminated merger talks from December 2023. ⚠️ Rollins ( $ROL): EPS $0.23 (est. $0.23), revenue $832M (est. $817.5M). Operating income missed estimates ($151M vs. $160.4M). ⚠️ Wyndham Hotels ( $WH): EPS $1.04 (est. $0.99), revenue $341M (est. $344.47M). Guides FY RevPAR growth 2-3%. FY EPS $4.66-$4.78 (est. $4.78). Misses & Weak Guidance 🔴 ❌ 10X Genomics ( $TXG): EPS (-$0.40) (miss, est. -$0.11); revenue $165M (in-line). FY25 revenue guidance slightly below consensus. ❌ Albemarle ( $ALB): EPS (-$1.09) (miss, est. -$0.67); revenue $1.2B (miss, est. $1.34B). Plans cost cuts & production shifts. ❌ Tyler Technologies ( $TYL): EPS $1.49 (est. $1.61), revenue $541.1M (est. $540.5M). FY revenue guidance below estimates. ❌ Fastly ( Earnings Summary (Q4 & Guidance) 📊): EPS (-$0.03) (est. $0.00), revenue $140.58M (est. $138.63M). FY25 EPS & revenue guidance below estimates. Color Code: 🟢 Beat ✅ | 🟡 Mixed ⚠️ | 🔴 Miss ❌