Notes
小鹏最近动作很多，还挺耀眼的 $XPEV
月底也临近小鹏 Q4 财报的公布了
想冲股票的朋友，不妨看看这篇文章：
1️⃣产品销量与毛利率向好
(a) 小鹏 2026 年计划推出十余款新车
(b) Q3 毛利率达到 20.1%，现金储备 483 亿，并且获得了工行 100 亿的授信
2️⃣多元化业务进展可观
(a) 固态电池、机器人、智驾以及 AI 眼镜都取得了不错的成果。
(b) 出海业务进展理想，并加入了 #Robotaxi
(c) 预计年底人形机器人量产、飞行汽车等三大业务将落地
小鹏目前给我的感觉越来越不像个纯粹的车企了，更加多元化。虽还没达到特斯拉的级别，但也有点“小特斯拉”的味道
从技术面来看，日线级别已经到了支撑低位，距离顶部有 50% 的空间，可以考虑一下要不要上车。
不过，以下是一些风险点：
1️⃣新能源车市场百家争鸣，且都在打价格战（小米新款 SU7 降价 2 万且基础配置不变，是一个不小的对手）
2️⃣机器人和飞行汽车，到底能不能量产交付、真实落地还不确定，毕竟这两个领域投入研发大，回报周期长。
所以本次月底的财报，请各位重点盯紧：
📊毛利率、单车利润、Q1 交付指南和 AI 落地的时间表
📅 02월 07일 (토) 00:03 기준 | 주요 소식 정리
1️⃣ 연준 금리 인하, 고용·물가 지표에 발목 잡힌다?
• 글로벌 금융시장은 연방준비제도(Fed)의 추가 금리 인하 시점을 가늠하며 불확실성 속에 놓여있음. 특히 미봉된 미국 고용 및 인플레이션 데이터 발표가 이번 주 시장의 핵심적인 관심사로 부상함. 이는 연준의 통화정책 방향을 결정짓는 가장 직접적인 단서가 될 것이라는 판단임.
• 투자자들은 이 지표들을 통해 인플레이션 둔화 속도와 노동 시장의 견고성을 면밀히 분석하려 할 것임. 동시에 유로존과 영국에서는 국내총생산(GDP) 데이터 발표가 예정되어 유럽 경제의 현주소를 평가할 기회가 됨. 아시아 역시 주요 성장 지표와 각국의 정치적 동향이 복합적으로 얽혀 있어 시장 변동성을 키울 전망임.
• 결국 이 모든 데이터는 각국 중앙은행의 금리 결정에 지대한 영향을 미치며, 통화정책의 불확실성을 가중시키는 요인임. 미국 금리 인하 기대감이 후퇴할 경우 달러 강세 압력이 가해지고, 이는 신흥국 자본 유출 위험을 높일 수 있음. 단순한 지표 확인을 넘어, 시장은 이를 통해 경기 침체 가능성과 자산 배분 전략 재검토의 근거를 찾으려는 움직임을 보일 것임.
• 관련 섹터: 채권 시장, 외환 시장, 금융주, 경기민감주, 성장주, 수출주
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2️⃣ 미국의 전기차 전략 수정과 중국의 글로벌 시장 장악 심화 가능성
• 미국 완성차 업체들이 전기차 부문 투자를 축소하고 고마진 내연기관 트럭과 SUV에 재집중하는 모습임. 이는 예상보다 더딘 전기차 수요 성장세, 미흡한 충전 인프라, 그리고 엄격한 수익성 압박에 대한 현실적 대응으로 분석됨.
• 이 같은 미국의 전략 선회는 결과적으로 중국 제조사들에게 글로벌 전기차 시장 내 입지를 더욱 공고히 할 기회를 제공할 뿐임. 중국은 이미 거대한 내수 시장을 발판 삼아 생산 규모를 극대화했으며, 가격 경쟁력과 정부 지원을 등에 업고 전기차 수출 확대를 지속할 것이라는 관측이 지배적임.
• 서방 국가들이 전기차 전환 속도 조절에 나서면서, 중국은 글로벌 전기차 공급망과 기술 표준에서 핵심 주도권을 강화할 것이 자명함. 이는 장기적으로 주요 시장에서의 가격 경쟁 심화를 유발하고 서구 완성차 기업들의 전략적 우위를 침식할 수 있어, 투자자들에게는 산업 구조 변화와 지정학적 리스크에 대한 냉철한 분석이 요구되는 시점임.
• 관련 섹터: 전기차, 배터리, 자동차 부품, 내연기관차, 광물 및 소재
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3️⃣ 미국의 동맹 전략 변화와 러-중 위협 증폭에 대한 냉철한 시각
• 노르웨이 정보기관은 최근 연례 위협 평가 보고서를 통해, 미국의 전략적 초점 변화가 러시아와 중국의 세력 확대를 용이하게 할 수 있음을 경고한 바 있음. 이는 잠재적으로 서방 동맹의 결속력을 약화시키고 새로운 지정학적 불안정성을 초래할 수 있다는 분석임.
• 특히 보고서는 미국이 국내 문제나 다른 지역으로 주의를 돌릴 경우, 유럽과 북극 지역에서 러시아의 군사적 압박과 중국의 경제적, 정치적 영향력 증대가 가속화될 수 있다고 지적함. 이는 NATO 동맹국의 안보 태세와 국방 예산에도 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중대한 사안으로 해석됨.
• 이러한 지정학적 변화는 글로벌 에너지 공급망과 무역 경로에 상당한 불확실성을 가중시키는 바, 투자자들에게는 국방, 사이버 보안, 그리고 원자재 섹터에 대한 새로운 리스크와 기회 요인으로 작용할 가능성을 시사함. 서방 국가들의 연합 방위 능력 약화는 지정학적 리스크 프리미엄 상승으로 이어질 수 있음.
• 관련 섹터: 국방 산업, 사이버 보안, 원자재, 에너지, 해운
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4️⃣ 신전략무기감축조약 종언, 새로운 핵 군비 경쟁의 서막인가
• 미 국무장관이 2026년 2월 5일부로 신전략무기감축조약(New START)의 만료를 공언함. 이는 냉전 시대의 산물인 해당 조약이 현재의 다자간 핵 위협 환경에 더 이상 부합하지 않는다는 판단에 기인함. 기존 질서의 해체를 공식화하는 중대한 선언임.
• 국무장관의 발언은 "미국에 불리한 조건을 받아들이거나 합의를 위한 합의만을 추구하며 조약 불이행을 묵인하지 않을 것"이라는 강경한 입장을 명확히 함. 이는 특정 국가의 조약 위반 행위에 대한 불만과 함께, 중국 등 신흥 핵 강대국들을 포함하는 포괄적인 새로운 핵 통제 체제 구축을 염두에 둔 포석으로 해석됨.
• 조약 만료는 글로벌 핵 군비 경쟁의 재점화를 사실상 용인하는 조치임. 각국은 안보 강화를 명분으로 핵 역량 증강을 추진할 것이며, 이는 국제 안보 환경의 불안정성을 극대화함. 투자 관점에서는 방위 산업의 장기적 성장 동력으로 작용하는 한편, 지정학적 리스크 증가로 인한 전반적인 시장 불확실성 증폭 요인이 될 것임.
• 관련 섹터: 방위산업, 항공우주, 에너지 섹터 내 변동성
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출처 : CNBC, WSJ, 블룸버그
#미국주식 #속보 #경제 $GD #한국항공우주 $LMT $F $GLD $NIO #LG에너지솔루션 $LI #현대차 #LIG넥스원 #SK하이닉스 $BA $SPY $TLT #한화에어로스페이스 #삼성전자 $NOC $TSLA $XPEV #SK온 #기아 $DXY #삼성SDI $RTX $GM
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -11.68%
🔸 $MSTR: -9.99%
🔸 $BABA: -7.52%
🔸 $TSLA: -7.15%
🔸 $NIO: -6.79%
🔸 $NVDA: -6.35%
🔸 $AMD: -4.40%
🔸 $APPL: -4.23%
🔸 $INTC: -3.88%
🔸 $META: -3.71%
🔸 $AMZN: -3.12%
🔸 $GOOGL: -2.69%
🔸 $BA: -2.42%
🔸 $NFLX: -2.36%
🔸 $MSFT: -2.07%
PREMKT
🔸 $XPEV: -14.20%
🔸 $BABA: -11.45%
🔸 $MSTR: -10.73%
🔸 $NIO: -9.25%
🔸 $TSLA: -8.59%
🔸 $NVDA: -7.05%
🔸 $AMD: -6.02%
🔸 $META: -5.19%
🔸 $INTC: -4.33%
🔸 $AMZN: -4.27%
🔸 $BA: -4.20%
🔸 $NFLX: -3.89%
🔸 $APPL: -3.80%
🔸 $GOOGL: -3.70%
🔸 $MSFT: -3.62%
Premkt
$VIX: 38
$BABA: -8.29%
$JD: -7.77%
$XPEV: -7.49%
$AMZN: -5.40%
$AMD: -5.29%
$INTC: -5.22%
$TSLA: -5.13%
$AAPL: -4.73%
$NIO: -4.55%
$NKE: -4.41%
$MSFT: -4.38%
$META: -4.25%
$RIVN: -3.82%
$NVDA: -3.80%
$GOOGL: -3.07%
$AMC: -2.27%
$XPEV: CITI UPGRADES TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL - PT $29 (FROM $13.70)
Volume Upgrade: We raise our 2025/26E volume forecast from 260k/330k to 480k/580k units, driven by:
🔸 Strong order intake in February.
🔸 Launch of 2-3 new BEVs, 1 EREV, and facelifts in 2025, extending model cycles.
🔸 P7+ and MONA03 expected to reach 20-24k units/month, supported by strong EV demand and export growth.
Valuation: We increase our 2025E P/S multiple to 2.5x (from 1.9x) and TP to US$29.00/HK$113.00 (from US$13.70/HK$53.30), reflecting strong launches and AI/Robotics potential.
Upgrade to Buy on robust volume growth, 2026E earnings turnaround, and AI/Robotics upside.
MORNING BID
🔸 QXO ( $QXO) is in talks to buy Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) for $11B ($124.35/share in cash).
🔸 Uber ( $UBER) & Lyft ( $LYFT) dominate North American ride-hailing, but Bolt aims to challenge them, per The Information.
🔸 Xpeng ( $XPEV) plans to mass-produce its modular flying car by 2026, said Chairman He Xiaopeng.
🔸 Yum China ( $YUM) appointed Adrian Ding as CFO, removing his interim title after a search following Andy Yeung’s resignation.
🔸 Franco-Nevada ( $FNV) Q4 adj. EPS $0.95 (est. $0.89), revenue $321M (+6% y/y, est. $304.44M); expects 2025 revenue to rise 25%+ with gold at $2,800/oz.
Upgrades:
🔸 Grainger ( $GWW), Fastenal (FAST) → Outperform (from Market Perform) at William Blair.
🔸 Knight-Swift ( $KNX) → Neutral (from Sell) at Citigroup.
Downgrade:
🔸 Sherwin-Williams ( $SHW) → Hold (from Buy) at Jefferies.
🔸 Beam Therapeutics ( $BEAM) prices 16.2M shares at $28.48 each.
🔸 DexCom ( $DXCM) gets FDA warning after inspections but sees no material impact on FY25 revenue.
🔸 Nordisk ( $NVO) reports REDEFINE 2 trial met its primary endpoint, showing significant weight loss with CagriSema in 1,206 patients over 68 weeks.
🔸 Trevi ( $TRVI) Phase 2a RIVER trial: Haduvio reduced 24-hour cough frequency by 67% (57% placebo-adjusted, p<0.0001).
🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH) shares rose as Mantle Ridge built a $1B+ stake, seeing them as undervalued (WSJ).
Upgrades:
🔸 DocuSign ( $DOCU) → Neutral (from Underweight) at JPMorgan.
Deals:
🔸 NVent ( $NVT) to buy Avail’s electrical products for $975M, expects EPS boost in year one.
🔸 Perion ( $PERI) expands buyback program to $125M.
🔸 Taiwan Semi ( $TSM) Feb revenue NT$260.01B (+43% y/y, -11% m/m); Jan-Feb total NT$553.30B (+39% y/y).
Weekend Updates in Subs:
Video: #BTC/proxies-Securing gains strategy
Charts: Speculative paths and near term targets
Expansion: $BTC, $GME
Bottom formations: $CLSK, Miners/#BTC, $ACB, $TLRY, $CGC, $LCID
On-going corrective: $SMCI, $AMD, $TSLA, $LMND
Subscriber request: $GRAB, $XPEV
DAILY RECAP
**BYD Co. ( $BYDDF)** reported a 67.8% y/y increase in November vehicle sales, reaching 506,804 units compared to 301,903 last year. Year-to-date sales hit 3.76M units, up from 2.68M last year.
**Gap ( $GAP)** received an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan after a CEO and CFO meeting.
**Li Auto Inc. ( $LI)** delivered 48,740 vehicles in November 2024, a y/y increase of 18.8%, with a 2024 total of 441,995 and cumulative deliveries at 1,075,359.
**NIO Inc. ( $NIO)** saw a 28.9% y/y rise in November deliveries to 20,575 vehicles, split between its NIO and ONVO brands.
**Stellantis ( $STLA)** announced CEO Carlos Tavares' resignation, effective immediately, with a new CEO search set to conclude in 2025's first half.
**XPeng Inc. ( $XPEV)** delivered 30,895 Smart EVs in November, up 54% y/y and 29% m/m, with strong sales of the MONA M03 and P7+.
**Core Scientific Inc. ( $CORZ)** plans to issue $500M in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031.
**IREN Limited ( $IREN)** boosted its self-mining capacity by 33% to 28 EH/s with new substation energization.
**LendingClub ( $LC)** was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan due to fintech sector concerns.
**Mara Holdings ( $MARA)** is set to offer $700M in zero-coupon convertible senior notes privately.
**Toast ( $TOST)** received a downgrade to Neutral from Goldman Sachs, citing high valuation and visibility issues.
**Upstart Holdings ( $UPST)** was downgraded to underweight by JP Morgan.
**Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO)** was downgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley.
**Nevro ( $NVRO)** saw a downgrade to Underweight by Morgan Stanley.
**Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM)** got an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley.
**Cloudflare ( $NET)** was upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley, optimistic about future growth.
**SentinelOne ( $S)** was downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, due to cybersecurity sector concerns.
**U.S. to implement new export restrictions on Monday targeting China's semiconductor sector**, affecting companies like Naura Technology Group, potentially impacting shares of $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC.
#Downgrades - Nov 21, 2024
• $ADNT: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $24 (from $30)
• $GRAB: China Renaissance Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $5.40
• $RBC: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $335 (from $330)
• $SHOP: DZ Bank Downgrades to Sell from Hold
• $TRV: Janney Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $280
• $ULTA: William Blair Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
• $WMT: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $91
• $XPEV: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $12.50 (from $11.70)
#Upgrades - Nov 20, 2024
• $AVAV: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $230 (from $240)
• $CHWY: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $40 (from $24)
• $ENR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $39 (from $32)
• $GLPI: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $54 (from $49)
• $INSP: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $255 (from $220)
• $LMND: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from underweight - PT $42 (from $23)
• $NWL: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $10 (from $8)
• $SEDG: Guggenheim Upgrades to Neutral from Sell
• $XPEV: CMB International Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $16 (from $8)
MORNING RECAP
• $LOW Q3: EPS $2.89 (beat consensus $2.81), sales $20.2B (beat consensus $19.92B); Q3 comp sales -1.1% due to weak DIY demand, offset by storm sales and growth in Pro and online. Revised full-year outlook: sales $83B-$83.5B, EPS $11.80-$11.90.
• $ADM: Q3 profit fell due to weak North American crush margins; Nutrition segment expects better Q4 but not as high as Q3 2024.
• $CTRN: Appointed Ken Seipel as CEO; Q3 sales $179.1M, comp sales up 5.7%.
• $WEN: Ken Cook appointed as CFO, effective December 2, 2024.
• $XPEV: Q3 revenue $1.39B, above estimates; EPS loss of $1.90, worse than expected $1.71 loss. Q4 revenue forecast at $2.09B-$2.21B; launched P7+ sedan.
• $ACM increases buyback to $1B; Q4 EPS $1.27, revenue $4.11B, slightly below consensus. FY25 EPS forecast $5.00-$5.20.
• $AMCR to acquire $BERY in $8.4B stock deal at a 10% premium.
• $AVAV acquiring BlueHalo in $4.1B stock deal.
Oil prices dip as Johan Sverdrup field restarts post-outage.
• $ERII launches $50M stock repurchase.
• $NPSCY engages with $X stakeholders to push for $15B acquisition.
• $SYAXF to merge with $PLL in an all-stock deal, valuing the new entity at $623M.
• $SYM Q4 operating income exceeds expectations; sets Q1 revenue guidance at $495-515M.
U.S. defense stocks rise following Russia's updated nuclear policy and threats.
• $DOC ups 2024 FFO guidance to $1.80-$1.82, citing strong portfolio performance.
• $INCY stock drops after pausing a phase 2 study due to preclinical findings.
• $MDT Q2 revenue up 5.2% to $8.4B, raises FY25 EPS outlook slightly.
• $OMCL issues $150M in convertible senior notes.
• $SYRE plans to offer $200M in common stock and warrants.
• $AMD: Darla Smith resigns as Chief Accounting Officer on November 15.
• $GOOGL stock declines as DOJ plans to demand the sale of Chrome browser.
• $INTC: Efforts to distribute manufacturing grants under the Chips Act are stalled, with most of the $39B yet to be disbursed.
• $MSTR aims to raise $1.75B through convertible senior notes.
• $MCHP: Ganesh Moorthy retires; Steve Sanghi appointed as interim CEO.
• $SMCI stock rises after appointing BDO USA as auditor and seeking Nasdaq compliance extension
#Upgrades - Sep 05, 2024
$BZH: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $45 (from $41)
$EGP: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $200 (from $175)
$JWN: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $23 (from $18)
$KREF: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $13
$NMRK: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $16.50
$PLNT: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $97
$ROKU: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal Weight from Underweight - PT $72 (from $50)
$STWD: KBW Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $22.50 (from $20.50)
$XPEV: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $11.50 (from $8)
#Upgrades - Sep 03, 2024
$BAC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $45
$WFC: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $65
$DB: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight
$V: Exane BNP Paribas Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $325
$BAK: Bradesco BBI Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $8.50
$XPEV: Macquarie Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $10
$KOF: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $113.70 (from $108.30)
$ADSK: HSBC Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $299 (from $242)
$IFF: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform from Neutral - PT $120 (from $109)
$RDFN: B.Riley Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $13 (from $7.50)
$NCNO: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $38
$AAOI: Raymond James Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $17
$MTB: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $215 (from $183)
$CPAY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
$ADSK: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $295 (from $225)
$NTAP: Loop Capital Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $150 (from $121)
$U: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $22
$FRGE: UBS Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $3