🚨$9.6 TRILLION IN US DEBT WILL MATURE IN 2026
And this could be one of the most bullish things for the market.
In 2026, over 25% of the entire US debt will mature, worth nearly $9.6 trillion.
Most of the debt was issued during the 2020-21 pandemic in short-term borrowing to fund emergency spending.
A lot of people think that such a huge amount of debt maturing is a bad sign, but here's what they don't know.
Like us, the US government doesn't need to pay its debt, but they simply replace it with new debt.
But there's a problem with it.
In 2020-21, the interest rates were below 1%, and now they are 3.5%-4%.
This means replacing old debt with new debt will cost a lot more in interest payments.
It's expected that US debt interest rate payments will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, the highest on record.
This will put pressure on the budget and will also cause deficits to get bigger.
And that's the exact reason I think it'll be bullish for the markets.
Over and over again in the past, whenever governments have faced this trouble, they have done one thing.
"Lowering the interest rate."
And this time, it won't be any different.
President Trump has already selected a new Fed chair who will replace Powell in May.
The economic conditions are also supporting rate cuts as inflation is dropping while the job market is cooked.
President Trump himself has said repeatedly that interest rates should be much lower, and this will happen in 2026.
And what happens when interest rates drop?
Borrowing gets cheaper, and risk-on assets like crypto go parabolic.
One more thing I would add here is that it'll not happen in a week or month, but most likely by the end of Q2 or Q3 of this year.
CPI: 8-month low
Core CPI: 5-year low
2025 Non-farm payrolls revision: -862,000 (worst since 2009)
Large bankruptcies: Worst since 2009
Credit card delinquencies: Worst since 2011
Vacancy-to-unemployed ratio: Worst since pandemic
Housing market buyers vs. sellers: Worst ever
But according to the Fed, every aspect of the economy is strong, and the only concern is inflation.
This is absolutely crazy !!!!
🚨 CORE CPI HAS ALMOST DROPPED TO A 5-YEAR LOW
And this shows that Powell is wrong about the economy.
Today, the US CPI came in at 2.4%, its lowest level in 9 months.
Meanwhile, Core CPI has dropped to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.
This is a clear sign that inflation is now in a downtrend, which is the exact opposite of what the Fed has been saying.
For months, Powell has consistently said that tariff inflation will pick up, but it has been trending down since Q3 2025.
If talking about Core CPI, which is the Fed's favorite inflation tool, it's showing that the economy is heading towards deflation and not inflation.
This means Powell has been wrong about inflation picking up and has committed a policy mistake.
It'll be interesting to see how much it'll cost the US economy, which is already showing signs of slowing down.
🚨 THIS IS BAD FOR METALS AND EQUITIES
Yesterday, it was reported that Russia is considering moving back to the US dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump.
In the past 3–4 years, Russia has strongly advocated reducing reliance on the USD, fueling the major "de-dollarization trade" narrative.
Several other countries have followed suit, reducing exposure to dollar assets — a key reason for the DXY's decline.
The massive rally in gold and silver has also been driven by this trend, as countries dump Treasuries and buy precious metals.
But now this trade may be over.
Russia is now planning to shift toward a dollar-based settlement system, which would boost USD demand.
A stronger USD has historically been bearish for assets, so metals, equities, and crypto will suffer.
Metals will be hit hardest, as a strong USD undermines the debasement trade narrative.
For equities and crypto, it will be bearish but likely not for long.
With more energy supply entering markets after a Russia–US partnership, inflation will drop and the Fed will become less hawkish.
This reduces the odds of monetary easing, but at least removes Fed uncertainty.
Remember, BTC rose in 2023 despite Fed rate hikes and QT.
Risk-on assets love certainty — if this deal is finalized, it will be mid- to long-term bullish for stocks and crypto.
Gold and silver, however, could enter a multi-year downtrend.
The 2019–2020 macro playbook is quietly returning.
Back then:
- QT ended
- Liquidity returned through T-bill purchases
- QE restarted
Bitcoin followed with a massive expansion.
Today, the same liquidity indicators are beginning to align again.
Since QT ended in 2025 and the Fed resumed buying in mid-December 2025, it has already purchased more than $90 billion in Treasury bills.
