Oil spikes have predicted nearly every major market crash in history: 1973 Global Oil Shock - Stocks down 43% 1990 Gulf War - Stocks down 17% 2022 Russia-Ukraine War - Stocks down 19% When oil rises from war, stocks struggle. Today, stocks are already down 4% since the Iran war started. Oil has jumped from $58 to a high of $119. The real question is how long it stays there. Oil shocks hit inflation after 5 to 6 months. Then the Fed reacts.