the "Madman Theory" popularized by Nixon is one of the main frameworks of the ongoing conflict between US, Israel, and Iran everyone sitting at the table is adopting this posture > this theory says that the appearance of irrationality makes non-credible threats as credible and adversaries tend to back off it's a case study of game theory, especially under mutually assured destruction regimes although effective, it assumes the other side is rational enough to flinch. When one player does it, it works well. but everyone here is playing to be the madman and that's why we all see things that we consider irrational from all fronts everyone is rational at their own game, while playing irrationality to the eyes of the enemy using a poker analogy – this is an escalating bluffing game, where your bets go higher to keep playing, to see the next card. but what happens if you are caught bluffing? everyone goes at you with everything they have; the whole table turns on you. that's the risk everyone is at right now and because no one wants to get caught, you have to wonder: how far is each side willing to extend the bluff? How much collateral damage are they willing to absorb just to maintain the appearance of being the craziest one at the table? Who has the capabilities to last longer, and out-bluff the other? Once irrationality escalates, who losses the most when it's revealed that irrationality was a mask? Who can move forward with his bluff given no other chance, and can just swallow it? I find this framework fundamental to understand, whether you are close to the conflict or you are trading markets.