Notes
SECTOR NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
TECH/MEDIA/TELECOM:
🔸 Netflix ( $NFLX): Beats Q1 earnings; strong Q2 guidance.
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA): Down 3% on Huawei AI chip shipment news.
🔸 Cognizant ( $CTSH)/DocuSign ( $DOCU): Expand partnership.
🔸 Disney ( $DIS): Upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research; $112 target.
🔸 Tempus AI ( $TEM): Initiated with Buy at BTIG; $60 target.
CONSUMER:
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Downgraded at Raymond James; price target cut to $195 from $275.
🔸 QXO: Extends $124.35/share tender offer for Beacon Roofing (BECN).
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA): Affordable car launch delayed; low-cost Model Y production to begin in U.S.
ENERGY/INDUSTRIALS/MATERIALS:
🔸 Boeing ( $BA): Returning rejected 737 Max jets from China to U.S.
🔸 Cosco Shipping: Warns U.S. tariffs on Chinese ships threaten global trade.
🔸 EU: Eases methane rules to avoid gas-related trade clash with U.S.
FINANCIALS:
🔸 Capital One ( $COF): Gets approval to acquire Discover (DFS), becoming top U.S. credit card lender.
🔸 Comerica ( $CMA): Beats Q1 estimates; EPS $1.25 vs est. $1.18.
🔸 Global Payments ( $GPN): Downgraded at Jefferies; target cut to $75.
🔸 Independent Bank ( $INDB): Misses Q1 EPS; raises dividend by 4%.
HEALTHCARE:
🔸 Pacira ( $PCRX): Approves $300M stock buyback.
🔸 Regeneron ( $REGN)/Sanofi (SNY): FDA approves Dupixent for chronic hives in patients 12+.
PREMKT
🔸 $AAPL | +4.97%
🔸 $PTON | +4.12%
🔸 $INTC | +3.19%
🔸 $BABA | +2.53%
🔸 $AMD | +2.29%
🔸 $NVDA | +1.70%
🔸 $NFLX | +1.58%
🔸 $MSFT | +1.55%
🔸 $SNAP | +1.51%
🔸 $META | +1.50%
🔸 $AMZN | +1.15%
🔸 $TSLA | +0.99%
🔸 $DIS | +0.90%
🔸 $GOOGL | +0.90%
MORNING BID
🔸 Apple ( $AAPL) plans to invest $500B in the U.S. over 4 years, boosting AI, silicon engineering, and skills development, including a new Houston facility for Apple Intelligence servers and 20,000 R&D jobs.
🔸 Disney’s ( $DIS) “Captain America: Brave New World” topped box office in week 2 with $28.2M, down from $100M debut over 4 days in week 1.
🔸 Microsoft ( $MSFT) is canceling U.S. datacenter leases, possibly signaling excess AI capacity, per TD Cowen; also claims a quantum computing breakthrough, but physicists doubt it, per WSJ.
🔸 Twilio ( $TWLO) upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, citing strong execution for growth and margins.
🔸 Alibaba ( $BABA) plans to invest $52B in AI and cloud infrastructure over 3 years, surpassing its last decade’s spending.
🔸 Domino’s ( $DPZ) Q4: EPS $4.89 (est. $4.90), revenue $1.44B (est. $1.47B), comp store sales up 0.4% (est. 1.63%), international comps up 2.7%; dividend raised 15% to $1.74/share, gross margin steady at 39.2%.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, citing a strong recovery in the next 2 years.
🔸 Target Hospitality ( $TH) notified that the U.S. government will end its Pecos Children’s Center agreement, effective around Feb 21, 2025.
🔸 Wingstop ( $WING) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Guggenheim.
🔸 CF Industries ( $CF) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Bank America, PT $84, seen as fairly priced with balanced risk/reward after selloff.
🔸 Newmont ( $NEM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JPMorgan.
🔸 Westlake Chemical ( $WLK) Q4: EPS $0.06 (est. $1.08), sales $2.84B (est. $2.97B), operating income $66M (-9.6% y/y), EBITDA $416M (+6.7% y/y, est. $524.5M).
🔸 Berkshire Hathaway ( $BRK.B) Q4 EPS $13,695 (vs. $26,043 last year); 2024 investment gains: $3.1B after-tax in Q4, $79.6B full year; 2023: $330M Q4 loss, $3.6B full-year gain; no stock buybacks in Q4.
Equitable Holdings ( $EQH) offers to buy up to 46M AllianceBernstein ($AB) units at $38.50 each, totaling $1.8B, a 7.8% premium over Feb 21 closing price.
🔸 NMI Holdings ( $NMIH) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette.
🔸 BioCryst ( $BCRX): ORLADEYO trial shows positive results for kids aged 2-12 with hereditary angioedema; real-world studies confirm significant attack rate drops in patients with C1-INH deficiency and normal C1-INH.
🔸 Summit Therapeutics ($SMMT) teams up with Pfizer ($PFE) to test ivonescimab with Pfizer’s cancer therapies ( ADCs) across tumor types; Summit supplies the drug, Pfizer runs the studies.
$DIS RESULTS: Q1
🔸 ADJ EPS $1.76 vs. $1.22 y/y, EST $1.42
🔸 Revenue $24.69B, +4.8% y/y, EST $24.57B
🔸 Entertainment revenue $10.87B, +8.9% y/y, EST $11B
🔸 Sports revenue $4.85B, +0.3% y/y, EST $4.7B
🔸 Experiences revenue $9.42B, +3.1% y/y, EST $9.3B
🔸 Eliminations revenue -$447M, -12% y/y, EST -$391.5M
🔸 Total segment operating income $5.06B, +31% y/y, EST $4.28B
🔸 Entertainment operating income $1.70B, +95% y/y, EST $1.45B
🔸 Sports operating income $247M vs. loss $103M y/y
🔸 Experiences operating income $3.11B, +0.2% y/y, EST $2.99B
🔸 Total Disney+ subscribers 124.6M vs 125.3M q/q
🔸 Domestic Disney+ subscribers 56.8M, EST 55.67M
🔸 International Disney+ subscribers 67.8M, EST 63.77M
🔸 Total Hulu subscribers 53.6M, EST 52.34M
🔸 Hulu SVOD Only Subscribers 49M, EST 47.26M
🔸 Hulu Live TV + SVOD subscribers 4.6M, EST 4.63M
🔸 Hulu SVOD only ARPU $12.52, EST $12.84
🔸 Hulu Live TV + SVOD ARPU $99.22, EST $97.98
YEAR FORECAST
🔸 Still sees high-single digit adjusted EPS growth y/y, estimate +8.1%
🔸 Still sees cash flow from operations about $15B, estimate $15.09B
🔸 Sees entertainment operating income growth double-digit percentage, estimate +15.7%
🔸 Sees entertainment direct-to-consumer operating income of about $875M
🔸 Sees sports operating income growth +13%, estimate +11.8%
🔸 Sees experiences operating income growth +6% to +8%, estimate +6.1%
🔸 Sees Disney Cruise line pre-opening expense of about $200M
🔸 Sees equity loss of about $300M due to purchase accounting of Star India deconsolidation
MORNING RECAP
• $ASO announces a $700M share buyback.
• $AEO Q3 EPS $0.48 vs. $0.46 est., rev down -0.9% to $1.29B; cuts annual sales growth forecast to 3%, expects Q4 comp sales +1%, total rev -4%.
• $CHPT Q3 loss (-$0.18) vs. est. (-$0.09), rev -10% to $99.6M; Q4 rev guidance $95M-$105M. Networked charging systems down -29%, subscription rev up +19%.
• $COST November comp sales +3.1%, net sales +5.6% to $21.87B; Q1 sales +7.5% to $60.99B.
• $FIVE Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. $0.17 est., sales +15% to $843.7M; Q4 sales guide $1.35B-$1.38B, comp sales expected to decline.
• $PVH Q3 adj EPS $3.03 vs. $2.59 est., rev $2.26B vs. $2.22B; Q4 rev expected -7% to -6%, EPS $3.05-$3.20.
• $PG now sources Gillette razor steel from India to mitigate potential Trump tariffs.
• $AVAV Q2 rev $188.5M vs. $182.9M est.; adj EBITDA $25.9M vs. $31.7M est.; maintains FY25 EPS $3.18-$3.49, revenue $790M-$820M.
• $APD: Mantle Ridge now nominates only four for the board, down from nine.
• $CULP Q2 adj op income ($2.6M) vs. ($3.589M) est., sales $55.7M vs. $58M est.; expects flat to slightly down Q3 sales, positive EBITDA in 2H, profitable by Q4.
• $GEF Q4 EPS $1.08 vs. $1.10 est.; rev up 8.3% to $1.42B, adj EBITDA down 0.8% to $197.6M; FY25 adj EBITDA expected at $675M low-end.
• $LUV boosts Q4 revenue per seat mile forecast to 5.5%-7% from 3.5%-5.5%, due to pricing and travel demand.
• $FI stock falls as CEO Frank Bisignano is nominated by Trump to lead the SSA.
• $FOUR downgraded to Hold from Buy after CEO Jared Isaacman is chosen by Trump to head NASA.
• $HOOD plans Asia expansion, setting up in Singapore.
NYPD seeks man who killed UnitedHealth $UNH executive Brian Thompson outside a Manhattan hotel, suspect fled into Central Park.
TSM discussing with $NVDA to manufacture AI chips in Arizona.
• $AMAT downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley due to memory market concerns.
• $HPE upgraded to Overweight, target price raised post-Juniper acquisition.
• $NCNO Q3 adj EPS $0.21 vs $0.16 est., Q4 rev guidance below estimates.
• $OOMA Q3 EPS $0.17 vs $0.16 est., raised yearly outlook.
• $S Q3 EPS loss ($0.25) vs $0.01 est., slightly beat on revenue for Q4 and year.
• $SNPS Q4 adj EPS $3.40 vs $3.30 est., Q1 guidance below expectations.
• $VRNT Q3 EPS $0.54 vs $0.43 est., strong SaaS growth, FY25 revenue guidance up.
• $DIS increases dividend to $1.00 per share.
• $SMTC launches $400M stock offering.
RECAP
• $AAP Q3: Sales down 21% to $2.15B, below $2.67B forecast; EPS at -$0.04 vs. $0.49 expected. Plans include store and distribution center closures, and headcount cuts.
• $BZH Q4: Revenue up 25% to $806.2M vs. $777.8M expected; Adjusted EBITDA down 10.5%. Home closings up 4.8%, but gross margin decreased.
• $BV Q4: Adj. EPS $0.30 vs. $0.31 est., revenue slightly below at $728.7M. FY guidance lower than expected.
• $CPRI ends merger with Tapestry, which then ups its share buyback plan.
• $IBTA Q3: EPS $0.94 vs. $0.35 forecast, revenue up 16% to $98.6M. Q4 revenue guidance below expectations.
• $JJSF Q4: Adj. EPS $1.60 vs. $1.85 expected, sales slightly under $429.75M estimate.
• $HP Q4: EPS $0.76 vs. $0.81 expected, revenue $694M vs. $695.24M forecast. FY25 CapEx guidance $290M-$325M, depreciation around $400M, R&D $32M.
• $HI Q4: Adj. EPS $1.01 vs. $0.92 expected, revenue $837.6M vs. $792.98M. Q1 and FY25 EPS guidance below estimates.
• $OVV agrees to acquire Montney assets for $2.377B cash from Paramount Resources Ltd.
• $TTEK Q4: EPS $0.38 vs. $0.37 expected, revenue $1.37B vs. $1.135B. Provides next quarter and FY guidance.
• $NU Q3: Adjusted net income $592M vs. $559M est., revenue $2.9B as expected, ROE at 30%.
• $OPRX Q3: EPS $0.12 vs. $0.06 est., revenue $21.3M vs. $25M. FY guidance below expectations.
• $TARS Q3: EPS ($0.61) vs. ($0.97) est., sales $48.1M vs. $43.44M.
• $CSCO Q1: EPS $0.91 vs. $0.87, revenue $13.84B vs. $13.77B. Provides Q2 and FY guidance.
• $DIS Q2: EPS $1.14 vs. $1.10, revenue $22.57B vs. $22.47B. Forecasts high-single digit EPS growth for FY25.
• $ASML expects sales to reach €44B-€60B by 2030, with 8%-14% annual growth.
• $DDD Q3 prelim: Revenue about $113M, with growth in materials but decline in printer sales.
• $DIGI Q4: EPS $0.52 vs. $0.50, revenue $105.1M vs. $104.08M. Q1 guidance set.
• $JD Q3: EPS $1.24 vs. $1.05, revenue up 5.1% to $37.1B. No Q4 guidance.
• $KLIC Q4: EPS $0.34 vs. $0.35, revenue $181.3M vs. $180M. Announces share repurchase and dividend increase.
• $NN Q3: EPS ($0.11) vs. ($0.16), revenue $1.61M vs. $1.105M.
• $SONO Q4: EPS ($0.18) vs. ($0.41), revenue $255.38M vs. $247.36M. No forward guidance.
• $SYNA to issue $400M in convertible notes due 2031.
🔸 MCDONALD'S PRICE TARGET RAISED BY $20 AT JPMORGAN - $DIS
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on McDonald's to $290 from $270 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The falling 10-year Treasury is once again allowing a "safe to own" stance across the yield-based stocks of McDonald's, Dominos and Yum Brands, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
$DIS RESULTS: Q3
🔸ADJ EPS $1.39 vs. $1.03 y/y, EST $1.19
🔸Revenue $23.16B, +3.7% y/y, EST $23.08B
🔸Entertainment revenue $10.58B, +4.5% y/y, EST $10.37B
🔸Direct-to-Consumer revenue $5.81B, EST $5.73B
🔸Sports revenue $4.56B, +5.1% y/y, EST $4.4B
🔸Experiences revenue $8.39B, +2.3% y/y, EST $8.61B
🔸Total segment operating income $4.23B, +19% y/y, EST $3.84B
🔸Entertainment operating income $1.20B vs. $408M y/y, EST $811.3M
🔸Direct-to-Consumer operating loss $19M, EST loss $141M
🔸Sports operating income $802M, -6.1% y/y, EST $757M
🔸Experiences operating income $2.22B, -3.3% y/y, EST $2.34B
🔸Total Hulu subscribers 51.1M, +1.8% q/q, EST 50.44M
🔸Hulu SVOD ARPU $12.73, +7.5% q/q, EST $12.47
🔸Hulu Live TV + SVOD ARPU $96.11, +1.2% q/q, EST $95.05