Notes
MORNING BID
🔸 Nvidia ( $NVDA):
• Q4 adj. EPS $0.89 (est. $0.84)
• revs $39.33B (est. $38.05B)
• Data center revs $35.6B (+93%)
• Auto $570M (+103%)
• Gaming $2.5B (-11%)
• Q1 revs $43B ±2% (est. $41.78B).
🔸 Amazon ( $AMZN): Debuted Ocelot, its first quantum computing chip.
🔸 Snowflake ( $SNOW):
• Q4 EPS $0.30 (est. $0.18)
• revs $986.8M (+28%, est. $956.26M)
• Q1 product revs guidance $955M-$960M (est. $962.6M); expanded Microsoft partnership.
🔸 Salesforce ( $CRM)
• Q4 adj. EPS $2.78 (est. $2.61)
• revs $9.99B (missed est. $10.04B)
• Q1 guidance below consensus: EPS $2.53-$2.55, revs $9.71B-$9.76B.
🔸 https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI):
• Q3 EPS -$0.12 (est. -$0.25)
• revs $98.8M (+26%, est. $98.1M)
• Q4 revs guidance $103.6M-$113.6M (est. $108.6M).
🔸 Magnite ( $MGNI)
Q4 adj. EPS $0.34 (est. $0.36)
revs $194M (est. $184.3M)
FY adj. EBITDA guidance mid-teens % (est. +12.8%).
🔸 Nutanix ( $NTNX)
Q2 adj. EPS $0.56 (est. $0.47)
revs $654.7M (est. $641.86M)
Q3 revs guidance $620M-$630M (est. $594.39M).
🔸 eBay ( $EBAY)
Q4 adj. EPS $1.25 (est. $1.20)
revs $2.6B (est. $2.58B)
GMV $19.3B (+4%)
Q1 adj. EPS guidance $1.32-$1.36 (est. $1.33)
revs $2.52B-$2.56B (est. $2.59B)
GMV $18.3B-$18.6B.
🔸 Paramount ( $PARA): Q4 revs $7.98B (est. $8.1B); Paramount+ added 5.6M subs (est. 2.58M).
🔸 Pure Storage ( $PSTG): Q4 EPS $0.45 (est. $0.42), revs $879.8M (est. $869.19M); FY revs guidance $3.515B (est. $3.52B).
🔸 Synopsys ( $SNPS): Q1 EPS $3.03 (est. $2.79), revs $1.46B (est. $1.45B); FY EPS guidance $14.88-$14.96 (est. $14.89).
🔸 TaskUs ( $TASK): Q4 EPS $0.31 (est. $0.34), revs $274.2M (est. $268.8M); FY adj. EBITDA margin ~21%.
🔸 TKO Group ( $TKO): Q4 EPS $0.28 (est. $0.21), revs $642.2M (est. $604M); FY adj. EBITDA $1.35B-$1.39B (FY24: $1.25B).
🔸 Norwegian Cruise Line ( $NCLH): Q4 adj. EPS $0.26 (est. $0.11), revs $2.11B (in line); Q1 Net Yield expected to rise ~0.5% y/y (constant currency).
🔸 Urban Outfitters ( $URBN): Q4 adj. EPS $1.04 (est. $0.94), revs $1.64B (+10%, est. $1.61B); Retail segment sales +6.3%, driven by digital and store growth.
🔸 Agilent ( $A): Q1 adj. EPS $1.31 (est. $1.27), revs $1.68B (est. $1.67B); Q2 guidance below estimates; FY25 revs cut to $6.68B-$6.76B (est. $6.82B).
🔸 CareDx ( $CDNA): Q4 adj. EPS $0.18 (est. $0.15), revs $86.6M (est. $84.56M); FY25 revs guidance $365M-$375M (est. $370.02M); Testing services revs +37% y/y.
🔸 Catalyst Pharma ( $CPRX): Q4 EPS $0.70 (est. $0.55), revs $141.8M (+28%, est. $134.2M); FY revs guidance $545M-$565M (est. $558.1M).
🔸 Outset Medical ( $OM): Filed $100M mixed securities shelf.
🔸 Sarepta ( $SRPT): Q4 adj. EPS $1.90 (in line), revs $658.4M (est. $627.58M).
🔸 Teladoc ( $TDOC): Q4 EPS -$0.28 (est. -$0.24), revs $640.49M (est. $639.55M); FY revs and EBITDA guidance below estimates.
🔸 Tandem Diabetes ( $TNDM): Q4 EPS $0.01 (est. -$0.23), revs $282.6M (est. $251.98M); FY revs guidance $997M-$1.007B (est. $1.008B).
🔸 Universal Health ( $UHS): Q4 adj. EPS $4.92 (est. $4.18), revs $4.11B (est. $4.01B); FY revs and EBITDA guidance above estimates.
MORNING RECAP
🔸 EVgo Inc ( $EVGO) launches secondary offering of 23 million Class A shares.
🔸 Mama's Creations ( $MAMA) Q3: EPS $0.01 (est. $0.04), adj. EBITDA $1.7M (est. $3.229M), revenue $31.5M (est. $30.05M).
🔸 McCormick ( $MKC) reportedly negotiating to acquire Sauer brands for $1 billion.
🔸 RCI Hospitality ( $RICK) Q4: adj. EPS $1.63 (est. $0.37), adj. EBITDA $17.9M (est. $13.92M), revenue $73.2M (est. $72.98M); forecasts FY29 revenue at $400M, FCF at $75M with 7.5M shares.
🔸 Tesla ( $TSLA) upgraded to Overweight by Mizuho, target price raised to $515.
🔸 Online sports betting: New Jersey's November handle exceeds $1.2B, with $119M in revenue, up 24.1% from last year.
🔸 Compass Minerals ( $CMP) Q4: adj. EPS loss (-$0.77) vs. est. (-$0.44), revenue $208.8M vs. est. $213.5M; adj. EBITDA $15.6M.
🔸 Expects 2025 salt sales volumes up 9% and 2024 Plant Nutrition volumes up 25% to 273K tons.
🔸 Kosmos Energy ( $KOS) abandons acquisition talks with Tullow Oil.
🔸 Joby Aviation ( $JOBY) completes major FAA certification tests for aerostructures.
🔸 Nucor Corp. ( $NUE) lowers Q4 EPS guidance to $0.55-$0.65, below consensus of $0.87.
🔸 Owens Corning ( $OC) upgraded to Overweight by Wells Fargo.
🔸 Biden administration offers PG&E ( $PCG) a $15B loan for climate and grid improvement projects.
🔸 Affirm Holdings ( $AFRM) issues $750M in Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, plans to repurchase up to $300M in Class A stock.
🔸 Marqeta ( $MQ) downgraded to Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Jazz Pharmaceuticals ( $JAZZ) CEO Bruce Cozadd to retire by end of 2025.
🔸 Rockwell Medical ( $RMTI) secures multi-year deal with top dialysis provider, anticipating $10M+ in 2025 sales, with annual price increases and a term up to five years.
🔸 eBay Inc ( $EBAY) board approved an additional $3B for stock repurchases on Dec 12.
🔸 Mitek Systems ( $MITK) Q4: adj. EPS $0.33 (est. $0.17), adj. EBITDA $15.4M (est. $8.314M), revenue $43.222M (est. $41.31M); FY25 guidance: revenue $170-180M (est. $179.52M), adj. EBITDA margin 24-28%.
MORNING RECAP
❖ Alaska Airlines ( $ALK) to launch direct flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle in 2025 post-Hawaiian acquisition.
❖ Casey’s General Store ( $CASY) Q2: EPS $4.85, revs down 2.9% to $3.95B. Grocery up 8.8%, Fuel down 8.8%.
❖ eBay ( $EBAY) downgraded to Underperform by Jefferies, target cut to $52 from $60.
❖ Stellantis ( $STLA) and CATL to invest €4.1B for a low-cost EV battery plant in Spain.
❖ Toll Brothers ( $TOL) Q4: EPS $4.63, revs up 10% to $3.33B. Backlog down 6.9%, contracts up 30%.
❖ Vail Resorts ( $MTN) Q1: EPS ($4.61), revs $260.28M. Guides net income to $240M-$316M.
❖ Anglo American ( $NGLOY) faces charges in Chile over El Soldado copper mine issues.
❖ Celanese Corp. ( $CE) appoints Scott Richardson as CEO effective Jan 1, 2025.
❖ Fluence Energy ( $FLNC) offers $300M in convertible bonds due 2030.
❖ Planet Labs ( $PL) Q3: EPS loss (-$0.02), revs $61.3M. Q4 revenue expected at $61M-$63M.
❖ Amazon ( $AMZN) and Intuit ( $INTU) expand partnership, leveraging AWS since 2013 for enhanced customer experiences.
❖ Arthur J. Gallagher ( $AJG) offers $8.5B in common stock at $280/share.
❖ Cohen & Steers ( $CNS) AUM up to $91.4B from $89.7B, driven by $1.9B market appreciation, offset by net outflows.
❖ Lazard ( $LAZ) AUM at $234.4B, with $3B market appreciation, $2.3B net outflows, and $2.2B forex depreciation.
❖ Eli Lilly ( $LLY) launches $15B share buyback, increases dividend by 15% to $1.50/share.
❖ Fate Therapeutics ( $FATE) shares positive Phase 1 data for FT819 in treating lupus, showing sustained B-cell depletion and remission in first patient.
❖ HealthEquity ( $HQY) Q3: EPS $0.78 vs. est. $0.72; revs $300.4M vs. est. $290M; adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $118.2M. Forecasts FY24 EPS $3.08-$3.16, revs $1.185B-$1.195B.
❖ Oracle ( $ORCL) Q2: adj EPS $1.47 vs. $1.48 est., revs $14.06B vs. $14.12B est. AI demand boosts Oracle Cloud Infrastructure by 52%; Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 49% to $97B; Cloud Revenue up 24% to $5.9B.
❖ Braze ( $BRZE) Q3: adj EPS $0.02 vs. loss (-$0.01) est., revs $152.1M vs. $148.19M est. Q4 guidance and FY25 revenue outlook raised to $588M-$589M.
❖ https://t.co/dPTowbRrks ( $AI) Q2: revs up 29% to $94.3M, adj EPS loss (-$0.06) vs. (-$0.16) est. Q3 revs forecast at $95.5M-$100.5M; FY25 revenue expected at $378M-$398M.
❖ Micron Technology ( $MU) receives $6.1B subsidy for U.S. semiconductor facilities.
❖ MongoDB ( $MDB) Q3: adj EPS $1.16 vs. $0.69 est., revs up 22% to $529.4M. Atlas revenue up 26%, customer base at 52,600. Raises FY25 EPS and revenue forecasts; CFO resigns.
❖ Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM) November sales up 34% y/y to NT$276.06B, down 12.2% m/m.
#Downgrades - Dec 10, 2024
• $AAOI: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $14
• $BIOA: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $5 (from $40)
• $BSIG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $33
• $CARM: BTIG Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
• $CCI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $100 (from $105)
• $CNC: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $68)
• $DHI: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $183
• $EBAY: Jefferies Downgrades to Underperform from Hold - PT $52 (from $60)
• $FAF: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $80
• $IAC: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $54 (from $68)
• $IREN: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $9.50)
• $MLM: BNP Paribas Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $650
• $MTG: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $29
• $PGR: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $267
• $PINS: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $36 (from $41)
• $PTVE: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $18 (from $13)
• $RKT: KBW Downgrades to Underperform from Market Perform - PT $11.50 (from $16)
• $TOL: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $164