Notes
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
Energy, Industrials, Materials:
🔸 James Hardie ( $JHX.AX) to buy AZEK for $8.75B; AZEK shareholders get $56.88/share.
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX) upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; price target cut to $275.
🔸 Japan's steel output fell 8.5% YoY in Feb, lowest since July 2020.
Financials:
🔸 Ally Financial ( $ALLY) on 90-day catalyst watch at Citigroup.
🔸 Bitcoin up 3% to ~$88K; crypto firms return to India.
🔸 Fifth Third ( $FITB) files mixed shelf offering.
🔸 IRS expects $500B revenue loss as taxpayers skip filings.
Healthcare:
🔸 Bayer ( $BAYRY) ordered to pay $2.1B over Roundup cancer case; plans appeal.
🔸 TOMS Capital pushes for changes at Kenvue ( $KVUE).
🔸 23andMe ( $ME) files for Chapter 11; CEO Anne Wojcicki resigns.
Tech, Media, Telecom:
🔸 Ant Group uses Chinese chips for AI training, cutting costs 20%.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI) downgraded to Sell at Goldman; target cut to $32.
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY:
CONSUMER:
🔸 Colgate ( $CL): New $5B buyback, dividend to $0.52.
🔸 $NCLH: Upgraded to Equal Weight (Morgan Stanley).
🔸 Lennar ( $LEN): Q1 EPS $2.14 (est. $1.73), rev $7.63B (est. $7.49B); Q2 orders 22.5k-23.5k, deliveries 19.5k-20.5k.
🔸 Nike ( $NKE): Q3 EPS $0.54 (est. $0.28), rev $11.3B (est. $11.03B); guides Q4 rev down mid-teens.
🔸 $NIO: Q4 rev $2.7B (est. $2.79B), EV deliveries up 45%; Q1 guide: 41k-43k vehicles, rev $1.69B-$1.76B (est. $2.48B).
🔸 Torrid ( $CURV): Q4 sales -6.1% y/y; guides Q1 sales $264M-$274M (est. $279M), EBITDA below estimates.
🔸 Target ( $TGT): Files $1B note offering due 2035.
Energy/Industrials/Materials:
🔸 FedEx ( $FDX): Q3 EPS $4.51 (miss), rev $22.2B (beat); cuts FY25 guidance.
🔸 Nucor ( $NUE): Q1 EPS guide $0.50-$0.60 (est. $1.09); sees lower steel product prices.
🔸 Planet Labs ( $PL): Q4 loss -$0.08 (est. -$0.02), rev $61.6M; Q1 guide below est.
🔸 U.S. Steel ( $X): Q1 EBITDA $125M (in line), EPS loss guided larger than est.
🔸 BP ( $BP): Elliott pushes for cost cuts, possible board changes (Reuters).
Healthcare:
🔸 Assembly Bio ( $ASMB): Files $250M mixed shelf.
🔸 Editas ( $EDIT): CFO stepping down.
🔸 Foghorn ( $FHTX): Files $100M shelf.
🔸 J&J ( $JNJ): Plans $55B investment in U.S. manufacturing/research.
🔸 Maravai ( $MRVI): Guides Q1 rev $43M-$45M (est. $63M).
🔸 Vor Bio ( $VOR): Files $350M shelf.
Tech/Media/Telecom:
🔸 Micron ( $MU): Q2 EPS $1.56 (beat), rev $8.05B; Q3 guide above est.
🔸 Luminar ( $LAZR): Sees slower Q1, FY25 rev growth 10%-20%.
🔸 Quantum ( $QUBT): Q4 loss -$0.47 (miss), rev $62k; chip foundry launch in 2025.
🔸 Super Micro ( $SMCI): Upgraded to Neutral (JPM), price target raised to $45.
MORNING RECAP
Tesla ( $TSLA): China-made EV sales dropped 4.3% y/y to 78,856 in November.
Month-over-month increase of 15.5% for Model 3 and Model Y deliveries.
Kroger ( $KR): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies, target raised to $73 from $54.
Downgraded by BMO Capital, target unchanged at $60.
Live Nation Entertainment ( $LYV): Launched $1B in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Axon (AXON): Upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley; target raised to $700 from $500.
Crane Company (CR): Agreed to sell engineered materials segment for $227M to KPS Capital Partners, LP. Forecasts Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations at $1.10-$1.25.
Donaldson (DCI):
Q1 adjusted EPS $0.83, slightly above estimate of $0.82; Q1 revenue $900.1M vs. $892.43M expected.
Maintains FY25 EPS guidance at $3.56-$3.72; expects revenue growth of 2%-6%.
FedEx ( $FDX): Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; target reduced to $316 from $337.
General Motors ( $GM): Non-binding agreement to sell stake in Ultium Cells LLC plant in Lansing to LG Energy Solutions.
Honeywell ( $HON): Signed agreement with Bombardier for next-gen aviation tech; updated 2024 outlook.
Joby Aviation Inc ( $JOBY): CFO Matthew Field to resign effective December 13, 2024.
Rayonier ( $RYN): Authorized $300M share repurchase; announced special dividend of $1.80 per share.
United States Steel ( $X): Shares fell after Trump's comments on reviving U.S. Steel and opposing Nippon Steel's acquisition.
Aflac ( $AFL): Quarterly dividend increased by 16% to $0.58 per share.
CleanSpark Inc. ( $CLSK): FY revenue at $378.9M, below estimates of $397.32M. Adjusted EBITDA at $245.8M, significantly above estimates of $141.44M.
Regional Management Corp ( $RM): Announced a $30M stock repurchase program.
State Street ( $STT): Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Keefe Bruyette; target price raised to $120.
PTC Therapeutics ( $PTCT): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital; target price increased to $63 from $39, citing transformative deal with Novartis.
TransMedics ( $TMDX): Narrowed FY24 revenue guidance to $428M-$432M from $425M-$445M. Announced new CFO, Gerardo Hernandez, replacing Stephen Gordon.
Vaxart ( $VXRT): Completed enrollment for sentinel cohort in phase 2B study of its COVID-19 oral vaccine candidate.
Microchip Technology ( $MCHP): Shares fell after lowering December 2024 revenue guidance to about $1.025B. Announced closure of Tempe wafer fabrication facility (Fab 2).
Microsoft ( $MSFT): Facing a £1 billion dispute in the U.K. over cloud software licensing practices.
AT&T ( $T): Authorized $10B in share repurchases.
Raised FY adjusted EPS guidance to $2.20-$2.25.
Maintained free cash flow and capital expenditure forecasts.
Credo Technology ( $CRDO): Q2 revenue $72.0M, above estimates; EPS $0.07 vs. $0.05 expected.
Forecasts Q3 gross margin between 60.6%-62.6%; revenue guidance $115M-$125M.
Bill Holdings ( $BILL): Offering $1.0B in convertible senior notes due 2030.
Ingram Micro ( $INGM): To reduce workforce by 850 associates.
IonQ ( $IONQ): Launched IonQ Quantum OS and IonQ Hybrid Services suite to enhance quantum computing utility.
Seagate Technologies ( $STX): Expects lower production output for fiscal Q3 2025, impacting revenue by up to $200M.
Zscaler ( $ZS): Q1 adjusted EPS $0.77, above $0.63 estimate; revenue $627.955M vs. $606.19M expected.
Provided Q2 and FY revenue and EPS guidance, both exceeding consensus estimates.
#Downgrades - Dec 03, 2024
• $CUZ: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $32 (from $31)
• $CVCO: Wedbush Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $480
• $FDX: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $316 (from $337)
• $KR: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $60
• $OLLI: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $95 (from $100)
fedex: 运营利润率只有大约 5%,不是一个好生意。
#Downgrades - Sep 20, 2024
$ACRE: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $7 (from $7.50)
$CMTG: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $8
$DAN: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $9
$DRI: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $180 (from $190)
$FDX: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $200 (from $215)
$FRO: SEB Equities Downgrades to Sell from Buy - PT $19.05
$INSW: SEB Equities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $55
$NTBL: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
$PARR: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $23 (from $37)
$PB: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $79 (from $81)
$PBF: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $25 (from $47)
$PEP: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $185
$RPD: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $40 (from $50)
$STNG: SEB Equities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $73
$VEL: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Overweight - PT $20
$VLO: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $123 (from $169)