最近半年团队主要研究 #AI 和 #RWA 赛道比较多，被问及最多的问题：‘#AI 是不是已经过了最热的“炒作期”？’，因为我们看到很多 #AI 加密项目或股票，貌似涨速有点慢或者不涨了！ 我的看法是——远远没有。现在的 #AI，差不多就相当于1995年、1996年互联网的阶段。那时候大家刚开始上网，浏览器才出来没几年，亚马逊、谷歌都还没真正爆发，但趋势已经很清晰了。#AI 现在也差不多这样，刚进入加速成长期。 🧐为何这么说？ 1️⃣算力依旧是瓶颈，也是最大机会，做AI要训练大模型，需要巨量的算力。美国这边有英伟达，芯片卖到断货。中国这边因为美国的出口管制，反而倒逼出一条本土产业链。比如寒武纪（Cambricon）这种公司，股价和市值都翻了好几倍。背后逻辑很简单：没有芯片，AI走不动。这就是最底层的“铲子生意”。我自己投股票的时候，最看重这种“确定性刚需”，不管AI应用做得怎么样，算力永远少不了。 2️⃣中国的“Buy China”逻辑，中美关系其实是把“双刃剑”。美国不卖顶级芯片给中国，看似是打压，但反过来成了国产替代的超级机会。没有封锁，中国的AI公司可能还在用英伟达的GPU，也不会有动力自己研发芯片。现在反而逼出了一个完整的国产生态。我在看中国半导体、算力相关公司的时候，这一点就是核心逻辑：自给自足是国家战略，市场够大，需求也刚性。 3️⃣政府是超级风投，你要看中国的模式，其实很像10年前的新能源车。那时候政府补贴电池、补贴买车，硬是把比亚迪、宁德时代推起来了。现在AI和机器人也一样，地方政府出补贴、投基金，相当于官方当“早期VC”，先给产业打地基。剩下的就交给企业家去拼执行力。作为投资人，我的判断是：政府方向决定赛道，企业家决定龙头。 投资的衡量标准，我们看一个AI或者机器人项目，最关键是两个问题： ✅它能不能真正解决痛点？比如机器人，能不能真的在家庭里帮老人、能不能在仓库里搬货，不是光好看、噱头大。 ✅它有没有产品市场匹配度（PMF）？就是说，这个产品是刚需，还是锦上添花？如果只是“看上去很酷”，但没人愿意为它买单，那就不行。在AI模型上也是一样。现在模型满大街都是，但能真正跑通商业模式的，要么解决企业的需求（比如代码自动化、办公提效），要么解决消费者的需求（比如智能助手、娱乐）。我投项目时，最怕那种“炫技”型公司，看上去技术牛，但没落地场景。 长期趋势我判断，未来3-5年里，AI算力的需求会是现在的10倍甚至100倍。这意味着： · 上游的芯片、算力基础设施公司，还是最稳的“吃肉”位置。 · 中游的大模型会越来越分化，能落地的会脱颖而出，光靠堆钱堆算力的可能会被淘汰。 · 下游的应用场景（比如机器人），现在看起来还早，但一旦找到像电动车那样的突破口，成长会非常惊人。 所以我们在 #AI 赛道的投资思路： 第一层：算力/芯片 → 确定性最强，国家战略支持，需求无限大(加密也是类似逻辑，分布式GPU算力依旧有空间)。 第二层：大模型 → 拼资源和落地场景，要慎重挑选，差距很快拉开。 第三层：应用（机器人等） → 风险大，但如果踩中龙头，可能是百倍回报。 所以我现在看AI，就像看当年的互联网和新能源车。远远没到泡沫破灭的时候，反而刚刚进入“加速跑道”。🧐

#AI 时代，👇是我们比较看好的美股 #AI 公司： 最近英伟达老板黄仁勋提到，我们仍处于人工智能的早期阶段。现阶段仍然处于超大规模企业部署阶段，属于第二阶段，如👇图。 • 第一阶段(核心基础设施)： $NVDA ， $ASML ， $AMD ， $TSM ， $AVGO ， $NBIS • 第二阶段(超大规模企业)： $MSFT ， $META ， $GOOGL ， $AMZN • 第三阶段(平台型)： $PLTR ， $NOW ， $TEM ， $CRWD ， $NET • 第四阶段(应用集成)： $SPOT ， $SHOP ， $NFLX ， $TSLA ， $LMND ， $FIG

And boom goes the dynamite. $LMND Is this the hottest weekly chart out there right now? 🧨

I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend Subscriber Agenda Video: Why did miners fade into the close? Charts: New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over) Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE

So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪 -Weekend Agenda for Subs Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted

Weekend Updates in Subs: Video: #BTC/proxies-Securing gains strategy Charts: Speculative paths and near term targets Expansion: $BTC, $GME Bottom formations: $CLSK, Miners/#BTC, $ACB, $TLRY, $CGC, $LCID On-going corrective: $SMCI, $AMD, $TSLA, $LMND Subscriber request: $GRAB, $XPEV

投资的alpha，就是要找到市场犯错的机会

MORNING RECAP • Target Corp. ( $TGT): Shares fell after Q3 results missed expectations; EPS $1.85 vs. $2.30 est., sales up 0.9% to $25.23B missing $25.74B est., and operating margin at 4.6% vs. 5.6% est. FY EPS guidance lowered to $8.30-$8.90 from $9-$9.70. • Azek Company ( $AZEK): Beat Q4 expectations with EPS at $0.29 vs. $0.27 est., adjusted EBITDA $91.8M vs. $88.1M, and sales at $348.22M. FY25 guidance: revenue $1.51B-$1.54B, adjusted EBITDA $400M-$415M. • Chewy ( $CHWY): Upgraded to 'Buy' by Bank America with price target raised to $40 from $24. • Delta Air Lines ( $DAL): Projects mid-single digit revenue growth for 2025, with capacity expansion up to 4%. • La-Z-Boy ( $LZB): Q2 EPS $0.71 vs. $0.64 est., sales up 1.9% to $521M, Q3 guidance provided, dividend raised to $0.22. • Uber ( $UBER): Launched Uber XXL for airport travel in 60+ airports and new reservation features with flight tracking. • AeroVironment ( $AVAV): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies. • DT Midstream ( $DTM): Acquires three pipelines from Oneok for $1.2B, spanning 1,300 miles across seven Midwest states. • Dycom ( $DY): Q3 EPS $2.68 vs. $2.26 est., revenue $1.27B vs. $1.22B est.; anticipates mid- to high single-digit revenue growth in Q4. • Patrick Industries ( $PATK): Announces a 3-for-2 stock split. • Powell Industries ( $POWL): Q4 revenue up 32.1% to $275.1M, but missed $284.3M est.; EPS $3.77 vs. $3.55 est.; orders up 56% to $267M, backlog steady at $1.3B, expects strong FY25. • SolarEdge ( $SEDG): Upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Guggenheim, previous $10 price target dropped. • Forestar Group ( $FOR): Files for potential sale of up to $300M in common stock. • JPMorgan ( $JPM): Downgraded to Perform from Outperform by Oppenheimer due to valuation. • Lemonade ( $LMND): Upgraded to equal weight from underweight by Morgan Stanley post-investor day. • StoneX Group ( $SNEX): Q4 EPS $2.32 vs $2.05 est., net revenue $454.8M vs $462.98M est. • XP Inc. ( $XP): Launches a buyback program up to R$1.0B; Q3 EPS as expected at 2.18, revenue slightly below at 4.319B; active clients increased to 4.7M. • Concentra Group Holdings Inc. ( $CON) will replace Myers Industries Inc. (MYE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 on November 27, following a distribution by Select Medical Holdings Corp. (SEM). • Pfizer ( $PFE) appointed Chris Boshoff as its R&D chief starting January 1. It also received EC approval for Hympavzi for hemophilia treatment. • Sangamo Therapeutics ( $SGMO) received FDA clearance for ST-503 human trials, with enrollment planned for mid-2025. • Varex Imaging ( $VREX) reported Q4 EPS at $0.19, beating the $0.09 estimate, but revenue dropped 10% to $205.7M. Forecasts Q1 revenue between $195M-$215M. • Viking Therapeutics ( $VKTX) shared positive mid-stage trial results for VK2809, showing significant improvement in liver fibrosis over placebo. • Comcast Corp. ( $CMCSA) is set to spin off cable channels like MSNBC, CNBC, and USA to reduce exposure to declining viewership and ad revenue, keeping NBC and Peacock, per WSJ. • Dolby Labs ( $DLB) Q4 EPS $0.81 vs. $0.70 est., revenue slightly below at $305M. Forecasts Q1 revenue $330-360M and FY revenue $1.33-1.39B. • Flex Ltd ( $FLEX) will replace Azenta Inc. ( $AZTA) in S&P MidCap 400, with Azenta moving to S&P SmallCap 600, effective November 25. • Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q4 EPS $1.65 vs. $1.57 est., revenue at $1.287B. Q1 guidance: revenue $1.265-1.285B, EPS $1.65-1.71. • https://t.co/jK5z8CZLV2 ( $WIX) Q3 EPS $1.62 vs. $1.51 est., revenue $444.67M vs. $457.9M est. Increases FY24 revenue and bookings forecasts. • ZoomInfo Technologies ( $ZI) Chairman Schuck purchased 492,500 shares at $10.25 each on November 15, transaction worth $5,049,750.

#Downgrades - Nov 20, 2024 • $BE: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $24.50 (from $17.20) • $BOOM: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8 (from $16) • $ENR: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $36 • $FIS: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral • $FMCC: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4 (from $2.50) • $FN: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $178 (from $194) • $FNMA: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $3 (from $2) • $JPM: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform • $LMND: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $42 • $MLSS: Benchmark Downgrades to Speculative Buy from Buy - PT $1.25 • $NOG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $45 (from $43) • $OCSL: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $17) • $SQ: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $88 • $TOST: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $37 • $WB: CCB Int'l Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $9.90

#Upgrades - Nov 20, 2024 • $AVAV: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $230 (from $240) • $CHWY: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $40 (from $24) • $ENR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $39 (from $32) • $GLPI: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $54 (from $49) • $INSP: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $255 (from $220) • $LMND: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from underweight - PT $42 (from $23) • $NWL: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $10 (from $8) • $SEDG: Guggenheim Upgrades to Neutral from Sell • $XPEV: CMB International Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $16 (from $8)