Notes
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
MORNING RECAP
• Target Corp. ( $TGT): Shares fell after Q3 results missed expectations; EPS $1.85 vs. $2.30 est., sales up 0.9% to $25.23B missing $25.74B est., and operating margin at 4.6% vs. 5.6% est. FY EPS guidance lowered to $8.30-$8.90 from $9-$9.70.
• Azek Company ( $AZEK): Beat Q4 expectations with EPS at $0.29 vs. $0.27 est., adjusted EBITDA $91.8M vs. $88.1M, and sales at $348.22M. FY25 guidance: revenue $1.51B-$1.54B, adjusted EBITDA $400M-$415M.
• Chewy ( $CHWY): Upgraded to 'Buy' by Bank America with price target raised to $40 from $24.
• Delta Air Lines ( $DAL): Projects mid-single digit revenue growth for 2025, with capacity expansion up to 4%.
• La-Z-Boy ( $LZB): Q2 EPS $0.71 vs. $0.64 est., sales up 1.9% to $521M, Q3 guidance provided, dividend raised to $0.22.
• Uber ( $UBER): Launched Uber XXL for airport travel in 60+ airports and new reservation features with flight tracking.
• AeroVironment ( $AVAV): Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Jefferies.
• DT Midstream ( $DTM): Acquires three pipelines from Oneok for $1.2B, spanning 1,300 miles across seven Midwest states.
• Dycom ( $DY): Q3 EPS $2.68 vs. $2.26 est., revenue $1.27B vs. $1.22B est.; anticipates mid- to high single-digit revenue growth in Q4.
• Patrick Industries ( $PATK): Announces a 3-for-2 stock split.
• Powell Industries ( $POWL): Q4 revenue up 32.1% to $275.1M, but missed $284.3M est.; EPS $3.77 vs. $3.55 est.; orders up 56% to $267M, backlog steady at $1.3B, expects strong FY25.
• SolarEdge ( $SEDG): Upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Guggenheim, previous $10 price target dropped.
• Forestar Group ( $FOR): Files for potential sale of up to $300M in common stock.
• JPMorgan ( $JPM): Downgraded to Perform from Outperform by Oppenheimer due to valuation.
• Lemonade ( $LMND): Upgraded to equal weight from underweight by Morgan Stanley post-investor day.
• StoneX Group ( $SNEX): Q4 EPS $2.32 vs $2.05 est., net revenue $454.8M vs $462.98M est.
• XP Inc. ( $XP): Launches a buyback program up to R$1.0B; Q3 EPS as expected at 2.18, revenue slightly below at 4.319B; active clients increased to 4.7M.
• Concentra Group Holdings Inc. ( $CON) will replace Myers Industries Inc. (MYE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 on November 27, following a distribution by Select Medical Holdings Corp. (SEM).
• Pfizer ( $PFE) appointed Chris Boshoff as its R&D chief starting January 1. It also received EC approval for Hympavzi for hemophilia treatment.
• Sangamo Therapeutics ( $SGMO) received FDA clearance for ST-503 human trials, with enrollment planned for mid-2025.
• Varex Imaging ( $VREX) reported Q4 EPS at $0.19, beating the $0.09 estimate, but revenue dropped 10% to $205.7M. Forecasts Q1 revenue between $195M-$215M.
• Viking Therapeutics ( $VKTX) shared positive mid-stage trial results for VK2809, showing significant improvement in liver fibrosis over placebo.
• Comcast Corp. ( $CMCSA) is set to spin off cable channels like MSNBC, CNBC, and USA to reduce exposure to declining viewership and ad revenue, keeping NBC and Peacock, per WSJ.
• Dolby Labs ( $DLB) Q4 EPS $0.81 vs. $0.70 est., revenue slightly below at $305M. Forecasts Q1 revenue $330-360M and FY revenue $1.33-1.39B.
• Flex Ltd ( $FLEX) will replace Azenta Inc. ( $AZTA) in S&P MidCap 400, with Azenta moving to S&P SmallCap 600, effective November 25.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q4 EPS $1.65 vs. $1.57 est., revenue at $1.287B. Q1 guidance: revenue $1.265-1.285B, EPS $1.65-1.71.
• https://t.co/jK5z8CZLV2 ( $WIX) Q3 EPS $1.62 vs. $1.51 est., revenue $444.67M vs. $457.9M est. Increases FY24 revenue and bookings forecasts.
• ZoomInfo Technologies ( $ZI) Chairman Schuck purchased 492,500 shares at $10.25 each on November 15, transaction worth $5,049,750.
#Downgrades - Nov 20, 2024
• $BE: HSBC Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $24.50 (from $17.20)
• $BOOM: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $8 (from $16)
• $ENR: Barclays Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $36
• $FIS: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral
• $FMCC: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $4 (from $2.50)
• $FN: B.Riley Downgrades to Sell from Neutral - PT $178 (from $194)
• $FNMA: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $3 (from $2)
• $JPM: Oppenheimer Downgrades to Perform from Outperform
• $LMND: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $42
• $MLSS: Benchmark Downgrades to Speculative Buy from Buy - PT $1.25
• $NOG: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $45 (from $43)
• $OCSL: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $15 (from $17)
• $SQ: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $88
• $TOST: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $37
• $WB: CCB Int'l Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $9.90
#Upgrades - Nov 20, 2024
• $AVAV: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $230 (from $240)
• $CHWY: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $40 (from $24)
• $ENR: JPMorgan Upgrades to Neutral from Underweight - PT $39 (from $32)
• $GLPI: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $54 (from $49)
• $INSP: BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Underperform - PT $255 (from $220)
• $LMND: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from underweight - PT $42 (from $23)
• $NWL: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $10 (from $8)
• $SEDG: Guggenheim Upgrades to Neutral from Sell
• $XPEV: CMB International Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $16 (from $8)