Notes
物理AI的一大步,CES上波士顿动力发布的全新电驱Atlas最大亮点:1、360度旋转关节、56个自由度,机器人头部、躯干和四肢都能360°旋转,完全没有“正面”和“背面”的区别,运动效率高于人类,可以说是对人形概念的一次重构。
2、灵巧手的大进步,看Atlas的演示已经能很灵活地拿起很多细小的零部件,水上的灵活度相比之前和其他机器人大大提高。
3、与谷歌DeepMind达成了战略合作,在把谷歌Gemini Robotics基础模型和新型Atlas机器人进行深度集成和联合研究。这能够让任何形状和尺寸的机器人感知、推理、使用工具并与人类互动,它们可以解决各种复杂的现实世界任务——即使是那些它们未经训练的任务
4、已经开始大规模量产,首批Atlas机器人的量产部署计划已排满,预计将于2026年交付给现代汽车的机器人元工厂应用中心(RMAC)和谷歌DeepMind,该公司计划在2027年初再新增客户。
美股机器人产业地图,川普现在把东大的产业政策学的太到位了。11月末刚签署了AI创世纪计划,现在又开始谋划推动机器人产业的发展。看报道商务部长Lutnick最近一直在与机器人行业的CEO们会面,白宫正在考虑发布一项关于机器人技术的行政令,交通部也正准备宣布成立一个机器人工作组,可能在年底前公布。
为什么要川普推动机器人产业发展:
1)机器人是AI想向物理世界的延伸的抓手,未来AI的载体线上是Agent,线下就是bot;
2)用机器人替代人工是大势所趋,劳动效率和成本考量;
3)机器人技术直接应用于国防,如无人地面/空中/水下车辆和自主系统;
4)更重要是与中国的竞争,事实上当下中国才是全球机器人产业最强者。中国在工业机器人部署上领先全球(23年安装量占世界一半以上,达180万台,是美国的四倍),并计划到2027年主导人形机器人市场。美国担心在机器人硬件和组件上依赖中国(如无人机和电动车市场的先例),因此白宫正制定国家机器人战略,确保“战略独立”。而且机器人产业链上六七成环节都在中国,从这个角度看美国振兴机器人产业任重道远,但又不得不做!
看到这位https://t.co/iEaXtFPeAg梳理的美股机器人产业地图,搬过来。机器人技术正悄然渗透到经济的各个领域:
1. $PLTR 和 $PATH 是整个车队的交通控制器,而$NVDA 、 $AVGO和$QCOM是让机器人感知和行动的引擎和神经系统。
2. $AVAV 、 $ONDS 、 $RCAT 和 $UMAC
正在构建无人机机队,这些无人机机队将为$LMT 、 $RTX和$GD运行的自主防御网络提供动力。
3. $TSLA 、 $HON 和 $TER 驱动工业机器人,实现装配线和重型制造的自动化。
4. $GOOGL 、 $AMZN 和$MSFT 提供连接每台机器的 AI 数据层,而$ROK和$ZBRA提供保持工厂生产线/仓库运转的控制器、扫描仪和移动机器人。
5. $MBLY 、 $LIDR 、 $LAZR 和$INVZ 提供感知堆栈,使机器人能够看到世界并导航。
6. $ISRG 、 $PRCT 、 $SYK和$MDT带来了手术机器人,正在重塑手术室。
7. $RR 、 $OII 和$FARO将机器人推向水下、现场和面向客户的服务角色。
8. $AMZN 部署了数十万个仓库机器人来移动和拣选货物,而$SYM和$SERV则制造了为履行和最后一公里零售物流提供支持的自主移动机器人。
个人看法,在美股确定性的高应该还是特斯拉,老马正在全力以赴推动机器人业务进展。其他onds,rr也值得关注。大家看好美股机器人产业里那些票,欢迎一起讨论下。
上面聊的美股机器人股票,有好几只
在链上美股平台@MSX_CN 上都能交易,可以关注起来https://t.co/SwrikLq3oN


MARKET UPDATE
CONSUMER
🔸 $SPWH Q4 adj. EPS $0.04 (est. -$0.06) on revs $340.4M (est. $329.6M), comps -0.5%. Expects positive comps in 2025; sees FY net sales -1% to +3.5% (est. +0.4%).
🔸 $TSLA sold 78,828 China-made EVs in March (-11.5% YoY); Model 3/Y deliveries +156.9% MoM.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 Oil dips amid tariff, sanction concerns; OPEC+ supply and mixed policies add downside risks.
🔸 $BHP considers spinning off Australian iron ore & coal units.
🔸 $ED files debt securities shelf.
🔸 $SMG upgraded to Buy at Truist.
FINANCIALS
🔸 $OZK raises dividend 2.38% to $0.43/share.
🔸 $SCHW upgraded to Buy at Citi, PT raised to $102 (from $85).
🔸 $SMA prices 27M-share offering at $30.00.
🔸 $V offers AAPL ~$100M for Apple Card deal (WSJ).
HEALTHCARE
🔸 $ANGO Q3 adj. EPS -$0.08 (est. -$0.13) on revs $72M (est. $70.3M); raises FY guidance.
🔸 $EWTX reports positive Phase 2 data for EDG-7500 in HCM trial.
🔸 $LLY clarifies no ties to HIMS, Zepbound prescribable by any licensed provider.
🔸 $ENOV names Damien McDonald CEO (effective May 12).
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 $MBLY selects VLN’s VA7000 chipsets for autonomous driving.
🔸 $NCNO Q4 adj. EPS -$0.09 (est. $0.19) on revs $141.4M (est. $140.8M); announces $100M buyback; guides Q1 revs $138.75-$140.75M (est. $145.47M) and EPS $0.15-$0.16 (est. $0.21).
🔸 $RMBL fires CFO Tiffany Kice (effective April 2, 2025), appoints Michael Quartieri as interim CFO.
MORNING BID
🔸 OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA ( $NVDA) by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM)
🔸 ChipMOS Technologies ( $IMOS): Expects 6.3% revenue growth for 2024, despite a 5.4% YoY decline in Dec 2024 and 5.7% YoY decline in Q4 2024. Plans to buy back shares up to T$17.39B.
🔸 Mobileye ( $MBLY): Upgraded to Neutral by Bank of America, citing limited downside risk and bottoming sentiment.
🔸 Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): Q1 revenue expected at the lower end of guidance due to a $161M (NT$5.3B, net of insurance) impact from a late January earthquake in southern Taiwan.
🔸 Edgewell Personal Care ( $EPC): Q1 adj. EPS $0.07 (est. $0.12); Q1 revs $478.4M (est. $480.16M). FY25 outlook: adj. EPS at lower end of $3.15-$3.35 (est. $3.18), adj. EBITDA at lower end of $356M-$368M, capex 2.5%-3% of revenue.
🔸 Rivian ( $RIVN): Now selling delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the US, over a year after ending exclusivity with Amazon ( $AMZN).
🔸 Sun Country Airlines ( $SNCY): Announces secondary offering of 6.3M shares and $10M share repurchase from underwriters.
🔸 Illumina ( $ILMN): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Merck ( $MRK): Downgraded to Hold from Buy by TD Cowen, price target cut to $100 from $121.
🔸 Pliant Therapeutics ( $PLRX): Shares fall as it pauses enrollment and dosing in the ongoing Beacon-IPF Phase 2b trial of bexotegrast for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
🔸 BP Plc ( $BP): Shares rise after Elliott Management takes a stake, expected to push for strategy and board changes.
🔸 ConocoPhillips ( $COP): Downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy by Raymond James.
🔸 Spirit AeroSystems ( $SPR): Q4 2024 net revenues $1.66B (down from $1.81B YoY, above est. $1.53B); reported $401M in net forward loss charges.
🔸 US Metals Stocks: Shares of Cleveland Cliffs ( $CLF), Nucor ( $NUE), Alcoa ( $AA), and others rise after Trump announces 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation.
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
#Upgrades - Dec 05, 2024
• $BRKR: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $60
• $COP: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $123 (from $120)
• $DEO: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $141 (from $129)
• $EXAS: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $72 (from $48)
• $GTES: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $25 (from $21)
• $HPE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $28 (from $23)
• $ITW: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $270 (from $230)
• $MBLY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
• $MGA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
• $OKTA: Bernstein Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $129 (from $123)
• $ROK: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $290 (from $255)
• $WTW: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform - PT $400 (from $365)
#Downgrades - Oct 11, 2024
$ACDC: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $7
$ALTM: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
$FLYW: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $18 (from $20)
$GD: Seaport Research Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$GM: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $49
$MBLY: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $13 (from $30)
$NAPA: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $11.10 (from $11)
$SQM: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $44 (from $55)
#Downgrades - Oct 02, 2024
$NKE: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $89
$GRTS: Jones Trading Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SSTK: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $8)
$GEV: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PRMW: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PBF: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $40 (from $53)
$HOG: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $40 (from $44)
$MELI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $2,400
$FMBH: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $42
$NTB: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $41 (from $44)
$ESQ: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $72 (from $68)
$TMUS: Raymond James Downgrades to Outperform from Strong Buy - PT $221 (from $208)
$IBM: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $215
$STTK: Needham Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SITC: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $19
$PVH: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $107 (from $130)
$CRL: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $215 (from $250)
$TEM: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $60 (from $45)
$ZIM: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $25
$KZR: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$MBLY: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $12
$GRTS: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $3)











