Notes
MARKET UPDATE
CONSUMER
🔸 $SPWH Q4 adj. EPS $0.04 (est. -$0.06) on revs $340.4M (est. $329.6M), comps -0.5%. Expects positive comps in 2025; sees FY net sales -1% to +3.5% (est. +0.4%).
🔸 $TSLA sold 78,828 China-made EVs in March (-11.5% YoY); Model 3/Y deliveries +156.9% MoM.
ENERGY, INDUSTRIALS & MATERIALS
🔸 Oil dips amid tariff, sanction concerns; OPEC+ supply and mixed policies add downside risks.
🔸 $BHP considers spinning off Australian iron ore & coal units.
🔸 $ED files debt securities shelf.
🔸 $SMG upgraded to Buy at Truist.
FINANCIALS
🔸 $OZK raises dividend 2.38% to $0.43/share.
🔸 $SCHW upgraded to Buy at Citi, PT raised to $102 (from $85).
🔸 $SMA prices 27M-share offering at $30.00.
🔸 $V offers AAPL ~$100M for Apple Card deal (WSJ).
HEALTHCARE
🔸 $ANGO Q3 adj. EPS -$0.08 (est. -$0.13) on revs $72M (est. $70.3M); raises FY guidance.
🔸 $EWTX reports positive Phase 2 data for EDG-7500 in HCM trial.
🔸 $LLY clarifies no ties to HIMS, Zepbound prescribable by any licensed provider.
🔸 $ENOV names Damien McDonald CEO (effective May 12).
TECH, MEDIA & TELECOM
🔸 $MBLY selects VLN’s VA7000 chipsets for autonomous driving.
🔸 $NCNO Q4 adj. EPS -$0.09 (est. $0.19) on revs $141.4M (est. $140.8M); announces $100M buyback; guides Q1 revs $138.75-$140.75M (est. $145.47M) and EPS $0.15-$0.16 (est. $0.21).
🔸 $RMBL fires CFO Tiffany Kice (effective April 2, 2025), appoints Michael Quartieri as interim CFO.
MORNING BID
🔸 OpenAI: Plans to reduce reliance on NVIDIA ( $NVDA) by developing its first in-house AI chip, with design finalization in the next few months. Chips will be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM)
🔸 ChipMOS Technologies ( $IMOS): Expects 6.3% revenue growth for 2024, despite a 5.4% YoY decline in Dec 2024 and 5.7% YoY decline in Q4 2024. Plans to buy back shares up to T$17.39B.
🔸 Mobileye ( $MBLY): Upgraded to Neutral by Bank of America, citing limited downside risk and bottoming sentiment.
🔸 Taiwan Semiconductor ( $TSM): Q1 revenue expected at the lower end of guidance due to a $161M (NT$5.3B, net of insurance) impact from a late January earthquake in southern Taiwan.
🔸 Edgewell Personal Care ( $EPC): Q1 adj. EPS $0.07 (est. $0.12); Q1 revs $478.4M (est. $480.16M). FY25 outlook: adj. EPS at lower end of $3.15-$3.35 (est. $3.18), adj. EBITDA at lower end of $356M-$368M, capex 2.5%-3% of revenue.
🔸 Rivian ( $RIVN): Now selling delivery vans to fleets of all sizes in the US, over a year after ending exclusivity with Amazon ( $AMZN).
🔸 Sun Country Airlines ( $SNCY): Announces secondary offering of 6.3M shares and $10M share repurchase from underwriters.
🔸 Illumina ( $ILMN): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Barclays.
🔸 Merck ( $MRK): Downgraded to Hold from Buy by TD Cowen, price target cut to $100 from $121.
🔸 Pliant Therapeutics ( $PLRX): Shares fall as it pauses enrollment and dosing in the ongoing Beacon-IPF Phase 2b trial of bexotegrast for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
🔸 BP Plc ( $BP): Shares rise after Elliott Management takes a stake, expected to push for strategy and board changes.
🔸 ConocoPhillips ( $COP): Downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy by Raymond James.
🔸 Spirit AeroSystems ( $SPR): Q4 2024 net revenues $1.66B (down from $1.81B YoY, above est. $1.53B); reported $401M in net forward loss charges.
🔸 US Metals Stocks: Shares of Cleveland Cliffs ( $CLF), Nucor ( $NUE), Alcoa ( $AA), and others rise after Trump announces 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in latest trade escalation.
I hope everybody had a nice week. Great to see the reactions we did as a lot of impulse signals triggered where we expected them to(when the least were expecting it once again)💪Lots to unpack and dive into this weekend
Subscriber Agenda
Video: Why did miners fade into the close?
Charts:
New Impulse- #BTC LTF potential paths, $MARA, $RIOT, $CLSK, $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, $SMLR, $XRP, $LINK, $LTC, $HOOD, $QQQ, $IWM, $SPY, $MSTR, $ETH, $DOGE
Ongoing Corrective- $TSLA, $PLTR, $SOFI, $MBLY, $MU, $PYPL, $CELH, $UPST(some of these names made big moves this week but I'm not sold corrections are over)
Correction Nearing Completion?- $CGC, $SQ, $NIO, $JD, $AMC, $LMND
Subscriber Requests- $XLM, $RUNE
So it's the weekend and that means time to relax/take it easy...what that looks like over hear is 2 a days in the gym, loading up on nature's medicine(steak, eggs, fruit, veggies), and diving into the charts 💪
-Weekend Agenda for Subs
Video: $BTC Miners what I saw in $MSTR prior to its 4x move that I'm now seeing in the miners
Charts: Speculative paths+Upside/Downside targets
Early Expansion- $LCID, $MBLY, $RIVN, $LTC
Expansion- $BTC, $SQ, $PLTR, $ARKK, $NVDA, $DOGE, $XRP, $AMZN, $MSTR
Pre-Expansion- $MARA, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $BTBT, $WULF, $CIFR, $BITF, $WGMI
Bottom Formations- $BLNK, $AMC, $ARKG, $CELH
On-Going Corrective- $TSLA, $AMD, $MU, $LMND
Requests- Subscribers chart requests will be posted
#Upgrades - Dec 05, 2024
• $BRKR: Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Neutral from Sell - PT $60
• $COP: JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $123 (from $120)
• $DEO: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $141 (from $129)
• $EXAS: CFRA Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $72 (from $48)
• $GTES: Barclays Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $25 (from $21)
• $HPE: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $28 (from $23)
• $ITW: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $270 (from $230)
• $MBLY: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Outperform from Peerperform
• $MGA: Wolfe Research Upgrades to Peerperform from Underperform
• $OKTA: Bernstein Upgrades to Outperform from Market Perform - PT $129 (from $123)
• $ROK: Barclays Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $290 (from $255)
• $WTW: Raymond James Upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform - PT $400 (from $365)
#Downgrades - Oct 11, 2024
$ACDC: Stifel Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $7
$ALTM: KeyBanc Downgrades to Sector Weight from Overweight
$FLYW: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $18 (from $20)
$GD: Seaport Research Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$GM: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $49
$MBLY: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $13 (from $30)
$NAPA: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $11.10 (from $11)
$SQM: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $44 (from $55)
#Downgrades - Oct 02, 2024
$NKE: CFRA Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $89
$GRTS: Jones Trading Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SSTK: Citi Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $2 (from $8)
$GEV: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PRMW: Raymond James Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform
$PBF: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $40 (from $53)
$HOG: Baird Downgrades to Neutral from Outperform - PT $40 (from $44)
$MELI: JPMorgan Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $2,400
$FMBH: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $42
$NTB: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $41 (from $44)
$ESQ: KBW Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $72 (from $68)
$TMUS: Raymond James Downgrades to Outperform from Strong Buy - PT $221 (from $208)
$IBM: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $215
$STTK: Needham Downgrades to Hold from Buy
$SITC: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Equal Weight from Overweight - PT $19
$PVH: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $107 (from $130)
$CRL: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $215 (from $250)
$TEM: BofA Securities Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $60 (from $45)
$ZIM: Jefferies Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $25
$KZR: H.C. Wainwright Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
$MBLY: BNP Paribas Exane Downgrades to Underperform from Neutral - PT $12
$GRTS: B.Riley Downgrades to Neutral from Buy - PT $1 (from $3)